2008 MLB picks
AL
East
1. Boston
I'm taking Boston to win this division because they are a complete team. They have as good an offense as anyone in baseball with the only real hole being Lugo at short. I expect Drew and Ramirez to improve on last year's totals and Elsbury to top the production they got out of center. Pedroia and especially Lowell should regress, but the line up should still top 900 runs. The pitching is a little more of a problem with questions on the health of Schilling and Beckett. Still Dice-K, Bucholtz, Lester, and Wakefield should be good enough to hold down the fort until those two return. I don't expect Beckett to be out long. The bullpen is solid with Paplebon shutting the door and Okie setting him up.
2. New York
The Yankees should be second in the division and could even win if the starting pitching works out. They are my wild card based on their lineup which is still the best in baseball. Look for monster years from Abreu and ARod with solid years from Matsui, Cabrera and Jeter. Giambi, Cano, Posada, Damon and whoever plays first could be spectacular, above average, or busts, but they will find at least major league average production to fill in. The bullpen should be great with Joba and Rivera, but the starting rotation is the problem. How will Hughes and Kennedy fair in their first season? How will Pettitte respond from an offseason filled with allegations? Will Mussina bounce back put together a solid season? Wang is the closest thing to a sure thing here, but anyone who watched the playoffs last year saw a sinkerballer throwing a ball that didn't sink. Still the offense is overpowering and will hammer the vast assortment of mediocre pitching in the AL.
3. Tampa Bay
Sooner or later all those #1 picks are going to pan out and I think it's this year. Pena, Crawford, Upton, and Longoria will be an amazing lineup and if they can get Balldelli to stay in one piece, it's even better. The pitching is turning around too with Kazmir, Shields, and Garza with even more waiting in the minors. It's probably a stretch for this team to contend this year, but Boston and New York better watch out in '09 and '10.
4. Toronto
It really sucks to be the Jays. This division is just too good and they rely on too many injury prone players. Burnett seems poised for a big year with another contract looming, but he's an arm injury waiting to happen. Halladay is a top 5 AL hurler when healthy, but his arm has a lot of mileage on it. McGowan may end up being the team's most dependable starter as he could throw 215+ innings with around 200 ks. I don't like the bullpen as it will live and die with Ryan, and as far as the offense goes: I like Rios and I like Hill and the rest of it is a mess. Thomas is like 40, Wells sucked last year, and they are starting Rolen, Stairs, and Eckstein for christsake!
5. Baltimore
As much as it sucks to be the Jays, it is 100 times worse in Maryland. Angelos has run this team into the ground over the last decade, but there may finally be a glimmer of hope in Adam Jones. This team may lose a hundred games for the next two years, but if they trade Roberts and Mora now and build around Markakis, Jones, and Guthrie, don't blow anymore money on free agents, and pray that Cabrera or Loewen or both learns to throw strikes, they may one day climb out of the cellar. I don't know if I will ever see this team make the playoffs again in my lifetime.
Central
1. Cleveland
The only team with a balance that rivals Boston. CC and Carmona must stay healthy and productive the whole year and carry that into the playoffs. Hafner should bounce back, Sizemore is a budding superstar, Martinez is terrific. Cabrera should be an upgrade at second, Peralta is above average for a shortstop, and Garko is a decent hitter. They need to get good production from the rest of the line up: Gutierrez, Blake, Michaels, Choo, Dellucci, and Marte. The bullpen is lights out and if Borowski struggles again, he'll get yanked in favor of one of the Raffys.
2. Detroit
I keep hearing how this team may score 1000 runs. There is not snowball's chance in hell of this. I would bet the cost of my education on it. When Cleveland did it in '99, they had 3 of the best hitters in baseball: Alomar, Ramirez and Thome, each of whom posted an MVP caliber season, with Lofton and Vizquel getting on base and scoring runs like crazy. The Tigers have Miguel Cabrera who is the second coming of Manny, but they don't have the rest of the tools. Maggs, Polonco and Granderson will regress at least a little from last year. Renteria is not that much of an upgrade defensively over Guillen or offensively over Casey. Pudge is a flat out bad hitter at this stage in his career, with his only real contribution behind the plate. Sheff is still a force, but he'll likely make at least one trip to the DL. And here's the other thing: They're all right handed! As far as the pitching goes, I like Verlander, Bonderman should bounce back, and Rogers will be solid when healthy. I don't like the idea of Willis and Robertson combining for 65 starts as they will get hammered by good right handed hitting. The bullpen is among the worst in the league.
