Where did it all go wrong? The 2009 Cleveland Indians

The Indians came into 2009 looking good. They finished 2008 on a high note, were loaded with good young players, and were positioned to dominate the weakest division in the game. They seemed to me to be a lock to win it. Here's what I said about them back in March

Ok, the pitching is a bit of a question mark, but they have the reigning Cy Young winner, and the guy who finished 4th the previous year, as well as a guy who won 18 games a few years ago, a guy who dominated in the world series 3 years ago, and lots of AAA stars in the fold. I think it'll be ok, not great, but ok. Where Cleveland will make it up is on offense. Grady Sizemore is the best all around player in the AL and in the top 5 in baseball, he will get help from a certain bounce back from Victor Martinez, the underrated Johnny Peralta, and rising star Choo, all of whom rank in the top 3-4 players at their position in the AL. Newly acquired Mark Derosa, should provide an upgrade at 3rd and bounce backs are likely from Garko and Cabrera, both of whom had great second halves last year. Francisco in left is rather weak, and Hafner at DH cannot be relied upon, so anything out of either one is a bonus, but the risk is low and the reward is high. Cleveland could win as many as 100 games or as little as 80 depending on the big L-U-C-K, but they return all of what was the best team in baseball down the stretch last year, and have added a solid closer and third baseman, so I like their chances.

So what happened?

Well I was right about a lot of things, but none of it was in the pitching. Carmona bombed again, Westbrook threw the same number of innings that I did, Lewis and Reyes combined for less starts than 2008, and the bullpen was worthless. Lee and Pavano proved to be solid, but didn't last the summer with the team. Sowers, Laffey, and Huff have all shown signs of being potentially good major league pitchers, but have also shown signs of being AAAA pitchers.

Lets rewind 10 months back to the hot stove. You're Mark Shapiro, you have $10-20 million to sure up your lineup, rotation, and bullpen. What do you do? I'd go ahead and make the Pavano and Derosa moves again. They were solid low risk, high reward moves that I liked at the time. What you don't do is give a whole bunch of money to Kerry Wood to close games. You did just fine in the regular season back in 2006 with Joe freakin Borowski closing. The closer is monumentally overrated in the regular season.

You have Kelly Shoppach coming off a career year he can't possibly repeat and several teams looking for catchers: Boston, Detroit, New York Mets. You have the best centerfielder in baseball playing right field. And you have bits a pieces that can be used as throw ins if need be.

What do you need: starting pitching, and 1-2 good relievers.

What should you do?

First, I'd move Shoppach. Try to get a few good young arms such as Masterson or Bucholz. Then, and this is going to be very hard to swallow. I would have tried to trade Grady Sizemore for a true ace pitcher. Someone like Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, or Adam Wainwright. Everyone in Cleveland would have hated this, but think about it: you actually IMPROVE on defense, throw in a full season of Choo in right, and you gain back a bunch of offense, and with the money you save, you can go out and sign an Adam Dunn or Bob Abreu to play left and give you a quality lefthanded bat. Then you bolster your rotation and it looks something like: Lee, Ace, Pavano, Laffey, Huff/Sowers. Not great, but definitely good enough in the AL central.

Then the lineup looks like this:

1. Cabrera SS
2. Derosa 2B
3. Choo RF
4. Martinez C
5. Hafner DH
6. Peralta 3B
7. Garko 1B
8. Francisco or Free Agent LF
9. Gutierez CF

Of course this is all based on the idea, that Shoppach could have landed them a few live arms, and that Sizemore could have brought in a true ace pitcher, and that the resulting angry mob wouldn't have killed Shapiro.

Then again hindsight is 20/20, but anyone could see that the team need pitching, had offense to spare, and had a gem defender in Gutz being wasted in rightfield.

Where do we go from here?
Well, its obvious that next year is going to be a rebuilding year. The first step is to higher a manager and a pitching coach with an established track record. Someone like Bobby Valentine would be a nice fit. They need someone who will be hard nosed and not put up with crap from young players. I think a big problem with wedge was that he was too nice. A pitching coach to work with all the young arms is important too. Anyone know what Leo Mazzone is doing???

The good news is that they got a ton back in the Lee, Martinez, and Derosa deals. Its young, but its deep, and should pan out in a year or two. Still, I think they should seek to make more. Lets try to move Peralta, Hafner, Westbrook, and Wood and get anything we can for them. None of them have very high stocks right now, but if they get off to a good first few months they should be movable.

Next year should be all about giving the kids a chance - Florida Marlin style. Laporta, Brantley and Santana should see significant time at the big league level. It's a pivotal season for Carmona and he should spend the winter getting his groove back. There is no excuse for him to bomb again. He dominated for a season, and he hasn't lost much velocity or movement, only command and confidence which with work should return. Masterson, Laffey and Huff should all have rotation spots with the 5th belonging to Westbrook for the time being. Whatever you do, do not make a big splash in a weak free agent market. Barring a small miracle, you are not contending in '10 and should save money and avoid another Dellucci/Hafner albatross contract that will cripple the team for years.

It'll likely be a long year for Tribe fans, but without changing the salary structure of baseball it was unavoidable. However, in the future, they must avoid giving big contracts to guys who are significant health risks and not established stars. Save the money for guys like Lee, Sizemore, and Martinez and let the Hafners, and Peraltas of the world leave as free agents.