2009 MLB Predictions
Here they are: my 2009 predictions. Last year I did just about as well as anyone else, only really missing badly on the AL Central (who didn't), nailing the NL Central perfectly and hitting one out of the park by picking the Rays higher than anyone else I saw and dubbing them my sleeper team, much like I did with the A's a decade earlier. But enough about the past, lets talk about the future.
AL East:
The toughest division in baseball by far, has 5 teams who could potentially play .500 ball in the NL, and 3 that would likely be the favorites in any other division. One of them is going golfing in October, and I think I got a pretty good idea who.
1. Red Sox (95-67)
This team is stacked with talent, much of it injury prone, but so full of depth that they should be able to absorb just about any injury, smile at you and keep on coming. Beckett anchors the best staff in the league that with solid contributions from Smoltz and/or Penny could be the best of the decade. MVP Pedroia and rising star Kevin Youkilis anchor probably the best 1-9 lineup in the AL. I don't see any way this team doesn't win the division.
2. Rays (92-70)
As loaded as the Sox are with present day talent, the Rays are probably more loaded with future day talent. Soon to be superstars Longoria and Upton lead a powerful lineup and what should be the best defensive team in the league. The pitching is solid anchored by Shields, Kazmir, and Garza who have the potential to be the best 1-2-3 in the game. Ace prospect David Price will be up by May and could finish the year as the team's top pitcher. I'm not entirely sold on the bullpen repeating their years, but the Rays ooze talent that could be packaged for a Huston Street type if need be.
3. Yankees (89-73)
A new stadium, $400 mil worth of new players and a take no prisoners attitude is what the Yankees come into the season with after missing the playoffs last year. Guess what? None of that makes them good enough to hang with the Rays and Sox. Sorry, CC is good, he is not Milwaukee good. He pitched well against awful teams, and merely ok against good ones with his toughest outings coming against the Cubs. The AL has better hitters and it will show. Good luck getting a full year out of any of Burnett, Wang, or Joba. But the thing that will really kill this team is age and lack of depth. Tex is the only good player on the right side of 30. The defense sucks and their best player will miss at least 1/4 of the season, potentially more, and his effectiveness after the injury remains to be seen.
4. Toronto (79-83)
Roy Halladay vs. the AL is what last year's top rotation has been reduced to. No Burnett, no McGowan, no Marcum. The offense should bounce back a bit, but that's a lot to lose and still contend in this division. The cupboard is pretty bare, and it may be a good time to sell high on ol' Doc.
5. Baltimore (76-86)
Baltimore is sort of like the rebel alliance at the beginning of Star Wars. They were once powerful and have fallen on hard times for the last decade or so. Luke Skywalker in this analogy is of course Matt Wieters who is the most highly touted prospect since Alex Rodriguez and figures to be the top catcher in baseball by this time next year. They also have hope in Markakis, Jones, and pitching prospects, but those will not arrive this year, and this team will get hammered on the scoreboard worse than anyone this side of Arlington.
AL Central:
I have seen every team except KC picked to win this division and I just don't see anyone besides Cleveland or Minnie doing it. The white sox just can not sustain their catch lightning a in a bottle strategy forever, can they?
1. Cleveland (89-73)
Ok, the pitching is a bit of a question mark, but they have the reigning Cy Young winner, and the guy who finished 4th the previous year, as well as a guy who won 18 games a few years ago, a guy who dominated in the world series 3 years ago, and lots of AAA stars in the fold. I think it'll be ok, not great, but ok. Where Cleveland will make it up is on offense. Grady Sizemore is the best all around player in the AL and in the top 5 in baseball, he will get help from a certain bounce back from Victor Martinez, the underrated Johnny Peralta, and rising star Choo, all of whom rank in the top 3-4 players at their position in the AL. Newly acquired Mark Derosa, should provide an upgrade at 3rd and bounce backs are likely from Garko and Cabrera, both of whom had great second halves last year. Francisco in left is rather weak, and Hafner at DH cannot be relied upon, so anything out of either one is a bonus, but the risk is low and the reward is high. Cleveland could win as many as 100 games or as little as 80 depending on the big L-U-C-K, but they return all of what was the best team in baseball down the stretch last year, and have added a solid closer and third baseman, so I like their chances.