3. Chicago
Kenny Williams thinks his team can win the division... And he's the only one. Vazquez and Buerhle are still good, but the rest of the pitching is bad. The hitters are all old and over the hill and they run into a lot of outs with a crazy man managing the team. That being said, they are still better than Minnesota and KC.
4. Minnesota
On paper KC is a little better, but I think the Twinkies will pull it out. Liriano may comeback strong, and they still have Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer. This team is smart and will be back.
5. KC
There is at least a glimmer of hope here. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler may breakout and out perform Maur/Morneau, and Konerko/Thome/Dye. The pitching is ok, but it is still a year or two away from flirting with .500.
West
1. Angels
Not by choice, but by lack of options, I'll take the Halos who just have too much talent to not win the worst division in baseball. Escobar may miss the season, Lackey may be out until May, but since they refused to trade anyone, they still have a stockpile: Weaver, Garland, Saunders, Santana, and top prospect Adenhart. They are finally going to let some of the young guys play on offense with Aybar and Kendrick at short and second. What they need to go is get rid of Anderson and Matthews and play Rivera and Willits. They will score more runs than Seattle, and the pitching is close enough.
2. Seattle
I hate this team - hate it hate it hate it. A whole culmination of bad moves and it almost worked last year. Their playoff hopes rest on the arms of Bedard and Hernandez which might be able to carry the load, but look at the rest of the team! The other 3 starters are bad, and the lineup is awful. They have free agent busts at the corners, no power at DH, and black holes at the middle of the infield. I really think Oakland might beat this team.
3. Oakland
Ok, so they have almost no experience, but they have a young team built by Billy Beane, and it never takes that long for them to be good again. Question marks abound, but you have to like the potential. Blanton is still good, and Harden is an ace if he could ever stay healthy. Barton, Cust, Buck, Sweeney all excite me and there is more in the minors. This team will not be a buyer even if they are a contender at the break. They will not hesitate to sell Crosby, Harden, Blanton, or Chavez should any of them tear it up out of the gate. But they will be very, very good in a year or two.
4. Texas
Ah yes, another team with no plan. Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley are going to have to carry this team because we all know the pitching won't. Young can hit, but he might be the worst shortstop in baseball. I don't think Blalock is ever going to be the hitter he was touted to be when he first came up. They need to sell now and get some pitching if they ever want to contend again.
NL
East
1. Atlanta
I don't think there is a team whose season hinges on one player more than the Braves. Everything depends on Chipper. He is the best hitter in the NL not named Pujols and can carry a team when healthy. Throw in McCann, Teixeira, the underrated Kelly Johnson, and breakout candidates Escobar and Francoeur and you've got the offense to go with Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, Jurjjens, Hampton and friends.
2. New York
A very good team, just not at the level of Atlanta which is why I have them winning the wild card. Wright and Beltran are good, but I don't think they can carry them. Reyes is a great leadoff hitter, but runs too much and doesn't have the power to bat lower in the order. I don't like Pagan or Schneider as a hitter, and Castillo is too old. The X-factor is Delgado. If he posts close to a .900 OPS, they have a chance to compete with the Braves offensively. As far as the pitching goes, Santana is the only sure thing. Pedro will be good if he can take the ball 30 times. Maine had some stamina problems down the stretch, Perez has been erratic throughout his career and El Duque might be closing in on 50. We'll see.
3. Phillies
I like Hamels, Howard, and Utley a lot Rollins, Burrell, and Myers are also good, but the rest of the team is not. They're going to start Pedro Feliz! Moyer is like 50, Eaton has never been good and I don't think Victorino can replace Rowand's production at the plate or in the field. The bullpen is also full of question marks.
