Friday, October 03, 2008

The Best Postseason Pitchers of all time

Now were in the playoffs lets do a top 5 October Edition. Mo Rivera has the best postseason numbers of all pitchers, but we are going to focus entirely on starters here. Basically, if you could build a rotation of playoff studs, who would it be? All based on having to win one game.

The requirements:
1. Must have at least 50 innings pitched.
2. Must have pitched in and won at least 1 world series.
3. Must have been primarily a starter during said WS.
4. Must have started at least 2 WS games.

5. John Smoltz: 15-4, 2.65 ERA, 24 Postseason Series, 1 WS Ring
Smoltz has been downright nasty as both a closer and a pitcher, but his playoff career is filled with things he couldn't do. After doing enough to beat Jack Morris in game 4 of the '91 series, Smoltz went toe to toe with Morris again in game 7. The game, which is arguably the greatest game 7 ever in any sport, was a shutout of 9 innings. Smoltz threw 7 of those and pitched very well. Morris threw 10 and won 1-0. Morris did not have Smoltz's career numbers, but he had 3 rings and in 1991, he was certainly the best. Smoltz also got a tough luck loss in game 5 of the 1996 WS where he went 8, gave up 0 earned runs, struck out 10 and lost 1-0 despite outpitching Andy Pettitte thanks to a Marquis Grissom error. Strangely, Smoltz's worst playoff series was the 1995 World Series, which is the only one the Braves won.

4. Josh Beckett: 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 6 Postseason Series, 2 WS Rings
Okay, this may be a bit premature, but Beckett's postseason record speaks for itself: 2 postseasons, 2 rings, 2 postseason MVP awards, 2 world series his teams certainly would not have won without him. Heck, he's only had one bad outing in the playoffs! Game 1 of the Bartman series. We'll see if he can do it again in 2008.

3. Christey Matthewson: 5-5, 0.97 ERA, 4 WS, 1 WS Ring
Matthewson pitched the single greatest world series performance ever. Even better than Don Larsen's perfect game. Matty in the 1905 series threw 3 games, 3 wins, 3 shutouts. 27 innings, no runs. No one is that good. Matty never won another ring, but he pitched very well in 3 additional world series allowing just 11 earned runs in 74.2 more innings. Possibly the best pitcher ever too.

2. Sandy Koufax: 4-3, 0.95 ERA, 4 WS, 3 Rings
At his peak, no one was better than Sandy. In '63 and '65, Koufax was 4-1 and allowed 4 earned runs in 42 innings. How he lost that game is beyond me. The Dodgers however, won both series. They failed wo make it in '64, and in '66, Koufax and Drysdale were not enough to compensate for the fact that the Dodgers scored TWO RUNS in a 4 game sweep by the O's.

1. Curt Schilling: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 12 Postseason series, 3 Rings
Schilling was great in the regular season, but absolutely phenomenal in the playoffs. He pitched in 12 series, his teams only lost two: the 1993 World Series, and the 2002 NLDS. Had it not been for Joe Carter that number might be only one as Schilling pitched an incredible game 5 147 pitch shutout to save an exhausted bullpen and extend the series. The Phils were in position to force a game 7 with Wild Thing Williams on the hill in the 9th, but we all know how that ended.

Schilling only lost 2 playoff games and only had 3 bad starts out of 19. His first loss was his first ever World Series start in 1993 when he was 26, his second was game 1 of the 2004 ALCS when he injured his ankle. His 3rd bad start was in the 2007 ALCS against Cleveland. In each case, he rebounded to dominate in his next outing. He went 1-4-7 in the 2001 Series against the Yankee dynasty, allowing 4 runs in 21 innings. He dominated all 3 games winning game 1, was in line for the win in game 4, and kept the Snakes close enough for the heroic comeback in game 7.

Honorable mention:

Bob Gibson: Excelled in 3 WS (2 wins) starting 1-4-7 in all of them and going 9 innings in all of them. He beat 31 game winning Denny McLain to win 1-4 of the 1968 WS, but McLain came back on 2 days rest in game 6 to force game 7 and Mickey Lolich and the Tigers finally beat Gibby.

Jack Morris: Great in the 1984, and 1991 playoff runs, not so much in his other 2 trips to the playoffs. Won 3 rings, pitching 2 excellent CGs in 1984, and the incredible 10 inning shutout in game 7 of the 1991 series to win the series MVP.

