Thursday, July 24, 2008

KRod about to Cash in Big

If Francisco Rodriguez continues his current pace he will save almost 70 games and set himself up for the biggest payday a closer has ever had. He's looking at a minimum of 5 years $75M, and possibly up to 6 years and $100M. This will be a contract that will become the bane of whoever is dumb enough to give it to him.

First of all, as I have said earlier, the save is the single stupidest statistic in all of baseball. It is completely circumstantial, and often times doesn't require you to even be effective in the one inning you pitch. To get a save a game, a pitcher must: finish a game won by his team where he inherited the lead, and either entered the game with a lead of 3 runs or less and pitched at least 1 inning, entered the game with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck, or pitched for at least three innings. This means entering the game with the based loaded, up by one, and no one out counts as a save just as much as no one on, no one out and a 3 run lead, or even worse when you pitch the last 3 innings of a 30-3 blowout.

Second, Rodriguez is averaging less than 1 inning per outing and is on pace to pitch a stellar 72 innings on the year. CC Sabathia has almost thrown half of that total for the Brewers already, and he's been there for two weeks.

Finally, other than the outrageous amount of staves, Rodriguez is having a bad year! His K/9 are down from 13.18, 12.16, 12.08, and 12.03 the last 4 years to 9.33 this year. He's already almost set a career high in walks. His fielding independent pitching is 3.19 which is just about average for a closer.

Spendingh big money on a closer is bad, spending big money on a closer who is slipping is even worse. Giving record money to a guy who just set a record despite not having his best year is a recipe for one of the worst contracts ever.

Lets hope the Yankees bite.

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