4. Miami ...er I mean Florida
It's a toss up for the cellar with the Fish and the Nats, but I've got to take the team that boasts a top 5 NL player in Ramirez, to go with Hermida, Willingham, and Uggla. They also have a shit ton of young, talented players from stockpiling for the past 5 years. Some of that has to pay off... Right?
5. Washington
I like the manager. I like the new park. I like Johnson, Zimmerman, and Cordero. I like the talent of Dukes and Milleage. I kind of like Kearns. I don't like any of the starters. I don't like the rest of the hitters. I don't like this team's chances of falling out of last.
Central
1. Chicago
Not a choice but a lack of good options. I expect monster years from Lee and Zambrano, and it seems like they may finally move Soriano down in the order. The pitching should be good enough for this mediocre division, but I don't expect a deep playoff run.
2. Milwaukee
The Brew crew has a chance to steal the division, and that chance lives and dies with Ben Sheets's right arm. Come to thing of it, Sheets may actually be more important than Chipper. He'll need to at least match Zambrano's production because the Brewers rotation depth and bullpen just aren't there. The offenses should be close between the two clubs, but Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, and Soto should top Fielder, Braun, Hart and Hall. And the Brewers are awful defensively.
3. Houston
Do I really have to pick one? They're all bad. Houston at least has some veterans who are still productive: Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, and probably Tejada and Biggio's finally gone - thank god. Still years of bad front office moves have put this team on a down trend that isn't likely to turn around. Trade Oswalt and Berkman while you can still get the farm and you might have a chance at contending in 2-3 years. They won't, and they might make a playoff push if everything goes right, but like the US economy, it's just going to prolong the rebuilding process.
4. Cardinals
Poor Albert Pujols. Just two years removed from a World Series title, this team has fallen to pieces. Granted they were being held together by duct tape and saran wrap during the title run (Jeff Weaver winning the clincher anyone?). Like the Astros, this team could make a playoff push if all goes well, and by that I mean that Carpenter, Mulder, and Clement all come back healthy and productive fast. Unlike the Astros, there is some hope for the future. Wainwright has grown into a solid starter, Ankiel has been a pleasant surprise, they still have Albert to build around and they have a front office that can spend money the smart way.
5. Cincinnati
For a team that seemed to be building a good nucleus they went out and did the dumbest thing they could have in the offseason: they hired Dusty Baker. They probably should have signed Mark Prior and asked him why hiring Baker is a bad move. Baker will run Adam Dunn and Scott Hatteberg out of town. He may destroy the careers of Cueto, Volquez, and Baily, and he may talk Votto into swinging too much as to avoid clogging the bases. One player he will like is Phillips who will be doing a lot of swinging and running with his new manager. Sorry Reds fans, but it looks like you're going the wrong way.
6. Pittsburgh
The Pirates have quietly assembled a nice assortment of young talent and may one day find their way to the .500 mark. That day is not today. They have way too many holes in their lineup and only two pitchers ready to be better than major league average. They need to trade Bay, probably to Cleveland, and get 2 or 3 good young players that can help next year or the following year and maybe, just maybe, they can jump to 2nd or 3rd in the division.
West
1. Arizona
I'm taking the defending champs in the most interesting division in baseball with 4 legit playoff contenders. The DBacks have assembled the best stockpile of young hitting talent in quite some time: possibly since the mid '90 Indians. Supplement it with pitching that has already arrived and you are looking at a possible dynasty. I love the potential here: Upton, Young, Drew, Jackson, and Reynolds all could hit 20+ homers. Upton is the real prize with potential Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols hitting talent. Owings is also an amazing hitter and may DH in interleague games. As for pitching, Webb, Haren, Davis, and Owings should be good enough, but they have a wild card in the ageless Randy Johnson, who in 10 starts last year was very good. The bullpen's not great, but it should be good enough.