Randy Johnson: Not a great postseason career, but was 31 when he got there for the first time (oldest of anyone mentioned here). And his 2001 playoff run was better than anyone else's even Schilling and Beckett. Winning 5 games in the last 2 series including 2, 6, and 7 in relief of Schilling in the world series for his only ring.

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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Playoff Predictions: AL

Red Sox (95-67) vs. Angels (100-62)

I don't understand why everyone loves the Angels. Yes they won 100 games, but they only outscored their opponents by 68 runs. This means that they won a lot of close games which could easily have gone the other way. They also killed the Red Sox when they played them, but this is not the same Sox team that lost those games.

Starting Pitching

The Sox will send Lester, Matsuzaka, and Beckett. Beckett has had an up and down season, but his peripheral numbers are solid and his postseason track record speaks for itself. He strained an oblique in a bullpen session or he'd probably be going in game one. If Beckett was healthy, this would be a 4 game series tops, but he's not and that's the wild card.

TLAAOA will counter with Lackey, Santana, and Saunders. Lackey and Santana, while solid did not pitch as well as Lester and Dice-K this year. Saunders was probably better than Beckett and is certainly better than Wakefield. Beckett has much better stuff and when he's on is better than everyone.

Advantage: Sox even with no Beckett.

Lineup

The Red Sox have the best lineup in the majors... when everyone is healthy. Once again the problem is that everyone isn't healthy. Youkilis and Pedroia were awesome this year, Bay and Ortiz were good and have been great in the past. They also have depth with Casey, Elsbury, Crisp, Cora, and Lowrie. The question marks are Lowell and Drew who will probably play, but may or may not be effective.

The Angles have Guerrero and Teixeira and Napoli has been fantastic down the stretch, but the rest of the line up isn't anything to be afraid of. I have never been a fan of Hunter who has power, but not much else. Then they have Anderson, GMJ and Figgins with Aybar and Kendrick as question marks. These guys will struggle mightily with Dice-K and Beckett, but they might be ok with Wakefield. Lester will also be tough, but not as bad as the righties.

Advantage: Sox even if Drew and Lowell don't get an AB

Bullpen

Yeah, I know KRod just set a major league record for finishing games in an arbitrary fashion, but he was not their best reliever. That distinction belongs to Jose Arrendondo who has been great all year. They also have Shields, Oliver, Weaver, and Garland. I'm counting only one lefty for Ortiz.

I'll take Papelbon over KRod and they also have Okie, Delcarmen, the tricky delivery of Lopez, and the key to the pen: Masterson who is aptly named because he has been masterful.

Advantage: Wash. The Angels will probably have to pitch more innings though.

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Angels have almost no depth and everyone except Tex is injury prone which could cripple them, the Sox have more than enough. The Halos probably have the advantage on defense, but its close. I don't like Sciocia's managing style as much as everyone, because they give up outs. Francona is more my style. The Sox also have the Angels in intangibles with playoff warriors Ortiz, Beckett, and Papelbon in tow.

Prediction: Sox in 4, maybe 3. The Angels just don't have enough.

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Saturday, September 20, 2008

Everybody Else is Doing it, so why not?

Farewell Yankee Stadium.


At this time tomorrow, Yankee Stadium will be hosting the last game in its illustrious history. It will be closed by the great rivalry that is the Yankees and... the Orioles. Yawn. Why are the Red Sox not closing the stadium on the final day of the season. To the schedule maker: Why would you do that? (or why wouldn't you do that in this case). I guess baseball must have just assumed that the empire would be going to the playoffs again, but it was far from a sure thing as the Rays have proved. I have no sentimental ties to the Stadium and won't miss it. I thought it was incredibly overrated and is a worse place to watch a game than any of the following parks: Jacobs (Progressive) Field, PNC Park, Nationals Park, Fenway, Wrigley, US Cellular, Comerica, Tiger Stadium, and even Shea. Maybe it had to do with the seats I had, I don't know.

Anyway, great park or not, it has witnessed some of the greatest moments in baseball history, and the most championship games of any sports venue in the history of the country so it deserves some kind of tribute. Which brings me to my top 5 memories of the Stadium. Keep in mind that I can't stand the Empire, so the list will be full of bad things happening to the Yankees.

