Do Idiots Grow on Trees?

XM 175 - all baseball all the time. Great, right? Wrong.

They have 24 hours of baseball to cover and unfortunately, there are not 24 hours worth of good radio hosts that have jobs.

The middle of the afternoons is usually covered by the two headed monster of Dibble and Kennedy, two guys so bad they make John Kruk look like Rob Neyer. Dibble was out for the day (thank god) and was replaced by Chuck Wilson. I thought this was a sure fire upgrade. I was wrong.

We're at the time of year when awards are on the agenda every day. My current feelings on the topic are as follows: AL MVP: Pedroia or Sizemore, NL MVP and this is an absolute no doubt about it: Albert Pujols, AL CY Cliff Lee and its not close, NL CY: Lincecum but it could change.

The AL MVP could decide itself is Pedroia continues his torrid second half. The AL Cy is a two horse race with Lee the clear favorite with 3 weeks to play. Wilson understands this, he just doesn't understand who the other horse is. "I think a lot of voters are going to look at Matsuzaka's record and vote for him," Wilson said. Whaaa???

Now I could see an argument made for Halladay who leads the league in WHIP, innings, and has 9 complete games. Some dumbass who doesn't understand stats will probably vote for a guy who is the 4th best closer in the AL this year, but will set a record in the single stupidest statistic there is. But, If someone were to vote for Dice-K it would defy all logic and force us to ask, "Why would you do that!?"

Lee has 4 more stars, 45 more innings, 4 less earned runs, less walks, less homers allowed, less hit batsman, less wild pitches, more strikeouts, more wins, a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, more complete games, more shutouts, more quality starts, a higher quality start percentage, a higher winning percentage, a higher team winning percentage in his starts, and plays for a team with a much worse offense. Where exactly is the Matsuzaka argument in all that? It doesn't exist.

They go on to address the V in MVP and say that unless a player is worlds better than everyone else, he should have to at least be in the race to be considered. I'll buy that as the pressure of a pennant race can wear on a guy, so Pedroia would be a great MVP choice. Where they blew their argument was when they listed the example of Andre Dawson with the last place Cubs in 1987. A season where he posted an incredible .328 OBP and 130 OPS+. Jack Clark who was a member of the team that won the pennant posted a ,459 OBP, a 176 OPS+, and a .597 slugging, all of which led the league. So citing a guy who was an inferior player on an inferior team really doesn't make any sense at all.

They finished it off by listing Carlos Delgado as an MVP candidate. That's just stupid and would again call for a why would you do that? He's about the 5th most valuable player on his own team, he is vastly inferior to Pujols in any metric you pick, and his team, despite having a lot more talent and a much higher payroll is only 3 games better than Albert's. I guess he's the MVP because he chose to play in the weaker NL East. There is no argument you can make that Delgado is more valuable than Pujols, or Berkman for that matter.

KRod about to Cash in Big

If Francisco Rodriguez continues his current pace he will save almost 70 games and set himself up for the biggest payday a closer has ever had. He's looking at a minimum of 5 years $75M, and possibly up to 6 years and $100M. This will be a contract that will become the bane of whoever is dumb enough to give it to him.

First of all, as I have said earlier, the save is the single stupidest statistic in all of baseball. It is completely circumstantial, and often times doesn't require you to even be effective in the one inning you pitch. To get a save a game, a pitcher must: finish a game won by his team where he inherited the lead, and either entered the game with a lead of 3 runs or less and pitched at least 1 inning, entered the game with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck, or pitched for at least three innings. This means entering the game with the based loaded, up by one, and no one out counts as a save just as much as no one on, no one out and a 3 run lead, or even worse when you pitch the last 3 innings of a 30-3 blowout.

Second, Rodriguez is averaging less than 1 inning per outing and is on pace to pitch a stellar 72 innings on the year. CC Sabathia has almost thrown half of that total for the Brewers already, and he's been there for two weeks.

Finally, other than the outrageous amount of staves, Rodriguez is having a bad year! His K/9 are down from 13.18, 12.16, 12.08, and 12.03 the last 4 years to 9.33 this year. He's already almost set a career high in walks. His fielding independent pitching is 3.19 which is just about average for a closer.

Spendingh big money on a closer is bad, spending big money on a closer who is slipping is even worse. Giving record money to a guy who just set a record despite not having his best year is a recipe for one of the worst contracts ever.

