What would have happened had 1994 been played out?

August 12, 1994. The MLBPA stands their ground and goes on strike for 8 and a half months wiping out the conclusion to the season, the playoffs and the World Series. It solved nothing, it alienated fans, and it wiped out was was becoming one of the greatest seasons ever. Baseball still has not fully recovered especially in the World Series TV ratings. The strike killed career years for Greg Maddux, Tony Gwynn, Jeff Bagwell, Matt Williams, Frank Thomas, Albert Belle, Ken Griffey Jr., Paul O'Neil, Kenny Lofton, and Steve Ontiveros among others. Some like Belle and Maddux rebounded nicely to post even better seasons in 1995. Others, like Ontiveros and Williams never reached that level again. To top it all off, the Montreal Expos, a team that had only made the playoffs once and it was due to the 1981 strike, had the best record in baseball. The Yankees had returned to form after a decade in the doldrums and the Indians had finally come out of their 40 year funk and had an exciting, talented, young team.

So how would the season have played out? Would Gwynn hit .400? Would Maddux throw 300 innings? Would Williams or Griffey hit 60 homers? Would Kenny Lofton make a run at 100 steals? Would Frank Thomas, Albert Belle or Jeff Bagwell win the triple crown? And would the Expos win it all? All I can do is speculate and I will do so... right now.

Gwynn
Tony was hitting .394 when the season ended, but he had hit .423 since the break and .475 in a small sample in August. Assuming Gwynn would have continued to receive days off against tough lefthanders and continued to tear it up in August, he likely would have entered the last week of the season within pissing distance of .400. Batting average is quite volatile however, and a couple of lucky bounces would have been the difference between .400 and .390. My guess is no.

Maddux
Maddux was in a league of his own and likely had the perfect storm to throw 300 innings in a 5 man rotation. He made 25 starts in 1994 and threw 202 inning, an average of 8.1 innings per start. He likely would have made 11 more starts which at the same pace would put him at 291 innings. However, Maddux was in the zone late in '94 and in his last 7 starts he had averaged 8.7 innings with a 1.03 ERA. Keeping that up for 11 more starts would put him at 296 innings. But here's the real kicker: the Braves were fighting for their playoff lives and Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery were struggling with ERAs around 4.00. Maddux was the Braves savior and with his efficient pitching style and great mechanics likely would have made a few starts on short rest down the stretch something he had been called on to do in the past with much success. Throw in the possibility of a one game playoff and its not a stretch to think Maddux would have made 37 starts, a number that almost certainly would have put him over 300 innings. Despite all of this, its possible that he would have thrown fewer pitches in 300 innings than Carlos Zambrano does in a typical 220 inning season. I have Maddux finishing at 24-6 with about 240 strikeouts, only about 40 walks, and an ERA well under 2.00.

Williams/Griffey
At the date of the strike, Williams had 43 homers, Griffey had 40. Bagwell had 39, Thomas 38, Bonds 37, and Belle 36. A streak by any of them would have them in the 50s by mid September, but lets focus on the league leaders. Williams was on pace for 62 while Griffey was headed for 58. Williams was red hot since the break with 10 homers in 26 games. He had cooled off a bit in August with "only" 3 in 9 games. Williams was also a free swinger and prone to long slumps. Griffey on the other hand had cooled off after a great first 3 months including 15 homers in May. Griffey was a much more consistent hitter than Williams though and probably would have hit another 15 or so homers to finish around 55. Of the others, I think Belle was most likely to make a run. He was a notorious second half slugger and picked up right where he left off the following year. Still, its doubtful anyone would have reached 60, let alone 62.

Lofton
Lofton was the preeminent base stealer of the 90s and the best since Henderson and 1994 had been his best year. He was getting on base at an alarming rate and stealing bases with remarkable efficiency going 17 for 18 in July. He stood at 60, on pace for 87 which would have been the most since Henderson's 93 in 1988. It's very unlikely that Lofton would have gotten enough green lights the rest of the way, not with the likes of Baerga, Belle, Thome, Ramirez, and others hitting behind him. Still approaching 90 with an 80%+ success rate is excellent.

Triple Crown
The Triple Crown surprisingly has not happened since Yaz in 1967, and there are several reasons for that: 1. in this day and age, the big home run hitters strikeout so much that there is no chance of them hitting for a high average. The best homerun hitter in baseball today is Ryan Howard and he will win two legs of the triple crown almost every year, but will never come close to winning a batting title because he will strikeout almost 200 times a year. 2. RBIs are largely dependent on luck. The best hitters often have far fewer opportunities to drive in runs than the league RBI leader has. To me the triple crown should be AVG/OBP/SLG because that basically means you're the best hitter in the league. The pitching triple crown categories of W/ERA/SO are much better indicators of good performance. Anyway...

Bagwell stood at 2nd in the NL in HR and AVG and first by a lot in RBI. Finishing strong, he had a great chance to catch and pass the streaky Matt Williams for the HR title. Problem is that there is no way he would have caught Gwynn for the batting title unless Gwynn's season had ended right away and he fell short of 502 PAs. Even if Gwynn had been short, his lead was so large (.394 vs. .367) that the 0fer rule (adding ABs to get to 502 and dividing them by hits) might still have won him the award.

Belle and Thomas both had a decent shot, but it would have taken a great final month and a half to do it. They stood at 2 and 3 on the batting race 2 and 6 points respectively behind leader Paul O'Neill. They were tied for 3 in RBIs 11 behind leader Kirby Puckett, and they were 2 and 3 in the HR race with Thomas 2 back of Griffey, and Bell 4 back. Had Belle ended the season like he did in 1995, he would certainly have won the crown, but its quite unlikely he would have. It's also not likely either would have been able to keep up with the consistant Griffey in the HR race. I'm calling this one a no, but it would have been great to see.

Expos
The Expos certainly would have made the playoffs (and might still be in Montreal), but then they face the October crapshoot. The good news for them is they had all the ingredients of a good October team. They had 4 good starting pitchers led by Pedro Martinez and Jeff Fassero. They had a solid lineup 1-8 led by studs Larry Walker and Moises Alou. They had a deep bench with 4 legititmet pinch hit threats that would have filled in well had any of their regulars gone down. And perhaps most importantly, they had a great bullpen with live powerful arms led by John Wettland and Mel Rojas. It likely would have come down to them and Greg Maddux's Braves for the NL pennant, and while it could have been a very hard fought series, the Braves playoff history bodes well for the Expos. The AL team would likely have been New York, Chicago, or Cleveland all of whom would pose substantial threats for the Expos. These were not quite the late 90s Yankees and likely would have bowed out to the powerful lineup of the Indians or the great rotation of the White Sox. No matter who they faced, the Expos would have to be the favorite as they had no holes. Maybe they would have been bludgeoned by the Indians lineup or shut down by the Sox starters, but betting against a team with the Expos level of talent would not be smart. I think they would have won it all.