ALCS Preview

The defending champion Red Sox take on the upstart Rays in a match up of probably the two best teams in baseball. Who will win? Well, lets see how they match up.

Starting pitching:

The Sox will go Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, and Wakefield while the Rays will go Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Sonnanstine.

The Red Sox are clearly better, but how much better will depend on which Beckett shows up. Will it be the Beckett from the division series because if so, the Rays will have a very good chance in games 2 and 6 with their wild card Scott Kazmir pitching. If it is the Beckett from 2003 or 2007, this series is over and it has yet to begin.

Advantage: Red Sox.

Lineup:

The Rays are solid with Iwamura, Crawford, Pena, Navaro, and budding superstars Longoria and Upton. Their holes are at short and possibly rightfield. They also run into trouble against pitchers of the lefthanded persuasion. The Sox counter with 4 very good hitters: Bay, Youk, Ortiz, and Pedroia. The Sox have decent to good hitters in Elsbury, Lowrie, and Drew with the Lowell replacement and Varitek being the holes. They are less suseptable to lefties.

Advantage: Push. The Sox are better on paper, but the Rays have been performing in the playoffs and have some huge talents.

Bullpen:

This is a tough one because the Rays bullpen is deeper, but Papelbon is unquestionably the best reliever in baseball. The Rays can bring Howell, Balfour, Price, and Miller, and that's better than Masterson/Delcarmen/Lopez/Iwojima/Whoever, but it's not enough better to cancel out Papelbon vs. Wheeler which isn't close.

Advantge: Red Sox

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The benches are pretty equal with Lowell's injury possibly tilting the edge to the Rays. The defenses are both excellent, but again the Rays get a bit of an edge. Ditto on the managers. The Sox hold the edge in the intangibles with a variety of playoff warriors.

Advantge: Rays.

Prediction: Sox in 7. I've gone over it a bunch of times and I don't see how they can beat the Sox 4 out of 7. They will have to beat Dice-K twice, Wake once, and either Beckett or Lester once. I see almost no way they can beat Lester since their lineup is severly weakend by a lefty. Lester is also going agaist the erratic Garza. I don't see them beating Dice-K twice, nor do I see them beating Beckett twice. I'll give them the Wakefield game and one against both Dice-K and Beckett, but they fall to series MVP Lester in 7.

Red Sox - Angels Series

I'm going to try to keep this from being a rant against the Angels, but it could turn into that, so consider yourself warned.

Angels ace John Lackey said after the series that the Angels were the better team and that the Red Sox won the series on a series of flukes. Well John, you're wrong and I just lost a lot of respect for you. You were outpitched by Jon Lester not once, but twice. If not for some poor management in the 8th by the Red Sox, you would have been hung with two losses in the series.

The Red Sox were crippled coming in with two of their best hitters hurting, and the best active postseason pitcher a little on the injured side. But despite that, and the fact that many of their stars did not even play well, they still won. They won because they performed in high pressure situations, they pitched better, they excecuted better on the basepaths, and they played much better defense. The funny thing about this is that the Angels are praised for always doing these things.

I don't want to hear anymore about how the Angels play the game the right way and how great Garret Anderson, GMJ, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar are. The Angels coninually blew plays in the field, and made bonehead moves on the bases. The biggest example of course being the squeeze play they blew their would be rally in the 8th inning. WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT!!! I understand that Willits is a great baserunner, all the more reason that he would have scored on a single, sac fly, or grounder. Aybar is not a very good hitter, but he doesn't strikout very much and might have been able to drive in a run by putting it in play. Even if he didn't they would still have Figgins with a chance to drive in the run with a single. Here's the other thing: they tried to bunt against a wild pitcher who was throwing nothing by mid 90s gas. Its hard to bunt such a pitch well, you bring the double play into play, and you completely negate a chance at a walk that could lead to more than a 1 run rally. In short, it was a bad move, but Aybar should not have been hitting anyway. The only reason this series was even close was the outstanding play of Mike Napoli and Mark Teixeira. They combined for 7 of the teams 13 runs, drove in 5, and hit two homers, without them, this surely would have been a sweep.

