The First Round: What the hell??? Part I

Okay, I managed to pick 3 of the 4 series correctly, but all of them had some unexpected turns, and except for the Rays vs. White Sox series, non went as I expected.

The highlight of the Rays vs. Sox series was the Balfour vs. Cabrera showdown which is the kind of thing you will remember for years. Balfour has now climbed into my favorite obscure players list. The rest of the series was pretty much chalk. The Sox managed to win one more game than I thought they would based solely on the strength of John Danks' start. That kid is really something and could turn into a Cy Young caliber pitcher in the coming years. Other than that, the Rays pitchers kept the Sox at bay and the young stars on the Rays, Upton and Longoria especially, shined brightly as they will for the next decade or so.

The most disappointing series would have to be the Cubs vs. Dodgers. This is the series I thought would be the best basically consisting of Manny vs. the Cubs pitching. Instead, it consisted of the Cubs completely laying an egg. Dempster and Harden picked a bad time to have bad starts, with Dempster completely losing his command, and Harden losing the dominance he had displayed most of this year. Looking back, Harden and Depster probably were not guys you wanted to trust to start in postseason games. Dempster does not have dominating stuff, and Harden has inconsistent command and no durability. But while these pitchers were bad, the Cubs lineup lost the series. They scored 6 runs. Unless you have Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale, you will not win a playoff series in which you score 6 runs. Part of that is the fact that the Dodgers pitchers were excellent, part of that was that certain Cubs (Soriano, Ramirez, Soto) flat out choked, but mostly it was due to poor lineup construction. I said over a month ago that the fact that the Cubs did not have a superstar hitter could hurt them, and it did. Lee, the best hitter on the team, stepped up and hit over .500 in the series, but it was not enough. They made a mistake in playing the ice cold Fukodome, they made a bigger mistake in contructing a lineup whose two best left handed hitters are a 40 year old centerfielder, and their #1 starting pitcher. But the biggest mistake was giving superstar money to the extremely overrated Alfonso Soriano, and insisting on batting him leadoff despite the fact that he is completely the anti leadoff hitter.

A good leadoff hitter: has a high on base percentage, takes a good amount of walks, does not strikout much, gets a fair amount lot of extra base hits, but not a lot of homers, is a good baserunner who does not run into a lot of extra outs for the extra bases he takes. The two best leadoffmen ever, Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines, did all these things and did them well. Soriano is fast. Thats it. He strikes out way too much, does not get on base enough, and hits way too many homers to bat at the top. If the Cubs learned anything from this series, its that Soriano needs to move down, Theriot and Derosa need to move up, and they have to get more lefthaded bats.

The Brewers vs. Phillies series turned out about as expected with the somewhat large exception of CC Sabathia. Sabathia had a bad inning and two awful at bats with the Phillies star hitter: Brett Myers!!! Sabathia controlled Utley and Howard as expected and looked fairly sharp, he just could not handle the lesser hitters in the lineup. Game 5 could have been a classic if only the Brewers could have pulled it out. They also have some fixing to do. Their pitching should be fine as long as they can find one starter. If they can bring Sabathia back, that will solve a lot of the problems. The lineup, however will not be as easy to fix. Hart has to go, Weeks, and Hall could as well. They need to get a few more patient hitters because Hardy and Braun can't do it all by themselves.

Sox-Angels needs its own entry. coming soon.

Breaking down the postseason matchups: NL

Brewers (90-72) vs. Phillies (90-72)

This is a match up that I believe hinges on what the Brewer pitchers other than CC can do. All kidding aside, CC will go in games 2 and 5 (the 2nd on 3 days rest, the 5th on 4). That means the Brewers must win at least one of the other 3 games. The starters will be some combo of Sheets, Bush, Suppan (who has been solid in the playoffs), Parra, and Gallardo. I'd bet on Suppan and Bush for sure and we'll see on Sheets/Gallardo for game 4.

Starting pitching:

Brewers: Sabathia and some combo of those listed above.
Phillies: Hamels, Moyer, Meyers, Blanton.
Advantage: Brewers especially if they can get anything out of Sheets. Sabathia is better than Hamels, and Meyers and Blanton are nothing to write home about. Gallardo could also be this year's Jon Lester, Anthony Reyes, or Jaret Wright.

