Red Sox - Angels Series

I'm going to try to keep this from being a rant against the Angels, but it could turn into that, so consider yourself warned.

Angels ace John Lackey said after the series that the Angels were the better team and that the Red Sox won the series on a series of flukes. Well John, you're wrong and I just lost a lot of respect for you. You were outpitched by Jon Lester not once, but twice. If not for some poor management in the 8th by the Red Sox, you would have been hung with two losses in the series.

The Red Sox were crippled coming in with two of their best hitters hurting, and the best active postseason pitcher a little on the injured side. But despite that, and the fact that many of their stars did not even play well, they still won. They won because they performed in high pressure situations, they pitched better, they excecuted better on the basepaths, and they played much better defense. The funny thing about this is that the Angels are praised for always doing these things.

I don't want to hear anymore about how the Angels play the game the right way and how great Garret Anderson, GMJ, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar are. The Angels coninually blew plays in the field, and made bonehead moves on the bases. The biggest example of course being the squeeze play they blew their would be rally in the 8th inning. WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT!!! I understand that Willits is a great baserunner, all the more reason that he would have scored on a single, sac fly, or grounder. Aybar is not a very good hitter, but he doesn't strikout very much and might have been able to drive in a run by putting it in play. Even if he didn't they would still have Figgins with a chance to drive in the run with a single. Here's the other thing: they tried to bunt against a wild pitcher who was throwing nothing by mid 90s gas. Its hard to bunt such a pitch well, you bring the double play into play, and you completely negate a chance at a walk that could lead to more than a 1 run rally. In short, it was a bad move, but Aybar should not have been hitting anyway. The only reason this series was even close was the outstanding play of Mike Napoli and Mark Teixeira. They combined for 7 of the teams 13 runs, drove in 5, and hit two homers, without them, this surely would have been a sweep.

The Red Sox however, were not without questioning. In the 8th inning Angels rally, the Angels had their 4 best hitters come to the plate with the Sox leading 2-0. The Sox only had to keep the Angels from scoring twice in two innings. When Okajima walked Teixeira with two outs, the Red Sox should have brought in Papelbon to get Guerrero out. Stop the rally before it starts and worry about the 9th when you get there. Yes, Papelbon had throw 32 pitches the day before, but he insists he was ready, always wants the ball, and has electric stuff that would blow Guerrero and or Hunter away. Get him in when you need him most, crush the rally, and deal with the 9th when you get there. Who knows? Maybe the Sox would score a bunch in the 9th and blow it open. The point is that you get through the best hitters on the team and use a lesser reliever to get through the bottom of the order in the 9th. But thats not how we do things in today's game. It makes no sense, but Francona never would have been second guessed for not bringing Paps in. He would however have been torn apart if he went with Paps in the 8th, and they lost in the 9th.

The Sox advanced, but another series like that, and they will be stuck at home for the fall classic.

Playoff Predictions: AL

Red Sox (95-67) vs. Angels (100-62)

I don't understand why everyone loves the Angels. Yes they won 100 games, but they only outscored their opponents by 68 runs. This means that they won a lot of close games which could easily have gone the other way. They also killed the Red Sox when they played them, but this is not the same Sox team that lost those games.

Starting Pitching

The Sox will send Lester, Matsuzaka, and Beckett. Beckett has had an up and down season, but his peripheral numbers are solid and his postseason track record speaks for itself. He strained an oblique in a bullpen session or he'd probably be going in game one. If Beckett was healthy, this would be a 4 game series tops, but he's not and that's the wild card.

TLAAOA will counter with Lackey, Santana, and Saunders. Lackey and Santana, while solid did not pitch as well as Lester and Dice-K this year. Saunders was probably better than Beckett and is certainly better than Wakefield. Beckett has much better stuff and when he's on is better than everyone.

Advantage: Sox even with no Beckett.

Lineup

The Red Sox have the best lineup in the majors... when everyone is healthy. Once again the problem is that everyone isn't healthy. Youkilis and Pedroia were awesome this year, Bay and Ortiz were good and have been great in the past. They also have depth with Casey, Elsbury, Crisp, Cora, and Lowrie. The question marks are Lowell and Drew who will probably play, but may or may not be effective.

The Angles have Guerrero and Teixeira and Napoli has been fantastic down the stretch, but the rest of the line up isn't anything to be afraid of. I have never been a fan of Hunter who has power, but not much else. Then they have Anderson, GMJ and Figgins with Aybar and Kendrick as question marks. These guys will struggle mightily with Dice-K and Beckett, but they might be ok with Wakefield. Lester will also be tough, but not as bad as the righties.

Advantage: Sox even if Drew and Lowell don't get an AB

Bullpen

Yeah, I know KRod just set a major league record for finishing games in an arbitrary fashion, but he was not their best reliever. That distinction belongs to Jose Arrendondo who has been great all year. They also have Shields, Oliver, Weaver, and Garland. I'm counting only one lefty for Ortiz.

I'll take Papelbon over KRod and they also have Okie, Delcarmen, the tricky delivery of Lopez, and the key to the pen: Masterson who is aptly named because he has been masterful.

Advantage: Wash. The Angels will probably have to pitch more innings though.