5 couldn't pick one so there's a tie at 5:

a. Byrd handcuff's Yankees, sends them home
A Yankee team built with guys who hammer fastballs couldn't figure out one of the softest tossers in the bigs. They scored 2 runs off the bullpen, but Joe Freakin Borowski managed to get the three highest profile Yankees: Jeter, ARod, and Posada out in the 9th, sealing the deal with a strikeout of Posada. Sizemore had an excellent day with 2 hits, 2 walks and a homer to lead the offense to victory.

b. Tigers Rally, take control of series
On paper, the 2006 ALDS looked like a mismatch especially when they pounded game 1 starter
Nate Robertson for 12 hits and 7 runs. While people like me were screaming at the TV asking of Jim Leland starting Robertson, "Why would you do that?!" When game 2 was rained out, I skipped my religion class to watch the make up live. The Tigers struck first on Thames's double in the second, but NY made it 3-1 with Johnny Damon's 3 run homer in the 4th. The Tigers chipped away with runs in the 5th, 6th, and 7th as Granderson and Guillen came up huge. The Tigers turned it over to Zoom Zoom Zumaya for the 7th and 8th which he dominated, and after a shaky ninth from Todd ~ Jones, the Tigers left the Bronx with a split. That proved to be all they would need as Rogers turned into Christey Matthewson, Randy Johnson's slider went like this --- and Jaret Wrong could not recapture his 1997 form sending the Empire home empty handed once again.

4. Cone's Perfect Game
It was Yogi Berra day at the stadium, July 18th, 1999. The battery from the only perfect game (or no hitter) in postseason history was in attendance (Berra and Larsen) and David Cone was on the mound against the Montreal Expos. Cone, the man whom I consider to be the most important player for the Yankees 1990s dynasty, had thrown 7 no hit innings in 1996, but was removed after hitting a very strict pitch count. In 1996, it was Cone's first start in 4 months after suffering and aneurysm. Cone had a second chance at immortality and no pitch count, no a rain delay could have stop him as he needed just 88 pitches, and withstood a half hour rain delay to throw the last perfect game of the millennium, and the only perfect game in regular season interleague play. I managed to catch the last 3 innings on bonus coverage. The game strangely marked the end of Cone's dominance as he was largely ineffective the rest of the season, suffered through an awful 2000 season where he was restricted to relief duty in the playoffs, and never regained his previous form.

3. 2003 ALCS
The best rivalry in sports went head to head in the playoffs for only the second time ever in one of the greatest postseason series I have ever witnessed. Only one game was decided by more than two runs. The Yankees had owned baseball for the last decade, but Boston and new hot shot GM Theo Epstein was on the rise. It was Epstein's first year and he wasted no time making changes bringing in players such as Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, and most importantly David Ortiz (who had been RELEASED by the Twins). He also announced that his team would use a "Closer by committee" which was completely against the strategy used by most managers. The Red Sox had also not won a World Series in 85 years while the Yankees had won 26. The tensions had mounted over the previous years and the rivalry was arguably at an all time high. In game 3 those tensions boiled over. With Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens dueling it out, Pedro hit Karim Garcia resulting in a shouting match and Pedro famously pointing at his head which many took as him saying "Ill hit you in the head!" The next inning, Clemens came in high and tight to the always volatile Manny Ramirez. Despite the fact that the pitch was nowhere near his head, Ramirez mouthed the words "F*** You" and began walking towards the mound. The benches emptied and Yankee bench coach, the 72 year old Don Zimmer went after Pedro who threw him to the ground and swung at his head.

The Red Sox, led by Tim Wakefields dominance won games 1 and 4 while the Yankees won games 2, 3, and 5 holding Boston to just 7 runs in the 3 games. Game 6 saw the veteran John Burkett taking on Yankee playoff ace Andy Pettitte with the Sox fighting off elimination. The Sox jumped out to a 4-1 lead but lost it when Nomar Gaciaparra botched the 3rd out in the 5th, leading to 2 unearned runs. Nomar would redeem himself starting a 3 run rally in the 7th to lead the team to victory forcing game 7 and a rematch of Clemens vs. Pedro.


