The Future of Cooperstown Part two
Relievers heavily populate the HOF Monitor list between Smoltz and Santana: Hoffman, Franco, Mesa, Wagner, Hernandez, Percival, Todd Jones, Benitez, and Mike Stanton. I'm going to go ahead and ignore everyone here except Hoffman and Wagner because if anyone seriously thinks these guys belong in Cooperstown they are either a close personal friend to the player or very stupid.
Wagner and Hoffman have been the second and third best closers in baseball for the past ten years racking up tons of saves and great numbers in the process. However they have combined for a grand total of zero games started, zero 100 inning seasons, and zero world series rings. Bruce Sutter is the only player in the hall who did not start a single game his entire career. There is no pitcher in the hall that did not have at least two 100 inning seasons, including those who were primarily relievers. I believe Sutter is in for the sole reason that he popularized the use of the splitter something neither Wagner nor Hoffman did. Although you could make a similar argument with Hoffman's change up.
Wagner has been a much more dominant pitcher than Hoffman for much of his career. Wagner has much better career averages for H/9, K/9, and ERA, and has three seasons better than Hoffman's best with his 1999 season standing as one of the best for a closer in recent history. Hoffman and Wagner's accomplishments however pale in comparison to Rivera's. Rivera has been incredibly consistent and dominant since 1996 only once posting and ERA above 3 during those years and only three times above 2.35. And then there's the post season. With a 0.77 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 117.1 innings Rivera is arguably the greatest post season pitcher ever. And that's why he's the exception to the closer rule and Hoffman and Wagner are good, but just not good enough.
Moving to tough position players namely guys who played 2nd, short, centerfield, and catcher. This argument has worked well recently to get players like Ozzie Smith, Ryne Sandberg, and Gary Carter into the Hall none of whom really belong. It will be tried in the future for Biggio, Bernie Williams, (Dr.) Jeff Kent, Larkin, Tejada, Nomar, Vizquel, and Andruw Jones. All seem to be either retired or past their primes and unlikely to improve their state much if at all. Tejada will be hurt by the drug accusations and I cannot possibly fathom anyone voting for Jones, so we will focus on the other six.
Craig Biggio
Craig Biggio is considered a lock by many because he has an arbitrary number of hits that is considered a career milestone. Hits is a stupid counting stat in the first place because the all time hit leaders list reads almost identical to the all time at bat leaders list. Biggio is no exeception to this rule as he had to hang on for six painful years after his prime ended just to get the number. From 1993-1999 Biggio was the second best 2nd baseman in baseball behind Alomar, hewas the spark plug on some very good Astro's teams, and he was a decent fielder. During this time he put up Hall of Fame quality numbers. Once his run ended however, Biggio fell quickly striking out more and more, walking less and less and hitting for a much lower average. His speed was also gone and rather than hitting line drives for singles and doubles as he had, Biggio began to swing for the fences and it really killed his numbers. I'll file him under the 10 years of goodness 10 years of mediocrity category even though it was more like 8 years of goodness, 12 years of mediocrity. Very good player, even better teammate, just not hall of fame caliber.
Bernie Williams
Williams was arguably the most important position player during the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s. He was a very good centerfielder, solid hitter, and great post season performer. In many ways he was superior to Derek Jeter, but Williams just doesn't quite have Jeter's longevity. It took Williams almost four years to blossom into a star whereas Jeter did it almost immediately, taking ROY honors at 22. Jeter also appears to have several more decent years ahead of him to improve on his numbers that are already better. Williams is a better HOF candidate than Biggio, but he is just one or two of his peak productive years shy of getting in.
Barry Larkin
Larkin was the best shortstop in the NL during the 90s and the best in baseball until the "Big Three" (Jeter, Rodriguez, Garciaparra) showed up. He was an MVP, a postseason star, and a 12 time all star yet he was never appreciated as he should have been. He was much like another team leading, world series champion, under appreciated shortstop who is not in the Hall: Alan Trammell. Trammell is not surprisingly Larkins #1 similar batter on baseball reference as the two put up almost identical career numbers. Trammell despite playing in a relatively poor offensive era is not in the Hall, and until that happens Larkin cannot justifiably be elected. Larkin does however deserve to be in before Williams or Biggio, neither of whom dominated their position like Larkin did.
Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar is one of the most interesting candidates in a long time. In just his third full season, Nomar was arguably the best player in all of baseball. He remained their for two years putting up terrific numbers in 1999 and 2000 while playing great defense and separating himself a bit from the other two thirds of the big three. Just as quickly Nomar fell back to earth battling injuries, the fans, and his own head. He eventually fell so far out of favor with Red Sox nation that he was dealt for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz, two players who would help the Sox end their 86 year 'curse' the same year. Needless to say, Nomar was not missed. His post Boston career has never been close to what it was. His numbers are down, he can't stay healthy, and he's not a shortstop anymore. Because he was so great early on, he still has very good numbers, but not Hall worthy.
Omar Vizquel
Though Vizquel is one of my all time favorite players, the argument for him is weak. It is based either on the hope that he will get the almost 400 hits he needs for 3000, or the belief that he was superior to Ozzie Smith and/or Luis Aparicio both of whom are in the Hall. Since it appears that I have the same chance of getting another 400 hits in the big leagues as he does, we'll focus on the Smith/Aparicio comparisons as these are his top two comparisons on baseball refence. Smith: it's hard to argue that Vizquel was a superior offensive player to Smith who put up similar numbers in a tougher era. The fielding argument has more merit. Vizquel was the most sure handed fielder I have ever seen and is the all time fielding percentage leader at short. Smith is said to have had the best range in history, a fact that is difficult to measure. Smith could also do a back flip and played in St. Louis - things Vizquel did not do. Aparicio on the other hand was clearly not close to the player Omar was both at the plate and in the field. What hurts Omar is he came along at the same time as the offensive shortstop: Ripken, Larkin, Rodriguez, Jeter, Garciaparra, and Tejada among others were superior hitters. Though none could pick it like Omar, I don't think you can justify putting a guy into the hall that was not one of the top 5 players at his position for the majority of his playing years.
Jeff Kent
The Dr. really has no business being in this conversation as he only is due to the fact that he has good numbers for a second baseman. Here's the thing: he shouldn't be a second baseman. He isn't a good second baseman, and never really was. He should have been a third baseman for most of his career, and a first baseman for the last few, but that would push him out of the Hall conversation. At least Piazza handled his pitchers well. The Dr.'s greatest contribution was to the humor end of baseball with highlights being the quote that led to me calling him the Dr. and reports that he once broke his wrist crashing his motorcycle in the offseason. I have made peace with the truth that, despite the fact that they might not absolutely belong, some of the guys on this list will make the Hall. But if Jeff Kent gets into the Hall of Fame, I will officially disown Cooperstown and never set foot into the town again. There is nothing Hall of Fame about him, and if the writers are dumb enough to elect him, they deserve him.
Wagner and Hoffman have been the second and third best closers in baseball for the past ten years racking up tons of saves and great numbers in the process. However they have combined for a grand total of zero games started, zero 100 inning seasons, and zero world series rings. Bruce Sutter is the only player in the hall who did not start a single game his entire career. There is no pitcher in the hall that did not have at least two 100 inning seasons, including those who were primarily relievers. I believe Sutter is in for the sole reason that he popularized the use of the splitter something neither Wagner nor Hoffman did. Although you could make a similar argument with Hoffman's change up.
Wagner has been a much more dominant pitcher than Hoffman for much of his career. Wagner has much better career averages for H/9, K/9, and ERA, and has three seasons better than Hoffman's best with his 1999 season standing as one of the best for a closer in recent history. Hoffman and Wagner's accomplishments however pale in comparison to Rivera's. Rivera has been incredibly consistent and dominant since 1996 only once posting and ERA above 3 during those years and only three times above 2.35. And then there's the post season. With a 0.77 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 117.1 innings Rivera is arguably the greatest post season pitcher ever. And that's why he's the exception to the closer rule and Hoffman and Wagner are good, but just not good enough.
Moving to tough position players namely guys who played 2nd, short, centerfield, and catcher. This argument has worked well recently to get players like Ozzie Smith, Ryne Sandberg, and Gary Carter into the Hall none of whom really belong. It will be tried in the future for Biggio, Bernie Williams, (Dr.) Jeff Kent, Larkin, Tejada, Nomar, Vizquel, and Andruw Jones. All seem to be either retired or past their primes and unlikely to improve their state much if at all. Tejada will be hurt by the drug accusations and I cannot possibly fathom anyone voting for Jones, so we will focus on the other six.
