Breaking down the postseason matchups: NL
Brewers (90-72) vs. Phillies (90-72)
This is a match up that I believe hinges on what the Brewer pitchers other than CC can do. All kidding aside, CC will go in games 2 and 5 (the 2nd on 3 days rest, the 5th on 4). That means the Brewers must win at least one of the other 3 games. The starters will be some combo of Sheets, Bush, Suppan (who has been solid in the playoffs), Parra, and Gallardo. I'd bet on Suppan and Bush for sure and we'll see on Sheets/Gallardo for game 4.
Starting pitching:
Brewers: Sabathia and some combo of those listed above.
Phillies: Hamels, Moyer, Meyers, Blanton.
Advantage: Brewers especially if they can get anything out of Sheets. Sabathia is better than Hamels, and Meyers and Blanton are nothing to write home about. Gallardo could also be this year's Jon Lester, Anthony Reyes, or Jaret Wright.
Lineup:
The Brewers offense lives and dies with the homer. They can put a 10 spot up one night and get shutout the next. Except for Fielder, Durham, and Branyan, they do not take walks, and except for those three, they are right hand dominant. This is all good news though as the Phillies don't had a wild starter, have two lefties, and play in a park that favors the long ball.
The Phillies have six solid players led by Chase Utley and the streaky Ryan Howard. Most of the Phillies can take a walk, but they will be facing a Brewer staff that does not allow many. The Phillies are prone to the strikeout, and Howard can be neutralized by left handed pitcher.
Advantage: I'm going to call this a PUSH, but only because of the match ups. The Phillies will send lefties in 3 of the 5 games and their two righties aren't great.
Bullpen
Milwaukee: The only real weakness for the Brew Crew. If this were 2004 when Gagne, and Mota could still get their steroids, and when Riske was still good, it might be a different story, but it's not. They might want to consider Gallardo or Sheets to close because it's going to be scary with Torres out there if he has to face the meat of that Phillie lineup. Gagne and Mota have both been solid down the stretch, so maybe they'll be ok. Then again, CC will probably win or lose the game by himself, so they might not need the bullpen in every game.
Phillies: The bridge to Lidge has been solid led by Madsen and Durbin, but they have both shouldered heavy loads with 1 200 inning starter. Lidge has been lights out all year, but he was also lights out back in 2005 when Pujols hit one that hasn't landed yet... Just saying.
Advantage: Phillies.
Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Brewers have much better bench than the Phils, but they also have nutoriously bad defenders other than Hardy and Kendall. The Phillies are solid defensively with Utley and especially Feliz, but average to poor just about everywhere else. The management is tough to call because Sveum has about the same managing experience as I do, and Manual has never impressed me. I gotta go with the Crew on intagibles with Sabathia the leading reason but also Fielder who has been money down the stretch and in clutch situations.
Advantage: Brewers
Prediction: Brewers in 5. CC will win his second game of the series in a dual with Hamels. The Brewers will find a way to win agaisnt either Meyers or Blanton for their other win.
Dodgers (84-68) vs. Cubs (97-64)
Starting pitching:
The Dodgers will send Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, and either Maddux or Kershaw, probably Maddux.
The Cubs will counter with Dempster, Harden, Zambrano, and Lilly.
The Cubs certainly have the edge in talent and probably success in 2008, but they also have more question marks with health. Lowe has been a big game pitcher in the past, Maddux has been their before and Billingsley is their best pitcher.
Advantage: Dodgers. There are just too many question marks for the Cubs. Scouts say that Harden wasn't even hitting 90 MPH in his last throwing session, Zambrano has been about as consistent as the Diamondbacks were this year, and Dempster just threw more innings than he has in six years.
Lineup:
The best thing going for the Dodgers is that Andruw Jones will get 0 ABs in the series. They also just got Furcal back who may prove to be their saving grace. Oh, and they have some guy with dreads who can flat out rake.. Now if I could just remember his name.
The Cubs are solid 1-8, but don't have that one big slugger like the Dodgers have. They are also right hand dominant with all of their stars coming from that side (another reason to send Maddux).
Advantage: Cubs, but not by as much as it would have been just a little while ago.
