The New York Yankees: Baseball's Version of the US Economy
As the Yankees finish off their first Octoberless season since 1994, people keep asking, "What went wrong." To me that's a question with a fairly obvious answer: The Yankees were a sinking ship long before this year.
In reality, the Yankee ship has been sinking since their last World Series victory way back in 2000 which leads me to draw several similarities to the US economy:
1. They were both power houses that had been strong throughout the 20th century and peaked as recently as the mid to late 1990s.
2. They both began to deteriorate in 2001.
3. Despite rises and falls, they both have not been the same since.
4. There have been numerous attempts for a quick fix rather than the long rebuilding process that is inevitable at this point.
5. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
6. The people running the show don't understand any of this.
The Yankees are a very old team and have been for quite some time. Going into this year, they had one star player still in his prime: Alex Rodriguez. Strangely this is the player most often blamed for the Yankees problems although he without question has kept them respectable in a year where almost nothing went right. The next closest thing to a star is Wang and while he is a good pitcher, he is not the kind of guy you want to build a staff around.
Most of the rest of the guys: Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Mussina, Giambi, Abreu, Damon, and Matsui are old, past their prime, and waaaaaaaaaaay overpaid. Some of the others: Cabrera, Cano, Kennedy, Hughes, and Joba were too young and not ready to step into everyday roles. It is unsure if any of them will ever be stars.
This leaves Yankee management in a tight spot entering their new stadium in 2009. They have a fanbase that demands winning who will have just gone through the longest winter in over a decade, a fan base that will demand changes every day starting last month. The team has a lot of money coming off the books with: Musssina, Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Pavano, and Ivan Rodriguez all set to be free agents at seasons end. Of those only Mussina, Pettitte, and maybe Abreu figure to be invited back, all be it at much lower rates. The Yankees will still have Jeter, Rodriguez, Damon, Matsui, Posada, Rivera, Cano, and Wang, among others, owed somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 mil, giving them about $50-$60 mill to spend on free agents, and a whole crapload of needs. Names thrown out as possibly heading to NY are: Sabathia, Texeira, Sheets, Ramirez, Ordonez, and AJ Burnett. Sabathia has said he doesn't want to play in New York, Ramirez and Ordonez are getting old and AJ Burnett seems like a disaster waiting to happen which leaves Sheets and Tex whom I think would be good fits. They will cost between $30-$40 mil annually which still leaves the team with 2/5 of a rotation and glaring holes in the outfield as well as the lineup. Even bringing back Mussina, Abreu, and Pettitte might not fix everything. It might make the Yanks relevant next year, but their problems run much deeper.
Boston and Tampa Bay are loaded for the long haul. Even with a complete makeover in the offseason, the Yankees cannot catch up to the surplus of talent owned by these two franchises. Jeter, Rivera, and Posada are old and past their primes, but all three will be allowed to stay with the team until they retire, as they should, but still not a recipe for success. Rivera shows no signs of slowing down as he has enjoyed perhaps his finest season. The other two are a different story as they appear to be in decline. It is likely that Posada will not be able to catch much longer and will be relegated to DH duties which will dramatically decrease his value. Jeter on the other hand might be done. His range, which was never very good, has been decreasing for years, making him a liability in the field. His fielding could be tolerated when he was still one of the best hitting shortstops in the AL, this year however, he wasn't and there are no signs that he will ever be again.
It could be a very long next five years for the Yankees as well as the US economy. Both consider themselves to be the best in the world, which may have been true for the 20th century, but the twenty first is a different story and both might find themselves taking a backseat for quite some time.
In reality, the Yankee ship has been sinking since their last World Series victory way back in 2000 which leads me to draw several similarities to the US economy:
1. They were both power houses that had been strong throughout the 20th century and peaked as recently as the mid to late 1990s.
2. They both began to deteriorate in 2001.
3. Despite rises and falls, they both have not been the same since.
4. There have been numerous attempts for a quick fix rather than the long rebuilding process that is inevitable at this point.
5. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
6. The people running the show don't understand any of this.
The Yankees are a very old team and have been for quite some time. Going into this year, they had one star player still in his prime: Alex Rodriguez. Strangely this is the player most often blamed for the Yankees problems although he without question has kept them respectable in a year where almost nothing went right. The next closest thing to a star is Wang and while he is a good pitcher, he is not the kind of guy you want to build a staff around.
Most of the rest of the guys: Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Mussina, Giambi, Abreu, Damon, and Matsui are old, past their prime, and waaaaaaaaaaay overpaid. Some of the others: Cabrera, Cano, Kennedy, Hughes, and Joba were too young and not ready to step into everyday roles. It is unsure if any of them will ever be stars.
This leaves Yankee management in a tight spot entering their new stadium in 2009. They have a fanbase that demands winning who will have just gone through the longest winter in over a decade, a fan base that will demand changes every day starting last month. The team has a lot of money coming off the books with: Musssina, Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Pavano, and Ivan Rodriguez all set to be free agents at seasons end. Of those only Mussina, Pettitte, and maybe Abreu figure to be invited back, all be it at much lower rates. The Yankees will still have Jeter, Rodriguez, Damon, Matsui, Posada, Rivera, Cano, and Wang, among others, owed somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 mil, giving them about $50-$60 mill to spend on free agents, and a whole crapload of needs. Names thrown out as possibly heading to NY are: Sabathia, Texeira, Sheets, Ramirez, Ordonez, and AJ Burnett. Sabathia has said he doesn't want to play in New York, Ramirez and Ordonez are getting old and AJ Burnett seems like a disaster waiting to happen which leaves Sheets and Tex whom I think would be good fits. They will cost between $30-$40 mil annually which still leaves the team with 2/5 of a rotation and glaring holes in the outfield as well as the lineup. Even bringing back Mussina, Abreu, and Pettitte might not fix everything. It might make the Yanks relevant next year, but their problems run much deeper.
Boston and Tampa Bay are loaded for the long haul. Even with a complete makeover in the offseason, the Yankees cannot catch up to the surplus of talent owned by these two franchises. Jeter, Rivera, and Posada are old and past their primes, but all three will be allowed to stay with the team until they retire, as they should, but still not a recipe for success. Rivera shows no signs of slowing down as he has enjoyed perhaps his finest season. The other two are a different story as they appear to be in decline. It is likely that Posada will not be able to catch much longer and will be relegated to DH duties which will dramatically decrease his value. Jeter on the other hand might be done. His range, which was never very good, has been decreasing for years, making him a liability in the field. His fielding could be tolerated when he was still one of the best hitting shortstops in the AL, this year however, he wasn't and there are no signs that he will ever be again.
It could be a very long next five years for the Yankees as well as the US economy. Both consider themselves to be the best in the world, which may have been true for the 20th century, but the twenty first is a different story and both might find themselves taking a backseat for quite some time.
Labels: New York Yankees, octoberless, US economy
posted by Andrew Manning at
6:21 PM
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