Craig Biggio
Craig Biggio is considered a lock by many because he has an arbitrary number of hits that is considered a career milestone. Hits is a stupid counting stat in the first place because the all time hit leaders list reads almost identical to the all time at bat leaders list. Biggio is no exeception to this rule as he had to hang on for six painful years after his prime ended just to get the number. From 1993-1999 Biggio was the second best 2nd baseman in baseball behind Alomar, hewas the spark plug on some very good Astro's teams, and he was a decent fielder. During this time he put up Hall of Fame quality numbers. Once his run ended however, Biggio fell quickly striking out more and more, walking less and less and hitting for a much lower average. His speed was also gone and rather than hitting line drives for singles and doubles as he had, Biggio began to swing for the fences and it really killed his numbers. I'll file him under the 10 years of goodness 10 years of mediocrity category even though it was more like 8 years of goodness, 12 years of mediocrity. Very good player, even better teammate, just not hall of fame caliber.
Bernie Williams
Williams was arguably the most important position player during the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s. He was a very good centerfielder, solid hitter, and great post season performer. In many ways he was superior to Derek Jeter, but Williams just doesn't quite have Jeter's longevity. It took Williams almost four years to blossom into a star whereas Jeter did it almost immediately, taking ROY honors at 22. Jeter also appears to have several more decent years ahead of him to improve on his numbers that are already better. Williams is a better HOF candidate than Biggio, but he is just one or two of his peak productive years shy of getting in.
Barry Larkin
Larkin was the best shortstop in the NL during the 90s and the best in baseball until the "Big Three" (Jeter, Rodriguez, Garciaparra) showed up. He was an MVP, a postseason star, and a 12 time all star yet he was never appreciated as he should have been. He was much like another team leading, world series champion, under appreciated shortstop who is not in the Hall: Alan Trammell. Trammell is not surprisingly Larkins #1 similar batter on baseball reference as the two put up almost identical career numbers. Trammell despite playing in a relatively poor offensive era is not in the Hall, and until that happens Larkin cannot justifiably be elected. Larkin does however deserve to be in before Williams or Biggio, neither of whom dominated their position like Larkin did.
Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar is one of the most interesting candidates in a long time. In just his third full season, Nomar was arguably the best player in all of baseball. He remained their for two years putting up terrific numbers in 1999 and 2000 while playing great defense and separating himself a bit from the other two thirds of the big three. Just as quickly Nomar fell back to earth battling injuries, the fans, and his own head. He eventually fell so far out of favor with Red Sox nation that he was dealt for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz, two players who would help the Sox end their 86 year 'curse' the same year. Needless to say, Nomar was not missed. His post Boston career has never been close to what it was. His numbers are down, he can't stay healthy, and he's not a shortstop anymore. Because he was so great early on, he still has very good numbers, but not Hall worthy.
Omar Vizquel
Though Vizquel is one of my all time favorite players, the argument for him is weak. It is based either on the hope that he will get the almost 400 hits he needs for 3000, or the belief that he was superior to Ozzie Smith and/or Luis Aparicio both of whom are in the Hall. Since it appears that I have the same chance of getting another 400 hits in the big leagues as he does, we'll focus on the Smith/Aparicio comparisons as these are his top two comparisons on baseball refence. Smith: it's hard to argue that Vizquel was a superior offensive player to Smith who put up similar numbers in a tougher era. The fielding argument has more merit. Vizquel was the most sure handed fielder I have ever seen and is the all time fielding percentage leader at short. Smith is said to have had the best range in history, a fact that is difficult to measure. Smith could also do a back flip and played in St. Louis - things Vizquel did not do. Aparicio on the other hand was clearly not close to the player Omar was both at the plate and in the field. What hurts Omar is he came along at the same time as the offensive shortstop: Ripken, Larkin, Rodriguez, Jeter, Garciaparra, and Tejada among others were superior hitters. Though none could pick it like Omar, I don't think you can justify putting a guy into the hall that was not one of the top 5 players at his position for the majority of his playing years.
Jeff Kent
The Dr. really has no business being in this conversation as he only is due to the fact that he has good numbers for a second baseman. Here's the thing: he shouldn't be a second baseman. He isn't a good second baseman, and never really was. He should have been a third baseman for most of his career, and a first baseman for the last few, but that would push him out of the Hall conversation. At least Piazza handled his pitchers well. The Dr.'s greatest contribution was to the humor end of baseball with highlights being the quote that led to me calling him the Dr. and reports that he once broke his wrist crashing his motorcycle in the offseason. I have made peace with the truth that, despite the fact that they might not absolutely belong, some of the guys on this list will make the Hall. But if Jeff Kent gets into the Hall of Fame, I will officially disown Cooperstown and never set foot into the town again. There is nothing Hall of Fame about him, and if the writers are dumb enough to elect him, they deserve him.
Labels: Closers, Dr. Jeff Kent, Hall of Fame
posted by Andrew Manning at
4:04 PM
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