ALCS Preview
The defending champion Red Sox take on the upstart Rays in a match up of probably the two best teams in baseball. Who will win? Well, lets see how they match up.
Starting pitching:
The Sox will go Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, and Wakefield while the Rays will go Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Sonnanstine.
The Red Sox are clearly better, but how much better will depend on which Beckett shows up. Will it be the Beckett from the division series because if so, the Rays will have a very good chance in games 2 and 6 with their wild card Scott Kazmir pitching. If it is the Beckett from 2003 or 2007, this series is over and it has yet to begin.
Advantage: Red Sox.
Lineup:
The Rays are solid with Iwamura, Crawford, Pena, Navaro, and budding superstars Longoria and Upton. Their holes are at short and possibly rightfield. They also run into trouble against pitchers of the lefthanded persuasion. The Sox counter with 4 very good hitters: Bay, Youk, Ortiz, and Pedroia. The Sox have decent to good hitters in Elsbury, Lowrie, and Drew with the Lowell replacement and Varitek being the holes. They are less suseptable to lefties.
Advantage: Push. The Sox are better on paper, but the Rays have been performing in the playoffs and have some huge talents.
Bullpen:
This is a tough one because the Rays bullpen is deeper, but Papelbon is unquestionably the best reliever in baseball. The Rays can bring Howell, Balfour, Price, and Miller, and that's better than Masterson/Delcarmen/Lopez/Iwojima/Whoever, but it's not enough better to cancel out Papelbon vs. Wheeler which isn't close.
Advantge: Red Sox
Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The benches are pretty equal with Lowell's injury possibly tilting the edge to the Rays. The defenses are both excellent, but again the Rays get a bit of an edge. Ditto on the managers. The Sox hold the edge in the intangibles with a variety of playoff warriors.
Advantge: Rays.
Prediction: Sox in 7. I've gone over it a bunch of times and I don't see how they can beat the Sox 4 out of 7. They will have to beat Dice-K twice, Wake once, and either Beckett or Lester once. I see almost no way they can beat Lester since their lineup is severly weakend by a lefty. Lester is also going agaist the erratic Garza. I don't see them beating Dice-K twice, nor do I see them beating Beckett twice. I'll give them the Wakefield game and one against both Dice-K and Beckett, but they fall to series MVP Lester in 7.
Starting pitching:
The Sox will go Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, and Wakefield while the Rays will go Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Sonnanstine.
The Red Sox are clearly better, but how much better will depend on which Beckett shows up. Will it be the Beckett from the division series because if so, the Rays will have a very good chance in games 2 and 6 with their wild card Scott Kazmir pitching. If it is the Beckett from 2003 or 2007, this series is over and it has yet to begin.
Advantage: Red Sox.
Lineup:
The Rays are solid with Iwamura, Crawford, Pena, Navaro, and budding superstars Longoria and Upton. Their holes are at short and possibly rightfield. They also run into trouble against pitchers of the lefthanded persuasion. The Sox counter with 4 very good hitters: Bay, Youk, Ortiz, and Pedroia. The Sox have decent to good hitters in Elsbury, Lowrie, and Drew with the Lowell replacement and Varitek being the holes. They are less suseptable to lefties.
Advantage: Push. The Sox are better on paper, but the Rays have been performing in the playoffs and have some huge talents.
Bullpen:
This is a tough one because the Rays bullpen is deeper, but Papelbon is unquestionably the best reliever in baseball. The Rays can bring Howell, Balfour, Price, and Miller, and that's better than Masterson/Delcarmen/Lopez/Iwojima/Whoever, but it's not enough better to cancel out Papelbon vs. Wheeler which isn't close.
Advantge: Red Sox
Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The benches are pretty equal with Lowell's injury possibly tilting the edge to the Rays. The defenses are both excellent, but again the Rays get a bit of an edge. Ditto on the managers. The Sox hold the edge in the intangibles with a variety of playoff warriors.
Advantge: Rays.
Prediction: Sox in 7. I've gone over it a bunch of times and I don't see how they can beat the Sox 4 out of 7. They will have to beat Dice-K twice, Wake once, and either Beckett or Lester once. I see almost no way they can beat Lester since their lineup is severly weakend by a lefty. Lester is also going agaist the erratic Garza. I don't see them beating Dice-K twice, nor do I see them beating Beckett twice. I'll give them the Wakefield game and one against both Dice-K and Beckett, but they fall to series MVP Lester in 7.
Labels: Dice-K, Iwojima, Jon Lester, Red Sox, Tampa Bay
posted by Andrew Manning at
7:35 PM
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