2. Twins (83-79)
Just about everything went right for this team last year, and they still could not win the division. They have a very solid young pitching staff and a decent lineup when M&M are in it. They will be in a lot of trouble in Mauer isn't back quickly and it could sink them in the standings.
3. Tigers (79-83)
Thank god I did not have to hear about how great the Tigers' lineup is all winter like I did last year. It has become the Miguel Cabrera show. Granderson is the second best CF in the AL, and a very underrated player. Ordonez will be solid, but don't expect him to ever come close to 2007 again. Polonco and Guillen are also good, but both are a year older and will also not be coming close to their numbers from 2-3 years ago. There are serious holes at catcher, third, and short which will be like having 3 AAA guys at the bottom of the lineup. They at least can play the field well. The pitching is downright awful after Verlander. I don't see how they can possibly win the division, nor how anyone can think they will.
Kansas City (75-87)
No, getting Mike Jacobs and Kyle Farnsworth was not a good offseason. Not at all. Actually one of the worst in all of baseball. However, I expect Gordon to finally breakout this year along with steps forward from Butler and Avelies with solid pitching from Grienke and Meche and of course Soria (who should probably be starting). Not enough to contend, but enough to be pesky.
White Sox (74-88)
The good news for White Sox fans: I'm almost always wrong about this team. The bad news: you're not any good. Okay, if you get really lucky again, you may be good. But the only guys you are counting on in their primes are Quentin, Danks, Buerhle and Floyd. Everyone else is either too young or over the hill. Thome, Konerko and Dye may have one last hurrah, or they may fall of a cliff. They are counting on Getz, Fields, and Wise who have about as much major league experience as the Cubs have championships in the last century. I am not an AJ fan, and I do not think Alexi Ramirez is the next big thing, rather that he is as likely to be a one year wonder as he is to turn into a star. This team is like swiss cheese in that they have good parts, but are chock full of holes.
AL West
The AL West is really hard to figure. Oakland is loaded with young talent, but almost no experienced pitching, TLAAOA have less talent, but more experience, the others will likely fall out of the picture quickly.
1. Oakland 85-77
Giambi, Holliday, and Cust form a solid middle of the order. Cabrera and Ellis are perhaps the best defensive keystone combo in the AL, and in Sweeney, Buck, Chavez, Barton, and Nomar, there is potential for a very solid lineup. Talented youngsters Braden, Eveland, Gallagher, and Anderson could form a well above average rotation for the next 5 or so years. Then again, they might not. Devine and Ziegler will also form a good 1-2 punch in the pen.
2. TLAAOA 84-78
How is a team that won 100 games a year ago going to struggle to win 85 this year? Simple, they were amazingly lucky a year ago. Plus they have lost KRod and Tex and start the season with 3 of their best pitchers on the DL. The thing that will hurt the most is how stupid they are offensively. They refuse to join the 21st century of playing smart ball based on taking walks, hitting for power, and not running into outs. Now, Abreu and Napoli both play that way, but no one else in the lineup, even Vladdy does. The lineup isn't great, the starting rotation looks thin and the defense is bad. Its going to be the bullpen's job to save the day until Lackey and Santana return, but even that may not be enough.
3. Seattle 78-84
Seemed to finally abandon the Bavasi strategy of shooting themselves in the foot every year, but there is still a long way to go. It's probably a good idea to sell Beltre and possibly right now rather than try to contend this year. Because if they get lucky and stay in the race, it will set them back 2-3 years, especially if they try to get that last missing piece.
4. Texas 72-90
Good lineup. No pitching... yet. Help is on the way, but it will be a year or two until it is ready. Kinsler is one of the best players in the AL when healthy, and though slightly overrated, so is Hamilton. Though the pitching can't be as bad as a year ago, the loss of Milton Bradley will cancel out any gains that might have been made. A true telling sign of just how stupid gold gloves are: returning "Gold Glove" ss, Michael Young, has been moved to 3b. At least they aren't giving him the Derek Jeter treatment.
NL East
A very tough division to figure with 4 teams that have a shot to win it.
NY Mets (90-72)
Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Johan, KRod, and Putz. They can't possibly choke again, right?
Philly (89-73)
Defending world champs, and bring back almost everyone. They made some very stupid moves in giving Moyer more than 1 year and replacing Pat the bat with Ibanez. But they still have Utley, Rollins, Victorino, and the monumentally overrated Ryan Howard. Hamels and Lidge to anchor a pitching staff that has regression written all over it, especially in the pen.