2. Colorado
Many people think the Rocks will hit the ground running after last season's world series appearance, and while they should be good, I don't see more than 90 wins. Holliday and Hawpe will almost certainly regress a bit and the pitching is just not deep enough to compensate.
3. Padres
The offense is horrible, but they have the best pitching in the NL. The best pitcher in Peavy, one of the top 10 in Young and one of the top 10 ever in Maddux who should thrive with a full season in Petco. Imagine the possibilities if Prior somehow comes back. The bullpen is also super, and while the offense has more than a few holes, they also have breakout candidates Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez.
4. LA Dodgers
They look great on paper. They always look great on paper. They were barely a .500 team last year and the only thing they have done to get better is to add Andruw Jones. If they let Loney, LaRoche, Either, and Kemp play, they have a chance to win the division. They won't. Way too many at bats will go to Juan Pierre and Nomar. Jones is on the downside, strikes out way too much and does not walk enough. Dr. Jeff Kent has to lose it sooner or later and everyone on the rotation save Billingsly is starting to get old. Something always goes wrong in Dodgertown and it's usually self inflicted. Now, I could be wrong and they could win the division, but I doubt it.
5. San Fransisco
There really really is no plan here. For a team with two budding aces to be stuck in the cellar means that the management must be total idiots. They might actually get shut out every game. Shit, their best hitter is probably Aaron Rowand. The only way this team does anything is if they bring back Baroid and ride Lincecum, Cain, and Zito for almost 700 combined innings. Neither of those is a good idea. They need to get rid of everyone other than those 3 pitchers, and possibly Lowry and start building an offense that can support their pitching. Or they can do what they will do which is attempt to buy an offense that can support it. Hear that Hanley Ramirez?
Playoffs:
AL
Indians over Red Sox
NL
DBacks over Braves
WS
Indians over DBacks
Long range prediction/wish: When CC Sabathia celebrates his second Cy Young/first world series with a ticker tape parade in downtown Cleveland, he'll realize that he doesn't need $200 million dollars from the Yankees and will stay with the team he's been with since day one.
East
1. Boston
I'm taking Boston to win this division because they are a complete team. They have as good an offense as anyone in baseball with the only real hole being Lugo at short. I expect Drew and Ramirez to improve on last year's totals and Elsbury to top the production they got out of center. Pedroia and especially Lowell should regress, but the line up should still top 900 runs. The pitching is a little more of a problem with questions on the health of Schilling and Beckett. Still Dice-K, Bucholtz, Lester, and Wakefield should be good enough to hold down the fort until those two return. I don't expect Beckett to be out long. The bullpen is solid with Paplebon shutting the door and Okie setting him up.
2. New York
The Yankees should be second in the division and could even win if the starting pitching works out. They are my wild card based on their lineup which is still the best in baseball. Look for monster years from Abreu and ARod with solid years from Matsui, Cabrera and Jeter. Giambi, Cano, Posada, Damon and whoever plays first could be spectacular, above average, or busts, but they will find at least major league average production to fill in. The bullpen should be great with Joba and Rivera, but the starting rotation is the problem. How will Hughes and Kennedy fair in their first season? How will Pettitte respond from an offseason filled with allegations? Will Mussina bounce back put together a solid season? Wang is the closest thing to a sure thing here, but anyone who watched the playoffs last year saw a sinkerballer throwing a ball that didn't sink. Still the offense is overpowering and will hammer the vast assortment of mediocre pitching in the AL.
3. Tampa Bay
Sooner or later all those #1 picks are going to pan out and I think it's this year. Pena, Crawford, Upton, and Longoria will be an amazing lineup and if they can get Balldelli to stay in one piece, it's even better. The pitching is turning around too with Kazmir, Shields, and Garza with even more waiting in the minors. It's probably a stretch for this team to contend this year, but Boston and New York better watch out in '09 and '10.