The game lived up to the hype as it was exciting from the start. Clemens was shelled early and left after giving up Millar's homer in the 4th that made it 4-0. It looked like it could be the end of Clemens career in what would be the first of many curtain calls for the king of mismemory. With the Sox up 4-2 in the 8th and Pedro around 100 pitches, Grady Little was ordered by Epstein to remove Pedro from the game. He sent him out there anyway. After Pedro allowed the first run, Little went out and had one of the most famous conversations on the mound in history. With Timlin and Embree ready in the pen, Little asked Pedro if he could stay in. Pedro pointed to himself saying that he was ready and Little left him in. Back to back doubles by Matsui and Posada tied the game and Little went to his pen. The pen was able to keep the score tied, but the damage had been done. Rivera came in and handcuffed the Sox for 3 innings. The Sox once again turned to series ace Tim Wakefield for help, and he pitched a perfect 10th, but in the bottom of the 11th, the flutterball finally ran out of miracles as Aaron Boone of all people led of the inning with a walk off homer, becoming this generation's version of Bucky bleepin' Dent.

2. Beckett Becomes The Man
The Yankees had survived the Sox and faced the upstart Marlins, who were heavy underdogs, in the world series. The Marlins played much better than expected leading 3-2 as the series returned to the Bronx. Unfortunately the only rested Marlin pitcher was Mark Redman who had been hammered in game 2 by the bombers. To add to that, the Yankees had old reliable Andy Pettitte set to start. Marlins manager Jack McKeon boldly chose his projected game 7 starter, the 23 year old Josh Beckett, to start on 3 days rest. Beckett, a former 1st round pick, had been very successful in the playoffs and had pitched well in game 3, but was not an established star at the time, and had thrown 108 pitches 4 days earlier. The move was questioned by everyone, including yours truly. Beckett made McKeon look like a genius when he went the distance for a 5 hit shutout. No Yankee reached 3rd base as Beckett proved himself to be a big game pitcher, becoming the first pitcher since Jack Morris in 1991 to clinch the series with a shutout, sending the Yankees home crying.

1. Shilling's Bloody Sock
If the rivalry peaked in 2003, it rose even higher in 2004. The Sox once again rebuilt themselves in the offseason for the sole purpose of getting past the Yankees. Curt Schilling and closer Keith Foulke were the centerpieces of the winter. Schilling had established himself as the best big game pitcher in baseball, leading the Diamondbacks to the World Series in 2001 and taking the ball every 4th day in the playoffs for most of his career. Foulke was a star closer for the A's and figured to sure up the bullpen that Little had passed over in favor of a tiring Pedro Martinez. In the middle of the season, Epstein shook things up even more trading superstar Nomar Garciaparra for Doug Mentkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera. Schilling did not disappoint going 21-6, finishing second to Johan Santana for the Cy Young, and pitching well in his first round start against the Angels. The outspoken Schilling boldly took the mound in game 1 saying before the game, "I can't think of anything better than making 60,000 people from New York shut up!" The Yankees responded by shutting Schilling up with 6 runs in 3 innings and Schilling left injured. The Yanks fought off a late rally by the Sox to win 10-7 in game 1. The won a squeaker against Pedro in game 2, and destroyed basically the entire pitching staff in game 3 19-8. They entered Fenway in game 4 up 3-0. No team had ever come back from 3-0 in the history of baseball.

With Schilling out, former 20 game winner Derek Lowe took the mound against playoff stud Orlando Hernandez. Lowe blew a 3-2 lead and the Yankees, up 4-3, turned it over to the automatic Mo Rivera in the 8th for a two inning save. What transpired was perhaps the most amazing course of events I have ever seen in baseball.

After a perfect 8th, Rivera walked Kevin Millar who was pinch run for by stolen base specialist Dave Roberts. Even though everyone in the world knew he was going, Roberts survived multiple pickoff attempts by Rivera, went on the first pitch, and barely stole second. Bill Mueller singled and Roberts ran like there was no tomorrow racing home to tie the game. After Rivera kept the score tied, Curt Leskanic escaped a bases loaded jam in the 11th, and the Sox entered the bottom of 12 with the score still 5-4. Ramirez singled and Ortiz homered to win the game 6-4.

Game 5 saw Pedro take the hill once again against Yanks starter Mike Mussina. Pedro blew an early lead, but the Yanks bullpen blew it back leaving the score 4-4 until the 14th as both teams narrowly dodged bullets. Walks by Damon and Ramirez brought Ortiz to the plate with 2 on and 2 out. Big Papi as he had come to be called responded with a clutch hit for the second consecutive night, a single the allowed Damon to score the winning run. The game returned to Yankee stadium for game 6.