Lineup:

The Brewers offense lives and dies with the homer. They can put a 10 spot up one night and get shutout the next. Except for Fielder, Durham, and Branyan, they do not take walks, and except for those three, they are right hand dominant. This is all good news though as the Phillies don't had a wild starter, have two lefties, and play in a park that favors the long ball.

The Phillies have six solid players led by Chase Utley and the streaky Ryan Howard. Most of the Phillies can take a walk, but they will be facing a Brewer staff that does not allow many. The Phillies are prone to the strikeout, and Howard can be neutralized by left handed pitcher.

Advantage: I'm going to call this a PUSH, but only because of the match ups. The Phillies will send lefties in 3 of the 5 games and their two righties aren't great.

Bullpen

Milwaukee: The only real weakness for the Brew Crew. If this were 2004 when Gagne, and Mota could still get their steroids, and when Riske was still good, it might be a different story, but it's not. They might want to consider Gallardo or Sheets to close because it's going to be scary with Torres out there if he has to face the meat of that Phillie lineup. Gagne and Mota have both been solid down the stretch, so maybe they'll be ok. Then again, CC will probably win or lose the game by himself, so they might not need the bullpen in every game.

Phillies: The bridge to Lidge has been solid led by Madsen and Durbin, but they have both shouldered heavy loads with 1 200 inning starter. Lidge has been lights out all year, but he was also lights out back in 2005 when Pujols hit one that hasn't landed yet... Just saying.

Advantage: Phillies.

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Brewers have much better bench than the Phils, but they also have nutoriously bad defenders other than Hardy and Kendall. The Phillies are solid defensively with Utley and especially Feliz, but average to poor just about everywhere else. The management is tough to call because Sveum has about the same managing experience as I do, and Manual has never impressed me. I gotta go with the Crew on intagibles with Sabathia the leading reason but also Fielder who has been money down the stretch and in clutch situations.

Advantage: Brewers

Prediction: Brewers in 5. CC will win his second game of the series in a dual with Hamels. The Brewers will find a way to win agaisnt either Meyers or Blanton for their other win.


Dodgers (84-68) vs. Cubs (97-64)

Starting pitching:

The Dodgers will send Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, and either Maddux or Kershaw, probably Maddux.

The Cubs will counter with Dempster, Harden, Zambrano, and Lilly.

The Cubs certainly have the edge in talent and probably success in 2008, but they also have more question marks with health. Lowe has been a big game pitcher in the past, Maddux has been their before and Billingsley is their best pitcher.

Advantage: Dodgers. There are just too many question marks for the Cubs. Scouts say that Harden wasn't even hitting 90 MPH in his last throwing session, Zambrano has been about as consistent as the Diamondbacks were this year, and Dempster just threw more innings than he has in six years.

Lineup:

The best thing going for the Dodgers is that Andruw Jones will get 0 ABs in the series. They also just got Furcal back who may prove to be their saving grace. Oh, and they have some guy with dreads who can flat out rake.. Now if I could just remember his name.

The Cubs are solid 1-8, but don't have that one big slugger like the Dodgers have. They are also right hand dominant with all of their stars coming from that side (another reason to send Maddux).

Advantage: Cubs, but not by as much as it would have been just a little while ago.

Bullpen:

The Dodgers bullpen has been recently stabilized by the return of closer Takashi Saito. They have also gotten solid years out of Broxton, Beimel, Wade, Park, and Kuo.

The Cubs bullpen has been hailed as the greatest all year led by Wood, Marmol, and the recently added Samardjiza. The problem is that they have ridden Marmol for almost 90 innings, Wood is not lights out, and other than those 3, they're kind of shaky.

Advantage: Dodgers. Depth and power in that pen. The game is pretty much over after 7 innings.

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles:
A slight edge to the Cubs on the bench with Fontenot/Johnson, but the Dodgerss are much improved after getting everybody and their mother back from injury in the last few weeks. Neither team is good defensively but the Cubs do not have the cut off man playing leftfield, so that's a plus. Torre certainly has had more playoff success than Lou including beating Lou's 116 win monster back in 2001, but I like Lou's fire so that's close. The Dodgers definately have the intangibles working for them with Red Sox playoff heros Lowe and that other guy and his 100 million reasons to succeed, as well as the experience of Maddux and the rapping of Juan Pierre (maybe he can go to wrigley field and get that wiggley feel again!!). As for the Cubs. Well, they have that 100 year thing going for them, but come on, they're the Cubs!