4. Toronto
It really sucks to be the Jays. This division is just too good and they rely on too many injury prone players. Burnett seems poised for a big year with another contract looming, but he's an arm injury waiting to happen. Halladay is a top 5 AL hurler when healthy, but his arm has a lot of mileage on it. McGowan may end up being the team's most dependable starter as he could throw 215+ innings with around 200 ks. I don't like the bullpen as it will live and die with Ryan, and as far as the offense goes: I like Rios and I like Hill and the rest of it is a mess. Thomas is like 40, Wells sucked last year, and they are starting Rolen, Stairs, and Eckstein for christsake!
5. Baltimore
As much as it sucks to be the Jays, it is 100 times worse in Maryland. Angelos has run this team into the ground over the last decade, but there may finally be a glimmer of hope in Adam Jones. This team may lose a hundred games for the next two years, but if they trade Roberts and Mora now and build around Markakis, Jones, and Guthrie, don't blow anymore money on free agents, and pray that Cabrera or Loewen or both learns to throw strikes, they may one day climb out of the cellar. I don't know if I will ever see this team make the playoffs again in my lifetime.
Central
1. Cleveland
The only team with a balance that rivals Boston. CC and Carmona must stay healthy and productive the whole year and carry that into the playoffs. Hafner should bounce back, Sizemore is a budding superstar, Martinez is terrific. Cabrera should be an upgrade at second, Peralta is above average for a shortstop, and Garko is a decent hitter. They need to get good production from the rest of the line up: Gutierrez, Blake, Michaels, Choo, Dellucci, and Marte. The bullpen is lights out and if Borowski struggles again, he'll get yanked in favor of one of the Raffys.
2. Detroit
I keep hearing how this team may score 1000 runs. There is not snowball's chance in hell of this. I would bet the cost of my education on it. When Cleveland did it in '99, they had 3 of the best hitters in baseball: Alomar, Ramirez and Thome, each of whom posted an MVP caliber season, with Lofton and Vizquel getting on base and scoring runs like crazy. The Tigers have Miguel Cabrera who is the second coming of Manny, but they don't have the rest of the tools. Maggs, Polonco and Granderson will regress at least a little from last year. Renteria is not that much of an upgrade defensively over Guillen or offensively over Casey. Pudge is a flat out bad hitter at this stage in his career, with his only real contribution behind the plate. Sheff is still a force, but he'll likely make at least one trip to the DL. And here's the other thing: They're all right handed! As far as the pitching goes, I like Verlander, Bonderman should bounce back, and Rogers will be solid when healthy. I don't like the idea of Willis and Robertson combining for 65 starts as they will get hammered by good right handed hitting. The bullpen is among the worst in the league.
3. Chicago
Kenny Williams thinks his team can win the division... And he's the only one. Vazquez and Buerhle are still good, but the rest of the pitching is bad. The hitters are all old and over the hill and they run into a lot of outs with a crazy man managing the team. That being said, they are still better than Minnesota and KC.
4. Minnesota
On paper KC is a little better, but I think the Twinkies will pull it out. Liriano may comeback strong, and they still have Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer. This team is smart and will be back.
5. KC
There is at least a glimmer of hope here. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler may breakout and out perform Maur/Morneau, and Konerko/Thome/Dye. The pitching is ok, but it is still a year or two away from flirting with .500.
West
1. Angels
Not by choice, but by lack of options, I'll take the Halos who just have too much talent to not win the worst division in baseball. Escobar may miss the season, Lackey may be out until May, but since they refused to trade anyone, they still have a stockpile: Weaver, Garland, Saunders, Santana, and top prospect Adenhart. They are finally going to let some of the young guys play on offense with Aybar and Kendrick at short and second. What they need to go is get rid of Anderson and Matthews and play Rivera and Willits. They will score more runs than Seattle, and the pitching is close enough.
2. Seattle
I hate this team - hate it hate it hate it. A whole culmination of bad moves and it almost worked last year. Their playoff hopes rest on the arms of Bedard and Hernandez which might be able to carry the load, but look at the rest of the team! The other 3 starters are bad, and the lineup is awful. They have free agent busts at the corners, no power at DH, and black holes at the middle of the infield. I really think Oakland might beat this team.