The Red Sox however, were not without questioning. In the 8th inning Angels rally, the Angels had their 4 best hitters come to the plate with the Sox leading 2-0. The Sox only had to keep the Angels from scoring twice in two innings. When Okajima walked Teixeira with two outs, the Red Sox should have brought in Papelbon to get Guerrero out. Stop the rally before it starts and worry about the 9th when you get there. Yes, Papelbon had throw 32 pitches the day before, but he insists he was ready, always wants the ball, and has electric stuff that would blow Guerrero and or Hunter away. Get him in when you need him most, crush the rally, and deal with the 9th when you get there. Who knows? Maybe the Sox would score a bunch in the 9th and blow it open. The point is that you get through the best hitters on the team and use a lesser reliever to get through the bottom of the order in the 9th. But thats not how we do things in today's game. It makes no sense, but Francona never would have been second guessed for not bringing Paps in. He would however have been torn apart if he went with Paps in the 8th, and they lost in the 9th.

The Sox advanced, but another series like that, and they will be stuck at home for the fall classic.

Playoff Predictions: AL

Red Sox (95-67) vs. Angels (100-62)

I don't understand why everyone loves the Angels. Yes they won 100 games, but they only outscored their opponents by 68 runs. This means that they won a lot of close games which could easily have gone the other way. They also killed the Red Sox when they played them, but this is not the same Sox team that lost those games.

Starting Pitching

The Sox will send Lester, Matsuzaka, and Beckett. Beckett has had an up and down season, but his peripheral numbers are solid and his postseason track record speaks for itself. He strained an oblique in a bullpen session or he'd probably be going in game one. If Beckett was healthy, this would be a 4 game series tops, but he's not and that's the wild card.

TLAAOA will counter with Lackey, Santana, and Saunders. Lackey and Santana, while solid did not pitch as well as Lester and Dice-K this year. Saunders was probably better than Beckett and is certainly better than Wakefield. Beckett has much better stuff and when he's on is better than everyone.

Advantage: Sox even with no Beckett.

Lineup

The Red Sox have the best lineup in the majors... when everyone is healthy. Once again the problem is that everyone isn't healthy. Youkilis and Pedroia were awesome this year, Bay and Ortiz were good and have been great in the past. They also have depth with Casey, Elsbury, Crisp, Cora, and Lowrie. The question marks are Lowell and Drew who will probably play, but may or may not be effective.

The Angles have Guerrero and Teixeira and Napoli has been fantastic down the stretch, but the rest of the line up isn't anything to be afraid of. I have never been a fan of Hunter who has power, but not much else. Then they have Anderson, GMJ and Figgins with Aybar and Kendrick as question marks. These guys will struggle mightily with Dice-K and Beckett, but they might be ok with Wakefield. Lester will also be tough, but not as bad as the righties.

Advantage: Sox even if Drew and Lowell don't get an AB

Bullpen

Yeah, I know KRod just set a major league record for finishing games in an arbitrary fashion, but he was not their best reliever. That distinction belongs to Jose Arrendondo who has been great all year. They also have Shields, Oliver, Weaver, and Garland. I'm counting only one lefty for Ortiz.

I'll take Papelbon over KRod and they also have Okie, Delcarmen, the tricky delivery of Lopez, and the key to the pen: Masterson who is aptly named because he has been masterful.

Advantage: Wash. The Angels will probably have to pitch more innings though.

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Angels have almost no depth and everyone except Tex is injury prone which could cripple them, the Sox have more than enough. The Halos probably have the advantage on defense, but its close. I don't like Sciocia's managing style as much as everyone, because they give up outs. Francona is more my style. The Sox also have the Angels in intangibles with playoff warriors Ortiz, Beckett, and Papelbon in tow.

Prediction: Sox in 4, maybe 3. The Angels just don't have enough.

Everybody Else is Doing it, so why not?

Farewell Yankee Stadium.


At this time tomorrow, Yankee Stadium will be hosting the last game in its illustrious history. It will be closed by the great rivalry that is the Yankees and... the Orioles. Yawn. Why are the Red Sox not closing the stadium on the final day of the season. To the schedule maker: Why would you do that? (or why wouldn't you do that in this case). I guess baseball must have just assumed that the empire would be going to the playoffs again, but it was far from a sure thing as the Rays have proved. I have no sentimental ties to the Stadium and won't miss it. I thought it was incredibly overrated and is a worse place to watch a game than any of the following parks: Jacobs (Progressive) Field, PNC Park, Nationals Park, Fenway, Wrigley, US Cellular, Comerica, Tiger Stadium, and even Shea. Maybe it had to do with the seats I had, I don't know.

