Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and the land of redemption
I have to admit, I never really liked Cliff Lee the pitcher before this year. Even when he pitched well in 2005, it always seemed like trouble was right around the corner, and that Lee was escaping big innings rather than pitching out of jams. In 2006, it was worse, and in 2007, it was so bad that a guy who had finished 4th in the Cy Young voting in 2005 was demoted to AAA for most of the year.
But something happened this offseason: instead of waiting to get beat and hoping to escape Lee began to attack hitters and force them to hit his pitch. He took what was pretty good stuff and decided to trust it, pounding the strike zone, getting ahead of hitters and forcing them to hit his almost unhittable breaking pitches. In 2004, Lee walked 81 batters in 179 innings, in 2005 it was 52 in 202 innings, last year it was 36 in 97.1 innings. This year however he has walked 28 in 210 innings. Lee will probably make 3 more starts this season so he will probably pitch beween 230 and 240 innings, and there is a very good chance to walk fewer batters this year than last year. Lee leads the majors in walks per 9 with an outstanding 1.2.
His strikeout numbers have not suffered as they are among the best of his career, he has not become more hittable as he is having his best year in H/9, and he has not given up the long ball as he is first in the majors in HR/9. Perhaps the best statistic at measuring a pitchers command is K/BB yet another statistic in which Lee leads the majors. In short he has been the man.
Lee came out of the gate absolutely on fire posting a 0.61 ERA in April, at the time I thought there was no chance of a whole season of this, and I was right, however he has not slowed down much. I watched a few of Lee's April starts and he looked like he was for real. The hitters were always behind in the count and chasing his breaking ball that none of them could hit. Lee also seemed to really bear down when he was in a jam and often escape unscathed. All Lee's numbers looked good, and the numbers that indicate future success: K/BB, BB/9, HR/9, WHIP, looked even better. I began to think that maybe his great start wasn't a fluke. As it turned out, I was right on the money.
As the season went on and Lee kept dominating, the team seemed different during his starts than they did for the other pitchers. When Lee is on the mound, they know they're going to win. They know that if they get him 4 or 5 runs, the game is over. The man has been an almost automatic 7+ innings with 3 or less runs. Even in his bad starts of which he's really only had 3, he gives his team at least 5 innings.
Over in the other league another one of my favorite pitchers has also enjoyed a great resurgence. Since coming into the league, Roy Oswalt has been almost automatic for 15 wins, 220 innings, and an ERA around 3.00 but in the first half of 2008, it looked like it might be coming to an end for the little guy from Mississippi. He got absolutely shelled in April and May, and despite having a pretty solid June, he entered the all star break with an ERA of 4.56 and was getting kicked around in July before an injury forced him to the DL.
Ever since he retured, he has been back to his old self, maybe better. Since the break, he's 8-1 with a 1.94 ERA, 2 shutouts, and 50 hits in 74 innings. August was one of the best months of his career and he has carried it into September a month where he has allowed 13 runners in 26 innings and no runs. He is a darkhorse candidate for the Cy Young now, a distinction that seemed impossible 3 months ago. The Cy Young talk is probably a bit of a stretch, but thanks to Ike, he will likely get at least 4 more starts, if he is great in all of them, he could be 19-9 with an ERA in the low 3s which will be much like his previous 5 top 5 Cy Young finishes.
I guess I shouldn't be that surprised that this nutorious second half stud has turned it up a notch, especially with his team back in the race. For his career, he is 65-19 with a 2.87 ERA and a .667 OPS against. And this is his best month for his career, he is 26-7 with a 2.48 ERA.
The really interesting thing is this: Houston is currently 3 back of Milwaukee for the wild card. They will probably get the whole weekend off due to Ike, and Roy-O will be back pitching Tuesday. The rest of the way they play Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, and Atlanta, teams that are a combined 56 games under .500. At least part of the series with the Cubs will likely be made up after the conclusion of the regular season at which point the Cubs will probably have clinched home field and have nothing to play for. So Houston may be playing a 4A or even a 3A team with the playoffs on the line.
Or how about this: a tie with the Brewers for the wild card, and a 1 game playoff with CC Sabathia against Roy Oswalt. I'll be skipping work for that.