Lets hope the Yankees bite.

The Future of Cooperstown Part two

Relievers heavily populate the HOF Monitor list between Smoltz and Santana: Hoffman, Franco, Mesa, Wagner, Hernandez, Percival, Todd Jones, Benitez, and Mike Stanton. I'm going to go ahead and ignore everyone here except Hoffman and Wagner because if anyone seriously thinks these guys belong in Cooperstown they are either a close personal friend to the player or very stupid.

Wagner and Hoffman have been the second and third best closers in baseball for the past ten years racking up tons of saves and great numbers in the process. However they have combined for a grand total of zero games started, zero 100 inning seasons, and zero world series rings. Bruce Sutter is the only player in the hall who did not start a single game his entire career. There is no pitcher in the hall that did not have at least two 100 inning seasons, including those who were primarily relievers. I believe Sutter is in for the sole reason that he popularized the use of the splitter something neither Wagner nor Hoffman did. Although you could make a similar argument with Hoffman's change up.

Wagner has been a much more dominant pitcher than Hoffman for much of his career. Wagner has much better career averages for H/9, K/9, and ERA, and has three seasons better than Hoffman's best with his 1999 season standing as one of the best for a closer in recent history. Hoffman and Wagner's accomplishments however pale in comparison to Rivera's. Rivera has been incredibly consistent and dominant since 1996 only once posting and ERA above 3 during those years and only three times above 2.35. And then there's the post season. With a 0.77 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 117.1 innings Rivera is arguably the greatest post season pitcher ever. And that's why he's the exception to the closer rule and Hoffman and Wagner are good, but just not good enough.

Moving to tough position players namely guys who played 2nd, short, centerfield, and catcher. This argument has worked well recently to get players like Ozzie Smith, Ryne Sandberg, and Gary Carter into the Hall none of whom really belong. It will be tried in the future for Biggio, Bernie Williams, (Dr.) Jeff Kent, Larkin, Tejada, Nomar, Vizquel, and Andruw Jones. All seem to be either retired or past their primes and unlikely to improve their state much if at all. Tejada will be hurt by the drug accusations and I cannot possibly fathom anyone voting for Jones, so we will focus on the other six.

Craig Biggio
Craig Biggio is considered a lock by many because he has an arbitrary number of hits that is considered a career milestone. Hits is a stupid counting stat in the first place because the all time hit leaders list reads almost identical to the all time at bat leaders list. Biggio is no exeception to this rule as he had to hang on for six painful years after his prime ended just to get the number. From 1993-1999 Biggio was the second best 2nd baseman in baseball behind Alomar, hewas the spark plug on some very good Astro's teams, and he was a decent fielder. During this time he put up Hall of Fame quality numbers. Once his run ended however, Biggio fell quickly striking out more and more, walking less and less and hitting for a much lower average. His speed was also gone and rather than hitting line drives for singles and doubles as he had, Biggio began to swing for the fences and it really killed his numbers. I'll file him under the 10 years of goodness 10 years of mediocrity category even though it was more like 8 years of goodness, 12 years of mediocrity. Very good player, even better teammate, just not hall of fame caliber.

Bernie Williams
Williams was arguably the most important position player during the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s. He was a very good centerfielder, solid hitter, and great post season performer. In many ways he was superior to Derek Jeter, but Williams just doesn't quite have Jeter's longevity. It took Williams almost four years to blossom into a star whereas Jeter did it almost immediately, taking ROY honors at 22. Jeter also appears to have several more decent years ahead of him to improve on his numbers that are already better. Williams is a better HOF candidate than Biggio, but he is just one or two of his peak productive years shy of getting in.

Barry Larkin
Larkin was the best shortstop in the NL during the 90s and the best in baseball until the "Big Three" (Jeter, Rodriguez, Garciaparra) showed up. He was an MVP, a postseason star, and a 12 time all star yet he was never appreciated as he should have been. He was much like another team leading, world series champion, under appreciated shortstop who is not in the Hall: Alan Trammell. Trammell is not surprisingly Larkins #1 similar batter on baseball reference as the two put up almost identical career numbers. Trammell despite playing in a relatively poor offensive era is not in the Hall, and until that happens Larkin cannot justifiably be elected. Larkin does however deserve to be in before Williams or Biggio, neither of whom dominated their position like Larkin did.

Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar is one of the most interesting candidates in a long time. In just his third full season, Nomar was arguably the best player in all of baseball. He remained their for two years putting up terrific numbers in 1999 and 2000 while playing great defense and separating himself a bit from the other two thirds of the big three. Just as quickly Nomar fell back to earth battling injuries, the fans, and his own head. He eventually fell so far out of favor with Red Sox nation that he was dealt for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz, two players who would help the Sox end their 86 year 'curse' the same year. Needless to say, Nomar was not missed. His post Boston career has never been close to what it was. His numbers are down, he can't stay healthy, and he's not a shortstop anymore. Because he was so great early on, he still has very good numbers, but not Hall worthy.

Omar Vizquel
Though Vizquel is one of my all time favorite players, the argument for him is weak. It is based either on the hope that he will get the almost 400 hits he needs for 3000, or the belief that he was superior to Ozzie Smith and/or Luis Aparicio both of whom are in the Hall. Since it appears that I have the same chance of getting another 400 hits in the big leagues as he does, we'll focus on the Smith/Aparicio comparisons as these are his top two comparisons on baseball refence. Smith: it's hard to argue that Vizquel was a superior offensive player to Smith who put up similar numbers in a tougher era. The fielding argument has more merit. Vizquel was the most sure handed fielder I have ever seen and is the all time fielding percentage leader at short. Smith is said to have had the best range in history, a fact that is difficult to measure. Smith could also do a back flip and played in St. Louis - things Vizquel did not do. Aparicio on the other hand was clearly not close to the player Omar was both at the plate and in the field. What hurts Omar is he came along at the same time as the offensive shortstop: Ripken, Larkin, Rodriguez, Jeter, Garciaparra, and Tejada among others were superior hitters. Though none could pick it like Omar, I don't think you can justify putting a guy into the hall that was not one of the top 5 players at his position for the majority of his playing years.

Jeff Kent
The Dr. really has no business being in this conversation as he only is due to the fact that he has good numbers for a second baseman. Here's the thing: he shouldn't be a second baseman. He isn't a good second baseman, and never really was. He should have been a third baseman for most of his career, and a first baseman for the last few, but that would push him out of the Hall conversation. At least Piazza handled his pitchers well. The Dr.'s greatest contribution was to the humor end of baseball with highlights being the quote that led to me calling him the Dr. and reports that he once broke his wrist crashing his motorcycle in the offseason. I have made peace with the truth that, despite the fact that they might not absolutely belong, some of the guys on this list will make the Hall. But if Jeff Kent gets into the Hall of Fame, I will officially disown Cooperstown and never set foot into the town again. There is nothing Hall of Fame about him, and if the writers are dumb enough to elect him, they deserve him.

Further proof closers are overrated

Ten closers made the All Star team this year, beating out many more deserving starters. The closers were led by the Giants' Brian Wilson. Wilson leads the NL in saves, but is the definition of a mediocre relief pitcher. He has a WHIP of 1.40 and and ERA of 4.37 which are stats even a ROTO fantasy owner can understand. But he's an all star. If he had the same numbers, but was a starter with three times the innings like this guy, he wouldn't be in. He could be a much better reliever who didn't pitch the 9th, like this guy and not get in. He could even be a starter who was much better like this guy or this guy and not be in. But he's got saves, so he must be good, right?

It would be one thing if Wilson was a perennial star stopper having an off year like Billy Wagner sort of is. It would also be forgivable if Wilson was the lone Giant on the team, but again, this isn't the case as Lincecum was a lock to make the team and a good bet to start. This is yet another reason why the All Star game should count for nothing.

I hope Brian Wilson comes in the game with home field advantage in the series on the line.

Closer: The Best Job In Sports

Oh to be a closer. You have all the glory, all the money, and all the fame of an everyday player or a starting pitcher and a small percent of the responsibilities. You get to record the last out of a win (and usually of the world series). You get a salary of 7 to 8 figures. Fan love you. Writers love you. Announcers love you. And the best part is: you get to spend almost all your time hanging out in the bullpen.

A good closer will pitch between 60 and 80 innings per year. That is about 1/3 of what a starter will throw, and about 1/20 of the time an everyday player will play the field. Yet they are paid almost the same amount per season.