Florida (85-77)
The Fish are sort of like Rodney Dangerfield in that they get no respect. What's not to like about a team with Hanley, Uggla, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Volstad. NL ROY candidate Cameron Maybin and breakout candidates Jeremy Hermida and Andrew Miller, as well as a ton of minor league talent, and solid replacement parts. Probably will not win the division, but will be in the hunt for the summer.
Atl 82-80
The Braves are the opposite of the Fish in that they get too much respect. Ok, you stunk last year, you go out and add 3 above average starting pitchers and you're contenders, right? Wrong. This might be the worst offensive outfield in baseball, and while Johnson, Escobar, Jones, and McCann are well above average at their positions, injuries to any of them (and you know Jones will get hurt) will be catastrophic. And while the rotation is solid, I think its 4th best in the division at least at the top. If everything goes right, ATL could make a run at the division. If anything goes wrong, they will be in the middle of the pack. If everything goes wrong, they could be in last. It all remains to be seen.
Washington 66-96
What do you do when you have a bad MLB roster, a bad farm system, and a GM who seems to be a first class idiot? Why you throw a bunch of money at every free agent on the market, sign just one, and then fire said GM for giving a huge bonus to a guy who is 4 years older than originally thought. Solid offseason, guys, you've got the league scared shitless. What to do for an encore? How about locking up that #1 pick again!!!! They will suck this year, next year, and probably just about every year for the next decade or so. Ryan Zimmerman should do his time and get the fuck out.
NL Central
Very little to like about this division outside of the Cubbies and Pujols. There was not a whole lot of pondering on any of these picks.
Chicago 93-69
The surest bet to win their division out there. The Cubs are very good at every facet of the game, but great at none of them. They are solid in the lineup, but have no stars. They are solid in the rotation, but have no reliable ace, they are solid in the bullpen, but have no lights out closer. The right hand dominant lineup that the Dodgers killed in the playoffs last year is back, but has added Milton Bradley, who will kill them in the field, but could be their best hitter when healthy. Rich Harden when healthy is a top 5 MLB pitcher, but he's never healthy. The most important thing the Cubbies can do is get Soriano the hell out of the lead off spot as he makes more outs than anyone else in the lineup and his power is wasted that the top. It never made sense and makes less and less sense as the it gets exploited more and more by good pitching.
St. Louis 88-74
Albert needs more help, but some of that may be on the way in the form of ace prospect Colby Rasmus. They are decent in the lineup with Ankiel in a contract year, Ludwick following up his breakout year, and several other potential solid contributors. The rotation is suspect, but if they can somehow get 120 starts out of Wainright, Carpenter, Loshe, and Wellemeyer (about as likely as 30 Rich Harden starts), they will be fine. Sorry boys, but it aint happening this year.
Milwaukee (85-77)
CC and Sheets are gone so the load will fall on the lineup and young Gallardo to pick up the slack, with Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Weeks, they may be capable of doing it, but don't expect a return to October. The good news in that help is on the way from one of the top farm systems in the league.
Cinci (79-83)
I keep hearing about the Reds as a sleeper team, and I just don't see it. Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo and Harang should form a decent rotation, and Bruce and Votto may form a good 3-4 in the lineup. Out making machines Brandon Phillips, and Willy Taveras are massively overrated, and will drag the offense down. Likewise Encarnacion can hit, but is a black hole in the field. Then you throw in walking idiot Dusty Baker to manage Cueto and Volquez into Wood/Prior part 2. Ouch.
Hou (71-91)
False hope runs rampant in Houston thanks to a truly improbable run in the second half last year. Roy O cannot pitch every game which means some combo of Rodriguez, Moehler, Hampton, Ortiz and a cast of 1000s will have to make 130 or so starts. That will be interesting. But the holes don't end there. Other than Berkman, everyone in the lineup, is either a terrible hitter, a terrible fielder, or both. To pour salt into the wound, the 'Stros have the worst farm system in baseball, without a single prospect who could make the top 10 lists on the Rangers, Marlins, Indians or A's. Trade Roy, Berkman, Lee, and Valverde now, and you might only stink for 2-3 years instead of a decade. I'll propose Roy to the Indians for Carlos Santana, Dave Dellucci, Jeremy Sowers and something else. They may have to throw in some cash too, but it will give them a potential star catcher, some help in the rotation, and some other prospect. They won't do it.