Curt Schilling had been trying and trying to get back on the mound since game 1 and after back to back extra inning affairs, the Sox were basically out of options for game 6. An experimental procedure attaching the skin to the bone in his right ankle was put into play with hopes that it would allow him to use his natural pitching mechanics. Schilling responded with the guttiest performance I have ever seen throwing 7 innings of 4 hit ball with a Bernie Williams homer the only run. Midway through the game, cameras panned to the sock on his right ankle which, by then, was stained with blood. The 4 runs the Sox scored in the 4th would be all they would need despite ARod's best attempt to cheat by swatting Bronson Arroyo's tag in the 8th. Foulke held on to a 2 run lead in the 9th to force game 7, the first team that had been down 3-0 to do so. The Sox would go on to blow the Yanks out in game 7, win the world series and break the curse of the Bambino. Ortiz was named series MVP after going 12 for 31 with 3 homers and the two key game winners. Foulke finished the series having allowed no runs on one hit and pitching in 5 games including preserving the wins in 4, 5, and 6.

It may be the house the Ruth built, but Ruth never had to face Curt Schilling, the biggest Yankee killer of them all.

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Friday, September 19, 2008

The Boston Red Sox: The Clear World Series Favorites

Well, it looks like my preseason pick of the Cleveland Indians did not work out for the series although I still maintain that without a barrage of injuries it would have. Anyways it's time to reassess heading into the last week of the season.

In the NL you have the Cubs... And well, the Cubs. If the Marlins manage to get in, they will be dangerous, but they're five games back with less than 10 to play so it looks bad for them. Any of the other teams, while they may make an improbable run to the series, will be severely over matched by any of the AL teams excluding whoever wins Comedy Central.

That leaves the Sox, Rays, and Angels as contenders. Everyone loves the Angels, but I tend to disagree. TLAAOA have a good record in a terrible division, a guy who just set a record for the most of the stupidest statistical category there is in one season, and a manager everyone loves. What they don't have is a dominating team. The have scored only 704 runs, 10th in the AL in: awful, and they have allowed 639, 4th in the AL: decent but not great. Their run differential is 7th in the AL and worse than 4 of the teams in the AL East. The lineup consists of 2.5 good hitters, a few mediocre and the rest bad. The bench is bad. The bullpen is excellent, but will pitch at most 3-4 innings per game. They have one legit ace, 2 more solid starters, and 2 about average starters. They are a team built to succeed over a long season because they have good pitching for every day. They are not built to win in October which takes great hitting and even greater pitching. To top it off, this is nowhere near the best Angels team in the past 5 years, and none of them have done much in October, so why should this bunch?

The Rays are very young, but very talented. They possess a pitching staff about as good as TLAAOA, but a much better lineup. While they lack the up front star power of Guerrero and Teixeira, they have 8 guys who can all beat you starting with soon to be superstar Evan Longoria. Trust me, this is David Wright of the AL. The only legit out in the lineup is Bartlett and he's at least as good as Aybar, Matthews, and Mathis. The Rays will likely fall victim to the "No stars" or the "No experience" paradox. Both have been overcome with young talent by the '03 Marlins and the '02 Angels, but usually you need one or the other.

Which brings me to the team of the '00s, the Boston Red Sox. They look ready to go for their 3rd title in 5 years as they have all the pieces to the puzzle. A solid lineup with plenty of playoff experience, a solid bench, the best closer in baseball other than Rivera and maybe Nathan, and a 3 man rotation of Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka. The keys are David Ortiz and even more importantly Josh Beckett.

As Curt Schilling, the best big game pitcher of his generation put it, "Beckett is the best big game pitcher in the game today." He certainly has a great track record: 2 postseasons, 2 world series rings, 2 postseason MVP awards. Beckett's career postseason numbers are some of the best ever: 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 10.2 K/9. Even in his two losses, he has yet to have a bad postseason outing. By comparison, his numbers are better than John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Jack Morris, Sandy Koufax, and are even close to playoff superstar Mariano Rivera.

Ortiz is also excellent his career postseason line is .317/.418/.587, and if you throw out the time before he got to Boston, it's an even more impressive .325/.443/.613, among the best of all time for those with over 150 PAs.

Anything can happen in a short series, but Boston has got to be the odds on favorite to repeat as champs.

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