Advantage: Push

Prediction: Dodgers in 5. I'm really surprised here as I thought the Cubs would clean up. But the Dodgers are peaking at the right time and have far fewer questions in the rotation. If Harden and Zambrano can pitch like they did in the middle of the summer, then its a different story, but I just don't see that happening. The Dodgers starters really only need to give them 6 good innings which I think they are more than capable of doing. I can't say the same about the Cubs. Zambrano has been kicked around since his no hitter (which in retrospect may have been a bad thing since he had to throw so many pitches) and Harden can't control his pitches enough to last past the 5th much of the time. The Cubs match up much better with the Phillies, Brewers, or Mets, but I think they drew the one team that can beat them. And boy will is be a sad day when they do. I wonder who they'll blame it on this time.

Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Wrigley for the mighty Cubs have bowed out.

Cubs in trouble

A month ago after listening to my uncle talk about how great the Cubs were for 30 minutes or so, I said that I saw the Red Sox, Angels, and Rays as better teams and that it was unlikely that the Cubs pitching could hold up for a playoff run. In the end I bet my uncle a bottle of wine that the Cubs would not win the World Series, and I don't even drink wine that often.

For a few weeks it looked bad for me as the Sox suffered injury after injury and the Rays and Angels showed flaws that they hadn't all season. But it all caught up with itself this week. The Sox look as unstopable as I touted them to be, and the Cubs are in a whole heap of trouble.

For purposes of discussion lets say that the injuries to Zambrano turn out to be nothing and the Cubs enter October with the same team they have trotted out since they acquired Harden. They are still in trouble and here's why:

1. They have a rotation filled with 6 inning starters. Cubs starters have a grand total of 1 complete game this year, and with the exception of Dempster and Zambrano no Cub starter averages more than 6 innings a start. They throw lots of pitches and walk lots of batters, such will necesitate a 4 man playoff rotation, and if even one of their starters can't pitch, that means Marquis will get the ball. Short outings put a lot of stress on the pen, and will force Marmol, Howry, Wood, and Samardzija to pitch in nearly every post season game.

2. The bullpen has been overworked since day one. Marmol is at almost 80 innings with 3 weeks to play, Howry's at 65, Wood is at 58, but he missed a considerable amout of time, and Samardzija has never pitched this late into summer. The good news here is that the Cubs have a lot of depth with Wuertz, Cotts, Lieber, Marshall, and Gaudin, but these are considerable drop offs from the big 4. The stress may already be getting to Howry as he has sucked in the second half.

3. The lineup is extremely right hand dominant. This is a problem that is much easier to exploit in the postseason than it has been in the regular season. It is one of the reasons the St. Louis Cardinals were able to win the title in 2006 as they dominated a Detroit Tigers lineup that was less full of right handers than the Cubs lineup is. With the exception of Jim Edmonds and Mike Fontenot, they have no left handed or switch hitting hitters with power. Against a team with great right handed pitchers like the Red Sox, Angels, or DBacks, they will be in a whole heap of trouble.

The Cubs have been by far the best team in the NL this season, but the best team is rarely the team that wins in October. It is the team that is playing the best, and lately, that has not been the Cubbies

The Playoffs

When looking at the playoff series, I see one no brainer, two where I have a good feeling and one that is pretty much a toss up. Here we go:

Red Sox (96-66) vs. Angels (94-68)
This one would have been pretty much dead even, if both teams were at full strength and had it been played a month ago, I would actually have taken the Halos. That is not the case. The Red Sox can trot out Beckett to negate or even top Lackey and come back with Dice-K and Schilling in games 2 and 3. The long series allows them to be a bit more liberal with Papelbon and put Wakefield in the bullpen. They also have Man-Ram and Youkilis back in the line up.
The Angels on the other hand, limp into the playoffs without Gary HGH Matthews or Bart Colon and with an injury to Vlad that will restrict him to DH duties.