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Angels have almost no depth and everyone except Tex is injury prone which could cripple them, the Sox have more than enough. The Halos probably have the advantage on defense, but its close. I don't like Sciocia's managing style as much as everyone, because they give up outs. Francona is more my style. The Sox also have the Angels in intangibles with playoff warriors Ortiz, Beckett, and Papelbon in tow.

Prediction: Sox in 4, maybe 3. The Angels just don't have enough.

The Boston Red Sox: The Clear World Series Favorites

Well, it looks like my preseason pick of the Cleveland Indians did not work out for the series although I still maintain that without a barrage of injuries it would have. Anyways it's time to reassess heading into the last week of the season.

In the NL you have the Cubs... And well, the Cubs. If the Marlins manage to get in, they will be dangerous, but they're five games back with less than 10 to play so it looks bad for them. Any of the other teams, while they may make an improbable run to the series, will be severely over matched by any of the AL teams excluding whoever wins Comedy Central.

That leaves the Sox, Rays, and Angels as contenders. Everyone loves the Angels, but I tend to disagree. TLAAOA have a good record in a terrible division, a guy who just set a record for the most of the stupidest statistical category there is in one season, and a manager everyone loves. What they don't have is a dominating team. The have scored only 704 runs, 10th in the AL in: awful, and they have allowed 639, 4th in the AL: decent but not great. Their run differential is 7th in the AL and worse than 4 of the teams in the AL East. The lineup consists of 2.5 good hitters, a few mediocre and the rest bad. The bench is bad. The bullpen is excellent, but will pitch at most 3-4 innings per game. They have one legit ace, 2 more solid starters, and 2 about average starters. They are a team built to succeed over a long season because they have good pitching for every day. They are not built to win in October which takes great hitting and even greater pitching. To top it off, this is nowhere near the best Angels team in the past 5 years, and none of them have done much in October, so why should this bunch?

The Rays are very young, but very talented. They possess a pitching staff about as good as TLAAOA, but a much better lineup. While they lack the up front star power of Guerrero and Teixeira, they have 8 guys who can all beat you starting with soon to be superstar Evan Longoria. Trust me, this is David Wright of the AL. The only legit out in the lineup is Bartlett and he's at least as good as Aybar, Matthews, and Mathis. The Rays will likely fall victim to the "No stars" or the "No experience" paradox. Both have been overcome with young talent by the '03 Marlins and the '02 Angels, but usually you need one or the other.

Which brings me to the team of the '00s, the Boston Red Sox. They look ready to go for their 3rd title in 5 years as they have all the pieces to the puzzle. A solid lineup with plenty of playoff experience, a solid bench, the best closer in baseball other than Rivera and maybe Nathan, and a 3 man rotation of Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka. The keys are David Ortiz and even more importantly Josh Beckett.

As Curt Schilling, the best big game pitcher of his generation put it, "Beckett is the best big game pitcher in the game today." He certainly has a great track record: 2 postseasons, 2 world series rings, 2 postseason MVP awards. Beckett's career postseason numbers are some of the best ever: 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 10.2 K/9. Even in his two losses, he has yet to have a bad postseason outing. By comparison, his numbers are better than John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Jack Morris, Sandy Koufax, and are even close to playoff superstar Mariano Rivera.

Ortiz is also excellent his career postseason line is .317/.418/.587, and if you throw out the time before he got to Boston, it's an even more impressive .325/.443/.613, among the best of all time for those with over 150 PAs.

Anything can happen in a short series, but Boston has got to be the odds on favorite to repeat as champs.

Playing the game the right way?

Maybe its just because I've read more baseball articles this year than ever before, but it seems like the compliment "(they/he/she) plays the game the right way" is being over used at an all time high. I was sent over the top by reading Andre Dawson's baseball reference page last night where the sponsor basically claims that Andre should be in the Hall because he played the game the right way.

The comment is used to explain the unlikely season of the Twins and Angels all the time as well as to compliment inferior players like David Eckstein who are 'scrappy' or 'play with heart'.

Teams whose success is often explained because they "play the game the right way: Twins, Angels, Rays, and sometimes White Sox.

Real reasons these teams are successful: Pitching. They rank 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 7th in the AL in runs allowed. They also rank 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th in the AL in run differential. In case you were wondering, the Angels are 6th. The Angels are touted as the playoff favorites and they have a worse team than the one that got crushed by Josh Beckett and co. in the ALDS last year.

Examples given on how these teams play the right way:

1. They are aggressive on the bases.
Translation, they run into outs. Tampa and TLAAOA are 1-2 in the AL in stolen bases, but Boston is 3rd and Boston steals with a much higher success rate.

2. They bunt and play small ball.
Translation, they waste outs. TLAAOA are 9th in the AL in R/G, and they are 11th in OBP. They somehow have score more runs than the less out-liberal Rays and the powerless Jays who are both better teams.

Notice, you never hear of pitchers playing the game the right way. That's because it's easier for people who don't know how to read statistics to explain pitchers success: the best pitchers usually have the best ERAs and the best W-L records, although there are exceptions in both cases.

You know what? You can have a team of David Eckstiens and Darrin Erstads, and I'll take a whole buch of guys who play the game the wrong way:
Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, JD Drew, Jhonny Peralta, Milton Bradley, ARod, Dan Uggla, etc.