Bullpen:
The Dodgers bullpen has been recently stabilized by the return of closer Takashi Saito. They have also gotten solid years out of Broxton, Beimel, Wade, Park, and Kuo.
The Cubs bullpen has been hailed as the greatest all year led by Wood, Marmol, and the recently added Samardjiza. The problem is that they have ridden Marmol for almost 90 innings, Wood is not lights out, and other than those 3, they're kind of shaky.
Advantage: Dodgers. Depth and power in that pen. The game is pretty much over after 7 innings.
Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles:
A slight edge to the Cubs on the bench with Fontenot/Johnson, but the Dodgerss are much improved after getting everybody and their mother back from injury in the last few weeks. Neither team is good defensively but the Cubs do not have the cut off man playing leftfield, so that's a plus. Torre certainly has had more playoff success than Lou including beating Lou's 116 win monster back in 2001, but I like Lou's fire so that's close. The Dodgers definately have the intangibles working for them with Red Sox playoff heros Lowe and that other guy and his 100 million reasons to succeed, as well as the experience of Maddux and the rapping of Juan Pierre (maybe he can go to wrigley field and get that wiggley feel again!!). As for the Cubs. Well, they have that 100 year thing going for them, but come on, they're the Cubs!
Advantage: Push
Prediction: Dodgers in 5. I'm really surprised here as I thought the Cubs would clean up. But the Dodgers are peaking at the right time and have far fewer questions in the rotation. If Harden and Zambrano can pitch like they did in the middle of the summer, then its a different story, but I just don't see that happening. The Dodgers starters really only need to give them 6 good innings which I think they are more than capable of doing. I can't say the same about the Cubs. Zambrano has been kicked around since his no hitter (which in retrospect may have been a bad thing since he had to throw so many pitches) and Harden can't control his pitches enough to last past the 5th much of the time. The Cubs match up much better with the Phillies, Brewers, or Mets, but I think they drew the one team that can beat them. And boy will is be a sad day when they do. I wonder who they'll blame it on this time.
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Wrigley for the mighty Cubs have bowed out.
This is a match up that I believe hinges on what the Brewer pitchers other than CC can do. All kidding aside, CC will go in games 2 and 5 (the 2nd on 3 days rest, the 5th on 4). That means the Brewers must win at least one of the other 3 games. The starters will be some combo of Sheets, Bush, Suppan (who has been solid in the playoffs), Parra, and Gallardo. I'd bet on Suppan and Bush for sure and we'll see on Sheets/Gallardo for game 4.
Starting pitching:
Brewers: Sabathia and some combo of those listed above.
Phillies: Hamels, Moyer, Meyers, Blanton.
Advantage: Brewers especially if they can get anything out of Sheets. Sabathia is better than Hamels, and Meyers and Blanton are nothing to write home about. Gallardo could also be this year's Jon Lester, Anthony Reyes, or Jaret Wright.
Lineup:
The Brewers offense lives and dies with the homer. They can put a 10 spot up one night and get shutout the next. Except for Fielder, Durham, and Branyan, they do not take walks, and except for those three, they are right hand dominant. This is all good news though as the Phillies don't had a wild starter, have two lefties, and play in a park that favors the long ball.
The Phillies have six solid players led by Chase Utley and the streaky Ryan Howard. Most of the Phillies can take a walk, but they will be facing a Brewer staff that does not allow many. The Phillies are prone to the strikeout, and Howard can be neutralized by left handed pitcher.
Advantage: I'm going to call this a PUSH, but only because of the match ups. The Phillies will send lefties in 3 of the 5 games and their two righties aren't great.
Bullpen
Milwaukee: The only real weakness for the Brew Crew. If this were 2004 when Gagne, and Mota could still get their steroids, and when Riske was still good, it might be a different story, but it's not. They might want to consider Gallardo or Sheets to close because it's going to be scary with Torres out there if he has to face the meat of that Phillie lineup. Gagne and Mota have both been solid down the stretch, so maybe they'll be ok. Then again, CC will probably win or lose the game by himself, so they might not need the bullpen in every game.
Phillies: The bridge to Lidge has been solid led by Madsen and Durbin, but they have both shouldered heavy loads with 1 200 inning starter. Lidge has been lights out all year, but he was also lights out back in 2005 when Pujols hit one that hasn't landed yet... Just saying.