Starting Pitching:
Red Sox: Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling
Angels: Lackey, Escobar, Weaver
Advantage: Push

Lineups:
The Red Sox can trot out 7 solid, patient hitters, 2 of which are among the best in the game, and have wild cards in Lugo and Crisp that could potentially be x-factors.
The Angels have a lineup that relies too heavily on Guerrero, batting average and speed. They are not a lineup that will force Boston's starters to throw a lot of pitches, nor are they built for the big inning. Their only hope is to nickel and dime the Sox to death, living and dying with the stolen base and aggressive base running.
Advantage: Boston and its not even close.

Bullpens:
The Red Sox have struggled lately, but they have a lot of potential. They have a shutdown closer in Papelbon who they can afford to go to early, a solid set up man in Okajima and a wild card in Gagne. Plus they can go to the flutter ball if need be, a pitch that the free swinging Angels should struggle with mightily late in a game.
The Angels have not had as strong a relief corps this year as they have in the past. They have K-Rod, Shields, Speier and Oliver plus converted starters Santana and Saunders. Good, but not as good as it should be.
Advantage: Push in a category the Angels will need a lot to win.

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Red Sox have Ortiz and quite frankly thats all they need, but they also have Francona who made all the right moves in 2004.
Socsia has also won a World Series, but I have never liked his managing style. He will run into too many outs to win this series.
Advantage: Red Sox

Prediction: Sox in 4. I think the Angels will win either the Escobar game or the Weaver game, but be unable to beat Beckett. They will be lucky to score 10 runs in the series.

Indians (96-66) vs. Yankees-MFYs (94-68)
This is a pretty evenly matched series. The Indians had a better regular season record and have played great down the stretch. However, they have lost all 6 games vs. the MFYs this year.

Starting Pitching:
The Indians boast 2 CY Young candidates that have had fantastic second halves. Their 3rd starter, Westbrook, has also been solid down the stretch.
The MFYs have experience and one solid youngster in Wang, but little else. They will rely on finesse rather than pure stuff. There is a lot of uncertainty here because who knows what they will get from Clemens and Mussina?
Advantage: Indians

Lineup:
The Indians are very solid 1-9, having solidified 2nd and the corner outfield spots down the stretch. They have a good mix of left and right handed hitters and don't rely on one player to carry the load though they have players capable of doing just that. Hafner, Sizemore and Martinez all have that ability and have been great down the stretch. They have a good mix of speed and power and work the count well.
The Yankees boast the majors best lineup. MVP candidates Posada and Rodriguez lead the way, but are complimented well by Abreu, Cabrera, Damon, Jeter and friends. There's no real hole here, but it is the same lineup that was dominated by the Tigers a year ago, so anything can happen.
Advantage: Yankees, but its close

Bullpen:
The Indians bullpen is great with the exception of the shaky guy closing the games. They should be able to bridge the 7th and 8th innings with little difficulty and have a slew of lefties to send against Giambi, Damon and Abreu. The closer is the question especially since he blew up sky high earlier this year.
The Yankees are the exact opposite. The front of their pen is a question mark, but the end is pretty much lights out. With the greatest closer in history and Joba at the back, the Indians better hope to get their runs early.
Advantage: push

Bench/Defense/Management/Intagibles
No real big difference here. The Yankees have experience, but that hasn't mattered recently. The Tribe has a slight advantage on defense, and the benches are basically even.
Advantage: Yankees, based solely on experience

Prediction: Tribe in 5. I just don't think that the Yankees can beat Sabathia or Carmona in Cleveland. Even if they do, they had better hope that Mussina and Clemens can hold that lineup at bay in the Bronx.

Short blips on the NL (I'll do a more detailed one later):
Rockies vs. Phillies

Prediction: Rockies in 4: That lineup is every bit as good as the Phillies, no matter what they say. They will face mediocre Phillie pitching with the exception of Cole Hamells who will go up against the very underrated Jeff Francis. They'll split in Philly and win both at Coors.

Cubs vs. DBacks
Prediction: On paper, the Cubs should win this no problem. Arizona's lineup is pathetic and with the Cubs going with a 3 man rotation, they have no major holes. Still I don't see it happening and I think the DBacks will win in 5 when Webb beats that right hand dominant lineup for the second time.