Pit (65-97)
At least there is no hope here. Though they may have turned the corner by realizing it is a bad idea to play the free agent game until you are a fringe contender. Alvarez could be a star, Maholm and Snell could form a potential good 1-2 punch, and the ballpark should support a winner, if they can ever put one out there.
NL West (worst)
A big crapshoot where throwing darts at a board might be as effective a way to predict the outcome as any.
Arizona (84-78)
Same old adage for the DBacks. Will Young and Upton breakout this year? It seems like they are so close and so talented that it should be the year, but it seemed like that last year too. Webb and Haren form the best 1-2 punch in the league and Davis/Garland/Scherzer should round out a solid rotation. You just never know with the lineup which will make or break their season.
LA (83-79)
Last years team minus Lowe plus a whole season of Manny. That could be a good thing, or it could be a bad thing. They appear to be above average at every position on the field, but I am just not sold on the pitching and while Kemp and Eithier could breakout, they don't have the same talent level as Young/Upton. This division is a coin flip, but I have to go with the team that isn't run by Ned Colletti.
SF (78-84)
Sabean is an idiot, plain and simple. He gave waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much money to Renteria and Johnson, when he could have spent that money on Burrell, Dunn, Abreu, Ibanez, or any number of other guys to significantly upgrade their anemic offense. The rotation with Timmy, Cain, Johnson, Sanchez and Zito may be the best in baseball, but the offense may well be the worst. With all the cheap hitters out there this winter, they seriously couldn't get even one?
Col (75-87)
Caught lightning in a bottle back in 2007 and it showed as they failed miserably to live up to the hype last year. They just don't have enough to get it back this year even if everything goes right.
SD (67-95)
Trade Peavy, Giles, and Gerut right now when their stocks are high. Find a way to get Stratsburg in the draft, sign a few guys in the offseason and be back in the thick of things in 2-3 years. Or don't and you might as well make reservations for golfing in October for the next decade or so. There is no hope here with a bad farm system, a falling bank roll and no budding stars to speak of. The Padres are in disarray, and the economy makes it worse as no one can afford to trade for Peavy, much less give up a kings ransom like he would have been worth 2-3 years ago.
Awards:
AL CY: Josh Beckett
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
AL ROY: (tie) Matt Wieters/David Price
Breakout Star: Sin Soo Choo
Sleeper team: A's
NL CY: Johan Santana
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL ROY: Cameron Maybin
NL Breakout Star: Chris Young
Sleeper team: Marlins
The playoffs
AL:
Sox over A's
Indians over Rays
Sox over Indians
NL:
Mets over DBacks
Cubs over Phillies
Cubs over Mets
World Series
Red Sox over Cubs
AL East:
The toughest division in baseball by far, has 5 teams who could potentially play .500 ball in the NL, and 3 that would likely be the favorites in any other division. One of them is going golfing in October, and I think I got a pretty good idea who.
1. Red Sox (95-67)
This team is stacked with talent, much of it injury prone, but so full of depth that they should be able to absorb just about any injury, smile at you and keep on coming. Beckett anchors the best staff in the league that with solid contributions from Smoltz and/or Penny could be the best of the decade. MVP Pedroia and rising star Kevin Youkilis anchor probably the best 1-9 lineup in the AL. I don't see any way this team doesn't win the division.
2. Rays (92-70)
As loaded as the Sox are with present day talent, the Rays are probably more loaded with future day talent. Soon to be superstars Longoria and Upton lead a powerful lineup and what should be the best defensive team in the league. The pitching is solid anchored by Shields, Kazmir, and Garza who have the potential to be the best 1-2-3 in the game. Ace prospect David Price will be up by May and could finish the year as the team's top pitcher. I'm not entirely sold on the bullpen repeating their years, but the Rays ooze talent that could be packaged for a Huston Street type if need be.
