NLCS Preview
The upstart Dodgers face the perennially disappointing Phillies in a series that seems to be fairly evenly matched. The winner will probably get beat in the World Series as the AL seems vastly superior to the NL this year, but as the 2006 Cardinals showed, anything can happen in a playoff series.
Starting Pitching:
The Dodgers will send Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, and either Maddux, Kershaw or Lowe 3 times instead of 2. The Phillies will counter with Hamels, Meyers, Moyer, and Blanton.
A month ago, Hamels would have a clear advantage over Lowe, but Lowe has been almost unbeatable since. Hamels is still excellent, the 4th best pitcher in the NL this year, but Lowe has pitched so well (0.59 ERA in September), that he negates any advantage Hamels may have had. The rest of the rotation vastly favors LA with Billingsley, Kuroda and Maddux all being clearly better than their Phillie counterpart. I'd go Lowe in 1-4-7 and have Maddux or Kershaw ready if he falters.
Advantage: Dodgers.
Lineup
Another area where earlier in the season, the Phils would have had a clear advantage. But that was before LA added Manny, brought back Furcal, got rid of Andruw Jones, and sat Juan Pierre. Now, they are at least as good as the Phillies, if not better. They have six solid hitters in Furcal, Martin, Eithier, Manny, Kemp, and Loney. Blake and Dewitt are not as good, but they're not automatic outs either. The same cannot be said for the two black holes in the Phillies lineup. Ruiz/Coste and Feliz are sorry excuses for major league hitters, Feliz especially since he plays a coner position.
Advantage: Dodgers. I'll take Manny over Howard, Eithier over Utley, Furcal over Rollins, Martin over Victorino, and Blake/Dewitt over catcher/Feliz. That gives the Phillies the advatage with Werth and Burrell only. That is not enough.
Bullpen.
An area where the Phillies thrive and could make up the difference with the Dodgers. Problem is the Dodgers have a good pen too. You're looking at Bemiel, Broxton, Wade, Park, Kuo, and Maddux/Kershaw for the Dodgers even without their closer. The Phillies counter with Lidge, Romero, Durbin, Madsen, Eyre, and Condrey. That's 6 solid guys for each team. Lidge is probably a bit better closer than Broxton, but the Phillies don't have the long guys that the Dodgers have.
Advantage: I'm calling a PUSH in an area the Phillies really need.
Bench/Defense/Management/Intagibles
The Dodgers bench is experiences with Nomar, Pierre, and the Dr. but not deep. The Phillies bench is about the same minus the experience. Neither defense is anything to write home about, but the Phillies is slighly better. Torre is certainly the manager of choice over Manual. And the Dodgers have the edge in the intangibles with Manny, Maddux and Lowe. They also have world Champion Juan Pierre. Howard is vastly overrated, and Lidge looked shaky as hell in that last series.
Prediction: Dodgers in 6. I see at least 1 win for each of the 3 Dodger starters. Hamels will steal one and Meyers probably will as well. The Dodgers will beat the piss out of Blanton and Moyer and possibly end this in 4 or 5.
Starting Pitching:
The Dodgers will send Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, and either Maddux, Kershaw or Lowe 3 times instead of 2. The Phillies will counter with Hamels, Meyers, Moyer, and Blanton.
A month ago, Hamels would have a clear advantage over Lowe, but Lowe has been almost unbeatable since. Hamels is still excellent, the 4th best pitcher in the NL this year, but Lowe has pitched so well (0.59 ERA in September), that he negates any advantage Hamels may have had. The rest of the rotation vastly favors LA with Billingsley, Kuroda and Maddux all being clearly better than their Phillie counterpart. I'd go Lowe in 1-4-7 and have Maddux or Kershaw ready if he falters.
Advantage: Dodgers.
Lineup
Another area where earlier in the season, the Phils would have had a clear advantage. But that was before LA added Manny, brought back Furcal, got rid of Andruw Jones, and sat Juan Pierre. Now, they are at least as good as the Phillies, if not better. They have six solid hitters in Furcal, Martin, Eithier, Manny, Kemp, and Loney. Blake and Dewitt are not as good, but they're not automatic outs either. The same cannot be said for the two black holes in the Phillies lineup. Ruiz/Coste and Feliz are sorry excuses for major league hitters, Feliz especially since he plays a coner position.
Advantage: Dodgers. I'll take Manny over Howard, Eithier over Utley, Furcal over Rollins, Martin over Victorino, and Blake/Dewitt over catcher/Feliz. That gives the Phillies the advatage with Werth and Burrell only. That is not enough.
Bullpen.
An area where the Phillies thrive and could make up the difference with the Dodgers. Problem is the Dodgers have a good pen too. You're looking at Bemiel, Broxton, Wade, Park, Kuo, and Maddux/Kershaw for the Dodgers even without their closer. The Phillies counter with Lidge, Romero, Durbin, Madsen, Eyre, and Condrey. That's 6 solid guys for each team. Lidge is probably a bit better closer than Broxton, but the Phillies don't have the long guys that the Dodgers have.
Advantage: I'm calling a PUSH in an area the Phillies really need.
Bench/Defense/Management/Intagibles
The Dodgers bench is experiences with Nomar, Pierre, and the Dr. but not deep. The Phillies bench is about the same minus the experience. Neither defense is anything to write home about, but the Phillies is slighly better. Torre is certainly the manager of choice over Manual. And the Dodgers have the edge in the intangibles with Manny, Maddux and Lowe. They also have world Champion Juan Pierre. Howard is vastly overrated, and Lidge looked shaky as hell in that last series.
Prediction: Dodgers in 6. I see at least 1 win for each of the 3 Dodger starters. Hamels will steal one and Meyers probably will as well. The Dodgers will beat the piss out of Blanton and Moyer and possibly end this in 4 or 5.
Labels: Dodgers, Dr. Jeff Kent, manny ramierz, Phillies
posted by Andrew Manning at
6:14 PM
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