Anyway, great park or not, it has witnessed some of the greatest moments in baseball history, and the most championship games of any sports venue in the history of the country so it deserves some kind of tribute. Which brings me to my top 5 memories of the Stadium. Keep in mind that I can't stand the Empire, so the list will be full of bad things happening to the Yankees.

5 couldn't pick one so there's a tie at 5:

a. Byrd handcuff's Yankees, sends them home
A Yankee team built with guys who hammer fastballs couldn't figure out one of the softest tossers in the bigs. They scored 2 runs off the bullpen, but Joe Freakin Borowski managed to get the three highest profile Yankees: Jeter, ARod, and Posada out in the 9th, sealing the deal with a strikeout of Posada. Sizemore had an excellent day with 2 hits, 2 walks and a homer to lead the offense to victory.

b. Tigers Rally, take control of series
On paper, the 2006 ALDS looked like a mismatch especially when they pounded game 1 starter
Nate Robertson for 12 hits and 7 runs. While people like me were screaming at the TV asking of Jim Leland starting Robertson, "Why would you do that?!" When game 2 was rained out, I skipped my religion class to watch the make up live. The Tigers struck first on Thames's double in the second, but NY made it 3-1 with Johnny Damon's 3 run homer in the 4th. The Tigers chipped away with runs in the 5th, 6th, and 7th as Granderson and Guillen came up huge. The Tigers turned it over to Zoom Zoom Zumaya for the 7th and 8th which he dominated, and after a shaky ninth from Todd ~ Jones, the Tigers left the Bronx with a split. That proved to be all they would need as Rogers turned into Christey Matthewson, Randy Johnson's slider went like this --- and Jaret Wrong could not recapture his 1997 form sending the Empire home empty handed once again.

4. Cone's Perfect Game
It was Yogi Berra day at the stadium, July 18th, 1999. The battery from the only perfect game (or no hitter) in postseason history was in attendance (Berra and Larsen) and David Cone was on the mound against the Montreal Expos. Cone, the man whom I consider to be the most important player for the Yankees 1990s dynasty, had thrown 7 no hit innings in 1996, but was removed after hitting a very strict pitch count. In 1996, it was Cone's first start in 4 months after suffering and aneurysm. Cone had a second chance at immortality and no pitch count, no a rain delay could have stop him as he needed just 88 pitches, and withstood a half hour rain delay to throw the last perfect game of the millennium, and the only perfect game in regular season interleague play. I managed to catch the last 3 innings on bonus coverage. The game strangely marked the end of Cone's dominance as he was largely ineffective the rest of the season, suffered through an awful 2000 season where he was restricted to relief duty in the playoffs, and never regained his previous form.

3. 2003 ALCS
The best rivalry in sports went head to head in the playoffs for only the second time ever in one of the greatest postseason series I have ever witnessed. Only one game was decided by more than two runs. The Yankees had owned baseball for the last decade, but Boston and new hot shot GM Theo Epstein was on the rise. It was Epstein's first year and he wasted no time making changes bringing in players such as Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, and most importantly David Ortiz (who had been RELEASED by the Twins). He also announced that his team would use a "Closer by committee" which was completely against the strategy used by most managers. The Red Sox had also not won a World Series in 85 years while the Yankees had won 26. The tensions had mounted over the previous years and the rivalry was arguably at an all time high. In game 3 those tensions boiled over. With Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens dueling it out, Pedro hit Karim Garcia resulting in a shouting match and Pedro famously pointing at his head which many took as him saying "Ill hit you in the head!" The next inning, Clemens came in high and tight to the always volatile Manny Ramirez. Despite the fact that the pitch was nowhere near his head, Ramirez mouthed the words "F*** You" and began walking towards the mound. The benches emptied and Yankee bench coach, the 72 year old Don Zimmer went after Pedro who threw him to the ground and swung at his head.

The Red Sox, led by Tim Wakefields dominance won games 1 and 4 while the Yankees won games 2, 3, and 5 holding Boston to just 7 runs in the 3 games. Game 6 saw the veteran John Burkett taking on Yankee playoff ace Andy Pettitte with the Sox fighting off elimination. The Sox jumped out to a 4-1 lead but lost it when Nomar Gaciaparra botched the 3rd out in the 5th, leading to 2 unearned runs. Nomar would redeem himself starting a 3 run rally in the 7th to lead the team to victory forcing game 7 and a rematch of Clemens vs. Pedro.


