The Boston Red Sox: The Clear World Series Favorites
Well, it looks like my preseason pick of the Cleveland Indians did not work out for the series although I still maintain that without a barrage of injuries it would have. Anyways it's time to reassess heading into the last week of the season.
In the NL you have the Cubs... And well, the Cubs. If the Marlins manage to get in, they will be dangerous, but they're five games back with less than 10 to play so it looks bad for them. Any of the other teams, while they may make an improbable run to the series, will be severely over matched by any of the AL teams excluding whoever wins Comedy Central.
That leaves the Sox, Rays, and Angels as contenders. Everyone loves the Angels, but I tend to disagree. TLAAOA have a good record in a terrible division, a guy who just set a record for the most of the stupidest statistical category there is in one season, and a manager everyone loves. What they don't have is a dominating team. The have scored only 704 runs, 10th in the AL in: awful, and they have allowed 639, 4th in the AL: decent but not great. Their run differential is 7th in the AL and worse than 4 of the teams in the AL East. The lineup consists of 2.5 good hitters, a few mediocre and the rest bad. The bench is bad. The bullpen is excellent, but will pitch at most 3-4 innings per game. They have one legit ace, 2 more solid starters, and 2 about average starters. They are a team built to succeed over a long season because they have good pitching for every day. They are not built to win in October which takes great hitting and even greater pitching. To top it off, this is nowhere near the best Angels team in the past 5 years, and none of them have done much in October, so why should this bunch?
The Rays are very young, but very talented. They possess a pitching staff about as good as TLAAOA, but a much better lineup. While they lack the up front star power of Guerrero and Teixeira, they have 8 guys who can all beat you starting with soon to be superstar Evan Longoria. Trust me, this is David Wright of the AL. The only legit out in the lineup is Bartlett and he's at least as good as Aybar, Matthews, and Mathis. The Rays will likely fall victim to the "No stars" or the "No experience" paradox. Both have been overcome with young talent by the '03 Marlins and the '02 Angels, but usually you need one or the other.
Which brings me to the team of the '00s, the Boston Red Sox. They look ready to go for their 3rd title in 5 years as they have all the pieces to the puzzle. A solid lineup with plenty of playoff experience, a solid bench, the best closer in baseball other than Rivera and maybe Nathan, and a 3 man rotation of Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka. The keys are David Ortiz and even more importantly Josh Beckett.
As Curt Schilling, the best big game pitcher of his generation put it, "Beckett is the best big game pitcher in the game today." He certainly has a great track record: 2 postseasons, 2 world series rings, 2 postseason MVP awards. Beckett's career postseason numbers are some of the best ever: 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 10.2 K/9. Even in his two losses, he has yet to have a bad postseason outing. By comparison, his numbers are better than John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Jack Morris, Sandy Koufax, and are even close to playoff superstar Mariano Rivera.
Ortiz is also excellent his career postseason line is .317/.418/.587, and if you throw out the time before he got to Boston, it's an even more impressive .325/.443/.613, among the best of all time for those with over 150 PAs.
Anything can happen in a short series, but Boston has got to be the odds on favorite to repeat as champs.
In the NL you have the Cubs... And well, the Cubs. If the Marlins manage to get in, they will be dangerous, but they're five games back with less than 10 to play so it looks bad for them. Any of the other teams, while they may make an improbable run to the series, will be severely over matched by any of the AL teams excluding whoever wins Comedy Central.
That leaves the Sox, Rays, and Angels as contenders. Everyone loves the Angels, but I tend to disagree. TLAAOA have a good record in a terrible division, a guy who just set a record for the most of the stupidest statistical category there is in one season, and a manager everyone loves. What they don't have is a dominating team. The have scored only 704 runs, 10th in the AL in: awful, and they have allowed 639, 4th in the AL: decent but not great. Their run differential is 7th in the AL and worse than 4 of the teams in the AL East. The lineup consists of 2.5 good hitters, a few mediocre and the rest bad. The bench is bad. The bullpen is excellent, but will pitch at most 3-4 innings per game. They have one legit ace, 2 more solid starters, and 2 about average starters. They are a team built to succeed over a long season because they have good pitching for every day. They are not built to win in October which takes great hitting and even greater pitching. To top it off, this is nowhere near the best Angels team in the past 5 years, and none of them have done much in October, so why should this bunch?
The Rays are very young, but very talented. They possess a pitching staff about as good as TLAAOA, but a much better lineup. While they lack the up front star power of Guerrero and Teixeira, they have 8 guys who can all beat you starting with soon to be superstar Evan Longoria. Trust me, this is David Wright of the AL. The only legit out in the lineup is Bartlett and he's at least as good as Aybar, Matthews, and Mathis. The Rays will likely fall victim to the "No stars" or the "No experience" paradox. Both have been overcome with young talent by the '03 Marlins and the '02 Angels, but usually you need one or the other.
Which brings me to the team of the '00s, the Boston Red Sox. They look ready to go for their 3rd title in 5 years as they have all the pieces to the puzzle. A solid lineup with plenty of playoff experience, a solid bench, the best closer in baseball other than Rivera and maybe Nathan, and a 3 man rotation of Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka. The keys are David Ortiz and even more importantly Josh Beckett.
As Curt Schilling, the best big game pitcher of his generation put it, "Beckett is the best big game pitcher in the game today." He certainly has a great track record: 2 postseasons, 2 world series rings, 2 postseason MVP awards. Beckett's career postseason numbers are some of the best ever: 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 10.2 K/9. Even in his two losses, he has yet to have a bad postseason outing. By comparison, his numbers are better than John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Jack Morris, Sandy Koufax, and are even close to playoff superstar Mariano Rivera.
Ortiz is also excellent his career postseason line is .317/.418/.587, and if you throw out the time before he got to Boston, it's an even more impressive .325/.443/.613, among the best of all time for those with over 150 PAs.
Anything can happen in a short series, but Boston has got to be the odds on favorite to repeat as champs.
Labels: Comedy Central, David Ortiz, Josh Beckett, Red Sox, Tampa Bay, TLAAOA, World Series
posted by Andrew Manning at
6:16 PM
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