3. Oakland
Ok, so they have almost no experience, but they have a young team built by Billy Beane, and it never takes that long for them to be good again. Question marks abound, but you have to like the potential. Blanton is still good, and Harden is an ace if he could ever stay healthy. Barton, Cust, Buck, Sweeney all excite me and there is more in the minors. This team will not be a buyer even if they are a contender at the break. They will not hesitate to sell Crosby, Harden, Blanton, or Chavez should any of them tear it up out of the gate. But they will be very, very good in a year or two.
4. Texas
Ah yes, another team with no plan. Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley are going to have to carry this team because we all know the pitching won't. Young can hit, but he might be the worst shortstop in baseball. I don't think Blalock is ever going to be the hitter he was touted to be when he first came up. They need to sell now and get some pitching if they ever want to contend again.
NL
East
1. Atlanta
I don't think there is a team whose season hinges on one player more than the Braves. Everything depends on Chipper. He is the best hitter in the NL not named Pujols and can carry a team when healthy. Throw in McCann, Teixeira, the underrated Kelly Johnson, and breakout candidates Escobar and Francoeur and you've got the offense to go with Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, Jurjjens, Hampton and friends.
2. New York
A very good team, just not at the level of Atlanta which is why I have them winning the wild card. Wright and Beltran are good, but I don't think they can carry them. Reyes is a great leadoff hitter, but runs too much and doesn't have the power to bat lower in the order. I don't like Pagan or Schneider as a hitter, and Castillo is too old. The X-factor is Delgado. If he posts close to a .900 OPS, they have a chance to compete with the Braves offensively. As far as the pitching goes, Santana is the only sure thing. Pedro will be good if he can take the ball 30 times. Maine had some stamina problems down the stretch, Perez has been erratic throughout his career and El Duque might be closing in on 50. We'll see.
3. Phillies
I like Hamels, Howard, and Utley a lot Rollins, Burrell, and Myers are also good, but the rest of the team is not. They're going to start Pedro Feliz! Moyer is like 50, Eaton has never been good and I don't think Victorino can replace Rowand's production at the plate or in the field. The bullpen is also full of question marks.
4. Miami ...er I mean Florida
It's a toss up for the cellar with the Fish and the Nats, but I've got to take the team that boasts a top 5 NL player in Ramirez, to go with Hermida, Willingham, and Uggla. They also have a shit ton of young, talented players from stockpiling for the past 5 years. Some of that has to pay off... Right?
5. Washington
I like the manager. I like the new park. I like Johnson, Zimmerman, and Cordero. I like the talent of Dukes and Milleage. I kind of like Kearns. I don't like any of the starters. I don't like the rest of the hitters. I don't like this team's chances of falling out of last.
Central
1. Chicago
Not a choice but a lack of good options. I expect monster years from Lee and Zambrano, and it seems like they may finally move Soriano down in the order. The pitching should be good enough for this mediocre division, but I don't expect a deep playoff run.
2. Milwaukee
The Brew crew has a chance to steal the division, and that chance lives and dies with Ben Sheets's right arm. Come to thing of it, Sheets may actually be more important than Chipper. He'll need to at least match Zambrano's production because the Brewers rotation depth and bullpen just aren't there. The offenses should be close between the two clubs, but Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, and Soto should top Fielder, Braun, Hart and Hall. And the Brewers are awful defensively.
3. Houston
Do I really have to pick one? They're all bad. Houston at least has some veterans who are still productive: Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, and probably Tejada and Biggio's finally gone - thank god. Still years of bad front office moves have put this team on a down trend that isn't likely to turn around. Trade Oswalt and Berkman while you can still get the farm and you might have a chance at contending in 2-3 years. They won't, and they might make a playoff push if everything goes right, but like the US economy, it's just going to prolong the rebuilding process.