Lets apply this to a typical American's life. We'll ignore position players and compare apples to apples. Johan is one of the company's top salesmen. He works 40 hours a week, brings in many potential clients, and is paid a nice salary. Joe gets almost all the clients after Johan brings them in. He generally closes the deal, but the client is almost always ready to buy by the time they get to Joe. Joe works 12 hours a week and is paid almost as much as Johan. The boss values them equally. After a few years Johan begins to draw interest from other companies and rather than giving him the raise he has earned, his boss lets him go to a company in a different industry. Joe immediately gets a huge raise making him the companies highest paid employee. Joe continues to do the same job, but without Johan bringing in the clients, Joe is having a hard time closing as many deals.

It's gotten ridiculous. Team now draft and groom pitchers specifically to be closers. But you can't because closers are sort of like running backs in the NFL. There are a select few who are good every year, but there are many more who are good for a year or two and then flame out and disappear.

Guess who led the AL in saves last year? Not Rivera. Not Nathan. Not Papelbon. Not K-Rod, Street, or Jenks. Not even JJ Putz. Nope, Joe Freakin Borowski led the league in saves.

I heard some talking head recently say that they believed Mariano Rivera was the most important player during the Yankee's dynasty from 1996-2001. Um... No. It was not Rivera. It wasn't Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, or even Bernie Williams. It wasn't anyone in particular. It was their starting pitchers: Wells, Cone, Clemens, Pettitte, and El Duque. Those five pitchers carried that team from April-September and especially in October. The hitting helped, and Rivera was nice to have, but what happened when those pitchers got old? The team stopped winning in the playoffs. They tried to replace them with a long line of guys who didn't work out. Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Jeff Weaver, Jose Contreras, Mike Mussina, Jon Lieber, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Randy Johnson, Chin Ming Wang, and second go-rounds with Pettitte and Clemens. Except for Wang, every one of those pitchers has had success elsewhere, but they were all either past their primes or not able to handle the pressure of winning in New York. The closest they came to winning was in 2003 when they were beaten by the better pitching of Josh Beckett and the Marlins.

A recent article on MLB.com discussed the move of Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation and how team sometimes keep their best pitchers as relievers. The only reason to ever keep a pitcher in relief who could potentially be a front line starter is if a team already has plenty of starters, a situation which rarely occurs. Such was the case with Rivera in 1997. Coming off a stellar 1996 campaign in which he threw over 100 innings in relief he seemed destined to be a starter, but when John Wetteland left via free agency, the Yanks concluded that they had plenty of starting pitching an needed a reliever. With Wells, Cone, and Pettitte leading the way, I'd tend to agree with them that Rivera would not have been much more than a marginal improvement in their rotation. The rest is history. The same scenario occurred in Boston last year when the Red Sox kept Papelbon in the pen, and so far it's turned out quite well.

Don't get me wrong, relief pitchers are an important part of a team. But is the 9th inning guy that much more important than the guys who pitch the 8th inning, or the occasional 6th and 7th innings? And he certainly can't be considered as important as the guy who pitched 1-7, right?

The 4 best pitchers of the last 20 years are Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, and Randy Johnson, and its not even close. With the exception of Clemens, they're all first ballot HOF locks and Maddux should set the all time % of the vote record. To consider mentioning any closer, even Rivera, in the same sentence with these four is an absolute insult to them and what they accomplished. They were just as dominant if not more that the best closers, and they did it throwing 3 or 4 times as many innings. Pedro has a career WHIP of 1.04, Rivera's is 1.03 in 1/3 of the innings. Pedro's career best is 0.74, Mo's is 0.87 despite only having to dominate for a much shorter portion of time. Can you imagine what would have happened if Pedro had been a closer for his career? His lifetime ERA would have surely been under 1.50, and he may have had a few years with a 0.00 ERA. The Red Sox however would have struggled mightily without their ace and likely would have missed the playoffs every year from the time he arrived until 2004 when they finally had put together a well rounded pitching staff.

Rivera has had a stellar career, no doubt hall of fame caliber, but I wonder how good a starter he could have become. I can say that almost every ace starter could be a successful closer, but I cannot say the same about closers becoming starters. It's interesting to see guys like Dempster, Smoltz, and Lowe go from starter to closer and back again successfully. Dempster has arguably been the best pitcher on the Cubs this year, and one of the big reasons for their success. He has made an impact that he could not have made if he was still closing.