3. Yankees (89-73)
A new stadium, $400 mil worth of new players and a take no prisoners attitude is what the Yankees come into the season with after missing the playoffs last year. Guess what? None of that makes them good enough to hang with the Rays and Sox. Sorry, CC is good, he is not Milwaukee good. He pitched well against awful teams, and merely ok against good ones with his toughest outings coming against the Cubs. The AL has better hitters and it will show. Good luck getting a full year out of any of Burnett, Wang, or Joba. But the thing that will really kill this team is age and lack of depth. Tex is the only good player on the right side of 30. The defense sucks and their best player will miss at least 1/4 of the season, potentially more, and his effectiveness after the injury remains to be seen.
4. Toronto (79-83)
Roy Halladay vs. the AL is what last year's top rotation has been reduced to. No Burnett, no McGowan, no Marcum. The offense should bounce back a bit, but that's a lot to lose and still contend in this division. The cupboard is pretty bare, and it may be a good time to sell high on ol' Doc.
5. Baltimore (76-86)
Baltimore is sort of like the rebel alliance at the beginning of Star Wars. They were once powerful and have fallen on hard times for the last decade or so. Luke Skywalker in this analogy is of course Matt Wieters who is the most highly touted prospect since Alex Rodriguez and figures to be the top catcher in baseball by this time next year. They also have hope in Markakis, Jones, and pitching prospects, but those will not arrive this year, and this team will get hammered on the scoreboard worse than anyone this side of Arlington.
AL Central:
I have seen every team except KC picked to win this division and I just don't see anyone besides Cleveland or Minnie doing it. The white sox just can not sustain their catch lightning a in a bottle strategy forever, can they?
1. Cleveland (89-73)
Ok, the pitching is a bit of a question mark, but they have the reigning Cy Young winner, and the guy who finished 4th the previous year, as well as a guy who won 18 games a few years ago, a guy who dominated in the world series 3 years ago, and lots of AAA stars in the fold. I think it'll be ok, not great, but ok. Where Cleveland will make it up is on offense. Grady Sizemore is the best all around player in the AL and in the top 5 in baseball, he will get help from a certain bounce back from Victor Martinez, the underrated Johnny Peralta, and rising star Choo, all of whom rank in the top 3-4 players at their position in the AL. Newly acquired Mark Derosa, should provide an upgrade at 3rd and bounce backs are likely from Garko and Cabrera, both of whom had great second halves last year. Francisco in left is rather weak, and Hafner at DH cannot be relied upon, so anything out of either one is a bonus, but the risk is low and the reward is high. Cleveland could win as many as 100 games or as little as 80 depending on the big L-U-C-K, but they return all of what was the best team in baseball down the stretch last year, and have added a solid closer and third baseman, so I like their chances.
2. Twins (83-79)
Just about everything went right for this team last year, and they still could not win the division. They have a very solid young pitching staff and a decent lineup when M&M are in it. They will be in a lot of trouble in Mauer isn't back quickly and it could sink them in the standings.
3. Tigers (79-83)
Thank god I did not have to hear about how great the Tigers' lineup is all winter like I did last year. It has become the Miguel Cabrera show. Granderson is the second best CF in the AL, and a very underrated player. Ordonez will be solid, but don't expect him to ever come close to 2007 again. Polonco and Guillen are also good, but both are a year older and will also not be coming close to their numbers from 2-3 years ago. There are serious holes at catcher, third, and short which will be like having 3 AAA guys at the bottom of the lineup. They at least can play the field well. The pitching is downright awful after Verlander. I don't see how they can possibly win the division, nor how anyone can think they will.
Kansas City (75-87)
No, getting Mike Jacobs and Kyle Farnsworth was not a good offseason. Not at all. Actually one of the worst in all of baseball. However, I expect Gordon to finally breakout this year along with steps forward from Butler and Avelies with solid pitching from Grienke and Meche and of course Soria (who should probably be starting). Not enough to contend, but enough to be pesky.
White Sox (74-88)
The good news for White Sox fans: I'm almost always wrong about this team. The bad news: you're not any good. Okay, if you get really lucky again, you may be good. But the only guys you are counting on in their primes are Quentin, Danks, Buerhle and Floyd. Everyone else is either too young or over the hill. Thome, Konerko and Dye may have one last hurrah, or they may fall of a cliff. They are counting on Getz, Fields, and Wise who have about as much major league experience as the Cubs have championships in the last century. I am not an AJ fan, and I do not think Alexi Ramirez is the next big thing, rather that he is as likely to be a one year wonder as he is to turn into a star. This team is like swiss cheese in that they have good parts, but are chock full of holes.
