Saturday, September 06, 2008

Cubs in trouble

A month ago after listening to my uncle talk about how great the Cubs were for 30 minutes or so, I said that I saw the Red Sox, Angels, and Rays as better teams and that it was unlikely that the Cubs pitching could hold up for a playoff run. In the end I bet my uncle a bottle of wine that the Cubs would not win the World Series, and I don't even drink wine that often.

For a few weeks it looked bad for me as the Sox suffered injury after injury and the Rays and Angels showed flaws that they hadn't all season. But it all caught up with itself this week. The Sox look as unstopable as I touted them to be, and the Cubs are in a whole heap of trouble.

For purposes of discussion lets say that the injuries to Zambrano turn out to be nothing and the Cubs enter October with the same team they have trotted out since they acquired Harden. They are still in trouble and here's why:

1. They have a rotation filled with 6 inning starters. Cubs starters have a grand total of 1 complete game this year, and with the exception of Dempster and Zambrano no Cub starter averages more than 6 innings a start. They throw lots of pitches and walk lots of batters, such will necesitate a 4 man playoff rotation, and if even one of their starters can't pitch, that means Marquis will get the ball. Short outings put a lot of stress on the pen, and will force Marmol, Howry, Wood, and Samardzija to pitch in nearly every post season game.

2. The bullpen has been overworked since day one. Marmol is at almost 80 innings with 3 weeks to play, Howry's at 65, Wood is at 58, but he missed a considerable amout of time, and Samardzija has never pitched this late into summer. The good news here is that the Cubs have a lot of depth with Wuertz, Cotts, Lieber, Marshall, and Gaudin, but these are considerable drop offs from the big 4. The stress may already be getting to Howry as he has sucked in the second half.

3. The lineup is extremely right hand dominant. This is a problem that is much easier to exploit in the postseason than it has been in the regular season. It is one of the reasons the St. Louis Cardinals were able to win the title in 2006 as they dominated a Detroit Tigers lineup that was less full of right handers than the Cubs lineup is. With the exception of Jim Edmonds and Mike Fontenot, they have no left handed or switch hitting hitters with power. Against a team with great right handed pitchers like the Red Sox, Angels, or DBacks, they will be in a whole heap of trouble.

The Cubs have been by far the best team in the NL this season, but the best team is rarely the team that wins in October. It is the team that is playing the best, and lately, that has not been the Cubbies

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