Finally, with all this talk of Delgado for MVP because he "led the Mets resurgence" or some such garbage, why not a Roy-O for MVP case since he has been at the forefront of the Astros run? That's stupid, I know, but if that's your criteria for what makes a player valuable, you have to consider it.
But something happened this offseason: instead of waiting to get beat and hoping to escape Lee began to attack hitters and force them to hit his pitch. He took what was pretty good stuff and decided to trust it, pounding the strike zone, getting ahead of hitters and forcing them to hit his almost unhittable breaking pitches. In 2004, Lee walked 81 batters in 179 innings, in 2005 it was 52 in 202 innings, last year it was 36 in 97.1 innings. This year however he has walked 28 in 210 innings. Lee will probably make 3 more starts this season so he will probably pitch beween 230 and 240 innings, and there is a very good chance to walk fewer batters this year than last year. Lee leads the majors in walks per 9 with an outstanding 1.2.
His strikeout numbers have not suffered as they are among the best of his career, he has not become more hittable as he is having his best year in H/9, and he has not given up the long ball as he is first in the majors in HR/9. Perhaps the best statistic at measuring a pitchers command is K/BB yet another statistic in which Lee leads the majors. In short he has been the man.
Lee came out of the gate absolutely on fire posting a 0.61 ERA in April, at the time I thought there was no chance of a whole season of this, and I was right, however he has not slowed down much. I watched a few of Lee's April starts and he looked like he was for real. The hitters were always behind in the count and chasing his breaking ball that none of them could hit. Lee also seemed to really bear down when he was in a jam and often escape unscathed. All Lee's numbers looked good, and the numbers that indicate future success: K/BB, BB/9, HR/9, WHIP, looked even better. I began to think that maybe his great start wasn't a fluke. As it turned out, I was right on the money.
As the season went on and Lee kept dominating, the team seemed different during his starts than they did for the other pitchers. When Lee is on the mound, they know they're going to win. They know that if they get him 4 or 5 runs, the game is over. The man has been an almost automatic 7+ innings with 3 or less runs. Even in his bad starts of which he's really only had 3, he gives his team at least 5 innings.
Over in the other league another one of my favorite pitchers has also enjoyed a great resurgence. Since coming into the league, Roy Oswalt has been almost automatic for 15 wins, 220 innings, and an ERA around 3.00 but in the first half of 2008, it looked like it might be coming to an end for the little guy from Mississippi. He got absolutely shelled in April and May, and despite having a pretty solid June, he entered the all star break with an ERA of 4.56 and was getting kicked around in July before an injury forced him to the DL.
Ever since he retured, he has been back to his old self, maybe better. Since the break, he's 8-1 with a 1.94 ERA, 2 shutouts, and 50 hits in 74 innings. August was one of the best months of his career and he has carried it into September a month where he has allowed 13 runners in 26 innings and no runs. He is a darkhorse candidate for the Cy Young now, a distinction that seemed impossible 3 months ago. The Cy Young talk is probably a bit of a stretch, but thanks to Ike, he will likely get at least 4 more starts, if he is great in all of them, he could be 19-9 with an ERA in the low 3s which will be much like his previous 5 top 5 Cy Young finishes.
I guess I shouldn't be that surprised that this nutorious second half stud has turned it up a notch, especially with his team back in the race. For his career, he is 65-19 with a 2.87 ERA and a .667 OPS against. And this is his best month for his career, he is 26-7 with a 2.48 ERA.
The really interesting thing is this: Houston is currently 3 back of Milwaukee for the wild card. They will probably get the whole weekend off due to Ike, and Roy-O will be back pitching Tuesday. The rest of the way they play Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, and Atlanta, teams that are a combined 56 games under .500. At least part of the series with the Cubs will likely be made up after the conclusion of the regular season at which point the Cubs will probably have clinched home field and have nothing to play for. So Houston may be playing a 4A or even a 3A team with the playoffs on the line.
Or how about this: a tie with the Brewers for the wild card, and a 1 game playoff with CC Sabathia against Roy Oswalt. I'll be skipping work for that.
Finally, with all this talk of Delgado for MVP because he "led the Mets resurgence" or some such garbage, why not a Roy-O for MVP case since he has been at the forefront of the Astros run? That's stupid, I know, but if that's your criteria for what makes a player valuable, you have to consider it.
Labels: Cliff Lee, comebacks, Roy Oswalt
posted by Andrew Manning at
11:29 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home