Advantage: Phillies.
Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Brewers have much better bench than the Phils, but they also have nutoriously bad defenders other than Hardy and Kendall. The Phillies are solid defensively with Utley and especially Feliz, but average to poor just about everywhere else. The management is tough to call because Sveum has about the same managing experience as I do, and Manual has never impressed me. I gotta go with the Crew on intagibles with Sabathia the leading reason but also Fielder who has been money down the stretch and in clutch situations.
Advantage: Brewers
Prediction: Brewers in 5. CC will win his second game of the series in a dual with Hamels. The Brewers will find a way to win agaisnt either Meyers or Blanton for their other win.
Dodgers (84-68) vs. Cubs (97-64)
Starting pitching:
The Dodgers will send Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, and either Maddux or Kershaw, probably Maddux.
The Cubs will counter with Dempster, Harden, Zambrano, and Lilly.
The Cubs certainly have the edge in talent and probably success in 2008, but they also have more question marks with health. Lowe has been a big game pitcher in the past, Maddux has been their before and Billingsley is their best pitcher.
Advantage: Dodgers. There are just too many question marks for the Cubs. Scouts say that Harden wasn't even hitting 90 MPH in his last throwing session, Zambrano has been about as consistent as the Diamondbacks were this year, and Dempster just threw more innings than he has in six years.
Lineup:
The best thing going for the Dodgers is that Andruw Jones will get 0 ABs in the series. They also just got Furcal back who may prove to be their saving grace. Oh, and they have some guy with dreads who can flat out rake.. Now if I could just remember his name.
The Cubs are solid 1-8, but don't have that one big slugger like the Dodgers have. They are also right hand dominant with all of their stars coming from that side (another reason to send Maddux).
Advantage: Cubs, but not by as much as it would have been just a little while ago.
Bullpen:
The Dodgers bullpen has been recently stabilized by the return of closer Takashi Saito. They have also gotten solid years out of Broxton, Beimel, Wade, Park, and Kuo.
The Cubs bullpen has been hailed as the greatest all year led by Wood, Marmol, and the recently added Samardjiza. The problem is that they have ridden Marmol for almost 90 innings, Wood is not lights out, and other than those 3, they're kind of shaky.
Advantage: Dodgers. Depth and power in that pen. The game is pretty much over after 7 innings.
Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles:
A slight edge to the Cubs on the bench with Fontenot/Johnson, but the Dodgerss are much improved after getting everybody and their mother back from injury in the last few weeks. Neither team is good defensively but the Cubs do not have the cut off man playing leftfield, so that's a plus. Torre certainly has had more playoff success than Lou including beating Lou's 116 win monster back in 2001, but I like Lou's fire so that's close. The Dodgers definately have the intangibles working for them with Red Sox playoff heros Lowe and that other guy and his 100 million reasons to succeed, as well as the experience of Maddux and the rapping of Juan Pierre (maybe he can go to wrigley field and get that wiggley feel again!!). As for the Cubs. Well, they have that 100 year thing going for them, but come on, they're the Cubs!
Advantage: Push
Prediction: Dodgers in 5. I'm really surprised here as I thought the Cubs would clean up. But the Dodgers are peaking at the right time and have far fewer questions in the rotation. If Harden and Zambrano can pitch like they did in the middle of the summer, then its a different story, but I just don't see that happening. The Dodgers starters really only need to give them 6 good innings which I think they are more than capable of doing. I can't say the same about the Cubs. Zambrano has been kicked around since his no hitter (which in retrospect may have been a bad thing since he had to throw so many pitches) and Harden can't control his pitches enough to last past the 5th much of the time. The Cubs match up much better with the Phillies, Brewers, or Mets, but I think they drew the one team that can beat them. And boy will is be a sad day when they do. I wonder who they'll blame it on this time.
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Wrigley for the mighty Cubs have bowed out.
Labels: CC Sabathia, Cubs, Dodgers, manny ramierz, Milwaukee Sabathias, Phillies, Playoffs, right hand dominant lineup
posted by Andrew Manning at
3:49 PM
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