AL West
The AL West is really hard to figure. Oakland is loaded with young talent, but almost no experienced pitching, TLAAOA have less talent, but more experience, the others will likely fall out of the picture quickly.
1. Oakland 85-77
Giambi, Holliday, and Cust form a solid middle of the order. Cabrera and Ellis are perhaps the best defensive keystone combo in the AL, and in Sweeney, Buck, Chavez, Barton, and Nomar, there is potential for a very solid lineup. Talented youngsters Braden, Eveland, Gallagher, and Anderson could form a well above average rotation for the next 5 or so years. Then again, they might not. Devine and Ziegler will also form a good 1-2 punch in the pen.
2. TLAAOA 84-78
How is a team that won 100 games a year ago going to struggle to win 85 this year? Simple, they were amazingly lucky a year ago. Plus they have lost KRod and Tex and start the season with 3 of their best pitchers on the DL. The thing that will hurt the most is how stupid they are offensively. They refuse to join the 21st century of playing smart ball based on taking walks, hitting for power, and not running into outs. Now, Abreu and Napoli both play that way, but no one else in the lineup, even Vladdy does. The lineup isn't great, the starting rotation looks thin and the defense is bad. Its going to be the bullpen's job to save the day until Lackey and Santana return, but even that may not be enough.
3. Seattle 78-84
Seemed to finally abandon the Bavasi strategy of shooting themselves in the foot every year, but there is still a long way to go. It's probably a good idea to sell Beltre and possibly right now rather than try to contend this year. Because if they get lucky and stay in the race, it will set them back 2-3 years, especially if they try to get that last missing piece.
4. Texas 72-90
Good lineup. No pitching... yet. Help is on the way, but it will be a year or two until it is ready. Kinsler is one of the best players in the AL when healthy, and though slightly overrated, so is Hamilton. Though the pitching can't be as bad as a year ago, the loss of Milton Bradley will cancel out any gains that might have been made. A true telling sign of just how stupid gold gloves are: returning "Gold Glove" ss, Michael Young, has been moved to 3b. At least they aren't giving him the Derek Jeter treatment.
NL East
A very tough division to figure with 4 teams that have a shot to win it.
NY Mets (90-72)
Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Johan, KRod, and Putz. They can't possibly choke again, right?
Philly (89-73)
Defending world champs, and bring back almost everyone. They made some very stupid moves in giving Moyer more than 1 year and replacing Pat the bat with Ibanez. But they still have Utley, Rollins, Victorino, and the monumentally overrated Ryan Howard. Hamels and Lidge to anchor a pitching staff that has regression written all over it, especially in the pen.
Florida (85-77)
The Fish are sort of like Rodney Dangerfield in that they get no respect. What's not to like about a team with Hanley, Uggla, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Volstad. NL ROY candidate Cameron Maybin and breakout candidates Jeremy Hermida and Andrew Miller, as well as a ton of minor league talent, and solid replacement parts. Probably will not win the division, but will be in the hunt for the summer.
Atl 82-80
The Braves are the opposite of the Fish in that they get too much respect. Ok, you stunk last year, you go out and add 3 above average starting pitchers and you're contenders, right? Wrong. This might be the worst offensive outfield in baseball, and while Johnson, Escobar, Jones, and McCann are well above average at their positions, injuries to any of them (and you know Jones will get hurt) will be catastrophic. And while the rotation is solid, I think its 4th best in the division at least at the top. If everything goes right, ATL could make a run at the division. If anything goes wrong, they will be in the middle of the pack. If everything goes wrong, they could be in last. It all remains to be seen.
Washington 66-96
What do you do when you have a bad MLB roster, a bad farm system, and a GM who seems to be a first class idiot? Why you throw a bunch of money at every free agent on the market, sign just one, and then fire said GM for giving a huge bonus to a guy who is 4 years older than originally thought. Solid offseason, guys, you've got the league scared shitless. What to do for an encore? How about locking up that #1 pick again!!!! They will suck this year, next year, and probably just about every year for the next decade or so. Ryan Zimmerman should do his time and get the fuck out.
NL Central
Very little to like about this division outside of the Cubbies and Pujols. There was not a whole lot of pondering on any of these picks.