The game lived up to the hype as it was exciting from the start. Clemens was shelled early and left after giving up Millar's homer in the 4th that made it 4-0. It looked like it could be the end of Clemens career in what would be the first of many curtain calls for the king of mismemory. With the Sox up 4-2 in the 8th and Pedro around 100 pitches, Grady Little was ordered by Epstein to remove Pedro from the game. He sent him out there anyway. After Pedro allowed the first run, Little went out and had one of the most famous conversations on the mound in history. With Timlin and Embree ready in the pen, Little asked Pedro if he could stay in. Pedro pointed to himself saying that he was ready and Little left him in. Back to back doubles by Matsui and Posada tied the game and Little went to his pen. The pen was able to keep the score tied, but the damage had been done. Rivera came in and handcuffed the Sox for 3 innings. The Sox once again turned to series ace Tim Wakefield for help, and he pitched a perfect 10th, but in the bottom of the 11th, the flutterball finally ran out of miracles as Aaron Boone of all people led of the inning with a walk off homer, becoming this generation's version of Bucky bleepin' Dent.

2. Beckett Becomes The Man
The Yankees had survived the Sox and faced the upstart Marlins, who were heavy underdogs, in the world series. The Marlins played much better than expected leading 3-2 as the series returned to the Bronx. Unfortunately the only rested Marlin pitcher was Mark Redman who had been hammered in game 2 by the bombers. To add to that, the Yankees had old reliable Andy Pettitte set to start. Marlins manager Jack McKeon boldly chose his projected game 7 starter, the 23 year old Josh Beckett, to start on 3 days rest. Beckett, a former 1st round pick, had been very successful in the playoffs and had pitched well in game 3, but was not an established star at the time, and had thrown 108 pitches 4 days earlier. The move was questioned by everyone, including yours truly. Beckett made McKeon look like a genius when he went the distance for a 5 hit shutout. No Yankee reached 3rd base as Beckett proved himself to be a big game pitcher, becoming the first pitcher since Jack Morris in 1991 to clinch the series with a shutout, sending the Yankees home crying.

1. Shilling's Bloody Sock
If the rivalry peaked in 2003, it rose even higher in 2004. The Sox once again rebuilt themselves in the offseason for the sole purpose of getting past the Yankees. Curt Schilling and closer Keith Foulke were the centerpieces of the winter. Schilling had established himself as the best big game pitcher in baseball, leading the Diamondbacks to the World Series in 2001 and taking the ball every 4th day in the playoffs for most of his career. Foulke was a star closer for the A's and figured to sure up the bullpen that Little had passed over in favor of a tiring Pedro Martinez. In the middle of the season, Epstein shook things up even more trading superstar Nomar Garciaparra for Doug Mentkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera. Schilling did not disappoint going 21-6, finishing second to Johan Santana for the Cy Young, and pitching well in his first round start against the Angels. The outspoken Schilling boldly took the mound in game 1 saying before the game, "I can't think of anything better than making 60,000 people from New York shut up!" The Yankees responded by shutting Schilling up with 6 runs in 3 innings and Schilling left injured. The Yanks fought off a late rally by the Sox to win 10-7 in game 1. The won a squeaker against Pedro in game 2, and destroyed basically the entire pitching staff in game 3 19-8. They entered Fenway in game 4 up 3-0. No team had ever come back from 3-0 in the history of baseball.

With Schilling out, former 20 game winner Derek Lowe took the mound against playoff stud Orlando Hernandez. Lowe blew a 3-2 lead and the Yankees, up 4-3, turned it over to the automatic Mo Rivera in the 8th for a two inning save. What transpired was perhaps the most amazing course of events I have ever seen in baseball.

After a perfect 8th, Rivera walked Kevin Millar who was pinch run for by stolen base specialist Dave Roberts. Even though everyone in the world knew he was going, Roberts survived multiple pickoff attempts by Rivera, went on the first pitch, and barely stole second. Bill Mueller singled and Roberts ran like there was no tomorrow racing home to tie the game. After Rivera kept the score tied, Curt Leskanic escaped a bases loaded jam in the 11th, and the Sox entered the bottom of 12 with the score still 5-4. Ramirez singled and Ortiz homered to win the game 6-4.

Game 5 saw Pedro take the hill once again against Yanks starter Mike Mussina. Pedro blew an early lead, but the Yanks bullpen blew it back leaving the score 4-4 until the 14th as both teams narrowly dodged bullets. Walks by Damon and Ramirez brought Ortiz to the plate with 2 on and 2 out. Big Papi as he had come to be called responded with a clutch hit for the second consecutive night, a single the allowed Damon to score the winning run. The game returned to Yankee stadium for game 6.