4. Cardinals
Poor Albert Pujols. Just two years removed from a World Series title, this team has fallen to pieces. Granted they were being held together by duct tape and saran wrap during the title run (Jeff Weaver winning the clincher anyone?). Like the Astros, this team could make a playoff push if all goes well, and by that I mean that Carpenter, Mulder, and Clement all come back healthy and productive fast. Unlike the Astros, there is some hope for the future. Wainwright has grown into a solid starter, Ankiel has been a pleasant surprise, they still have Albert to build around and they have a front office that can spend money the smart way.
5. Cincinnati
For a team that seemed to be building a good nucleus they went out and did the dumbest thing they could have in the offseason: they hired Dusty Baker. They probably should have signed Mark Prior and asked him why hiring Baker is a bad move. Baker will run Adam Dunn and Scott Hatteberg out of town. He may destroy the careers of Cueto, Volquez, and Baily, and he may talk Votto into swinging too much as to avoid clogging the bases. One player he will like is Phillips who will be doing a lot of swinging and running with his new manager. Sorry Reds fans, but it looks like you're going the wrong way.
6. Pittsburgh
The Pirates have quietly assembled a nice assortment of young talent and may one day find their way to the .500 mark. That day is not today. They have way too many holes in their lineup and only two pitchers ready to be better than major league average. They need to trade Bay, probably to Cleveland, and get 2 or 3 good young players that can help next year or the following year and maybe, just maybe, they can jump to 2nd or 3rd in the division.
West
1. Arizona
I'm taking the defending champs in the most interesting division in baseball with 4 legit playoff contenders. The DBacks have assembled the best stockpile of young hitting talent in quite some time: possibly since the mid '90 Indians. Supplement it with pitching that has already arrived and you are looking at a possible dynasty. I love the potential here: Upton, Young, Drew, Jackson, and Reynolds all could hit 20+ homers. Upton is the real prize with potential Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols hitting talent. Owings is also an amazing hitter and may DH in interleague games. As for pitching, Webb, Haren, Davis, and Owings should be good enough, but they have a wild card in the ageless Randy Johnson, who in 10 starts last year was very good. The bullpen's not great, but it should be good enough.
2. Colorado
Many people think the Rocks will hit the ground running after last season's world series appearance, and while they should be good, I don't see more than 90 wins. Holliday and Hawpe will almost certainly regress a bit and the pitching is just not deep enough to compensate.
3. Padres
The offense is horrible, but they have the best pitching in the NL. The best pitcher in Peavy, one of the top 10 in Young and one of the top 10 ever in Maddux who should thrive with a full season in Petco. Imagine the possibilities if Prior somehow comes back. The bullpen is also super, and while the offense has more than a few holes, they also have breakout candidates Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez.
4. LA Dodgers
They look great on paper. They always look great on paper. They were barely a .500 team last year and the only thing they have done to get better is to add Andruw Jones. If they let Loney, LaRoche, Either, and Kemp play, they have a chance to win the division. They won't. Way too many at bats will go to Juan Pierre and Nomar. Jones is on the downside, strikes out way too much and does not walk enough. Dr. Jeff Kent has to lose it sooner or later and everyone on the rotation save Billingsly is starting to get old. Something always goes wrong in Dodgertown and it's usually self inflicted. Now, I could be wrong and they could win the division, but I doubt it.
5. San Fransisco
There really really is no plan here. For a team with two budding aces to be stuck in the cellar means that the management must be total idiots. They might actually get shut out every game. Shit, their best hitter is probably Aaron Rowand. The only way this team does anything is if they bring back Baroid and ride Lincecum, Cain, and Zito for almost 700 combined innings. Neither of those is a good idea. They need to get rid of everyone other than those 3 pitchers, and possibly Lowry and start building an offense that can support their pitching. Or they can do what they will do which is attempt to buy an offense that can support it. Hear that Hanley Ramirez?
Playoffs:
AL
Indians over Red Sox
NL
DBacks over Braves
WS
Indians over DBacks
Long range prediction/wish: When CC Sabathia celebrates his second Cy Young/first world series with a ticker tape parade in downtown Cleveland, he'll realize that he doesn't need $200 million dollars from the Yankees and will stay with the team he's been with since day one.
posted by Andrew Manning at
8:19 PM
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