Curt Schilling had been trying and trying to get back on the mound since game 1 and after back to back extra inning affairs, the Sox were basically out of options for game 6. An experimental procedure attaching the skin to the bone in his right ankle was put into play with hopes that it would allow him to use his natural pitching mechanics. Schilling responded with the guttiest performance I have ever seen throwing 7 innings of 4 hit ball with a Bernie Williams homer the only run. Midway through the game, cameras panned to the sock on his right ankle which, by then, was stained with blood. The 4 runs the Sox scored in the 4th would be all they would need despite ARod's best attempt to cheat by swatting Bronson Arroyo's tag in the 8th. Foulke held on to a 2 run lead in the 9th to force game 7, the first team that had been down 3-0 to do so. The Sox would go on to blow the Yanks out in game 7, win the world series and break the curse of the Bambino. Ortiz was named series MVP after going 12 for 31 with 3 homers and the two key game winners. Foulke finished the series having allowed no runs on one hit and pitching in 5 games including preserving the wins in 4, 5, and 6.

It may be the house the Ruth built, but Ruth never had to face Curt Schilling, the biggest Yankee killer of them all.

The Boston Red Sox: The Clear World Series Favorites

Well, it looks like my preseason pick of the Cleveland Indians did not work out for the series although I still maintain that without a barrage of injuries it would have. Anyways it's time to reassess heading into the last week of the season.

In the NL you have the Cubs... And well, the Cubs. If the Marlins manage to get in, they will be dangerous, but they're five games back with less than 10 to play so it looks bad for them. Any of the other teams, while they may make an improbable run to the series, will be severely over matched by any of the AL teams excluding whoever wins Comedy Central.

That leaves the Sox, Rays, and Angels as contenders. Everyone loves the Angels, but I tend to disagree. TLAAOA have a good record in a terrible division, a guy who just set a record for the most of the stupidest statistical category there is in one season, and a manager everyone loves. What they don't have is a dominating team. The have scored only 704 runs, 10th in the AL in: awful, and they have allowed 639, 4th in the AL: decent but not great. Their run differential is 7th in the AL and worse than 4 of the teams in the AL East. The lineup consists of 2.5 good hitters, a few mediocre and the rest bad. The bench is bad. The bullpen is excellent, but will pitch at most 3-4 innings per game. They have one legit ace, 2 more solid starters, and 2 about average starters. They are a team built to succeed over a long season because they have good pitching for every day. They are not built to win in October which takes great hitting and even greater pitching. To top it off, this is nowhere near the best Angels team in the past 5 years, and none of them have done much in October, so why should this bunch?

The Rays are very young, but very talented. They possess a pitching staff about as good as TLAAOA, but a much better lineup. While they lack the up front star power of Guerrero and Teixeira, they have 8 guys who can all beat you starting with soon to be superstar Evan Longoria. Trust me, this is David Wright of the AL. The only legit out in the lineup is Bartlett and he's at least as good as Aybar, Matthews, and Mathis. The Rays will likely fall victim to the "No stars" or the "No experience" paradox. Both have been overcome with young talent by the '03 Marlins and the '02 Angels, but usually you need one or the other.

Which brings me to the team of the '00s, the Boston Red Sox. They look ready to go for their 3rd title in 5 years as they have all the pieces to the puzzle. A solid lineup with plenty of playoff experience, a solid bench, the best closer in baseball other than Rivera and maybe Nathan, and a 3 man rotation of Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka. The keys are David Ortiz and even more importantly Josh Beckett.

As Curt Schilling, the best big game pitcher of his generation put it, "Beckett is the best big game pitcher in the game today." He certainly has a great track record: 2 postseasons, 2 world series rings, 2 postseason MVP awards. Beckett's career postseason numbers are some of the best ever: 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 10.2 K/9. Even in his two losses, he has yet to have a bad postseason outing. By comparison, his numbers are better than John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Jack Morris, Sandy Koufax, and are even close to playoff superstar Mariano Rivera.

Ortiz is also excellent his career postseason line is .317/.418/.587, and if you throw out the time before he got to Boston, it's an even more impressive .325/.443/.613, among the best of all time for those with over 150 PAs.

Anything can happen in a short series, but Boston has got to be the odds on favorite to repeat as champs.