Chicago 93-69
The surest bet to win their division out there. The Cubs are very good at every facet of the game, but great at none of them. They are solid in the lineup, but have no stars. They are solid in the rotation, but have no reliable ace, they are solid in the bullpen, but have no lights out closer. The right hand dominant lineup that the Dodgers killed in the playoffs last year is back, but has added Milton Bradley, who will kill them in the field, but could be their best hitter when healthy. Rich Harden when healthy is a top 5 MLB pitcher, but he's never healthy. The most important thing the Cubbies can do is get Soriano the hell out of the lead off spot as he makes more outs than anyone else in the lineup and his power is wasted that the top. It never made sense and makes less and less sense as the it gets exploited more and more by good pitching.
St. Louis 88-74
Albert needs more help, but some of that may be on the way in the form of ace prospect Colby Rasmus. They are decent in the lineup with Ankiel in a contract year, Ludwick following up his breakout year, and several other potential solid contributors. The rotation is suspect, but if they can somehow get 120 starts out of Wainright, Carpenter, Loshe, and Wellemeyer (about as likely as 30 Rich Harden starts), they will be fine. Sorry boys, but it aint happening this year.
Milwaukee (85-77)
CC and Sheets are gone so the load will fall on the lineup and young Gallardo to pick up the slack, with Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Weeks, they may be capable of doing it, but don't expect a return to October. The good news in that help is on the way from one of the top farm systems in the league.
Cinci (79-83)
I keep hearing about the Reds as a sleeper team, and I just don't see it. Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo and Harang should form a decent rotation, and Bruce and Votto may form a good 3-4 in the lineup. Out making machines Brandon Phillips, and Willy Taveras are massively overrated, and will drag the offense down. Likewise Encarnacion can hit, but is a black hole in the field. Then you throw in walking idiot Dusty Baker to manage Cueto and Volquez into Wood/Prior part 2. Ouch.
Hou (71-91)
False hope runs rampant in Houston thanks to a truly improbable run in the second half last year. Roy O cannot pitch every game which means some combo of Rodriguez, Moehler, Hampton, Ortiz and a cast of 1000s will have to make 130 or so starts. That will be interesting. But the holes don't end there. Other than Berkman, everyone in the lineup, is either a terrible hitter, a terrible fielder, or both. To pour salt into the wound, the 'Stros have the worst farm system in baseball, without a single prospect who could make the top 10 lists on the Rangers, Marlins, Indians or A's. Trade Roy, Berkman, Lee, and Valverde now, and you might only stink for 2-3 years instead of a decade. I'll propose Roy to the Indians for Carlos Santana, Dave Dellucci, Jeremy Sowers and something else. They may have to throw in some cash too, but it will give them a potential star catcher, some help in the rotation, and some other prospect. They won't do it.
Pit (65-97)
At least there is no hope here. Though they may have turned the corner by realizing it is a bad idea to play the free agent game until you are a fringe contender. Alvarez could be a star, Maholm and Snell could form a potential good 1-2 punch, and the ballpark should support a winner, if they can ever put one out there.
NL West (worst)
A big crapshoot where throwing darts at a board might be as effective a way to predict the outcome as any.
Arizona (84-78)
Same old adage for the DBacks. Will Young and Upton breakout this year? It seems like they are so close and so talented that it should be the year, but it seemed like that last year too. Webb and Haren form the best 1-2 punch in the league and Davis/Garland/Scherzer should round out a solid rotation. You just never know with the lineup which will make or break their season.
LA (83-79)
Last years team minus Lowe plus a whole season of Manny. That could be a good thing, or it could be a bad thing. They appear to be above average at every position on the field, but I am just not sold on the pitching and while Kemp and Eithier could breakout, they don't have the same talent level as Young/Upton. This division is a coin flip, but I have to go with the team that isn't run by Ned Colletti.
SF (78-84)
Sabean is an idiot, plain and simple. He gave waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much money to Renteria and Johnson, when he could have spent that money on Burrell, Dunn, Abreu, Ibanez, or any number of other guys to significantly upgrade their anemic offense. The rotation with Timmy, Cain, Johnson, Sanchez and Zito may be the best in baseball, but the offense may well be the worst. With all the cheap hitters out there this winter, they seriously couldn't get even one?
Col (75-87)
Caught lightning in a bottle back in 2007 and it showed as they failed miserably to live up to the hype last year. They just don't have enough to get it back this year even if everything goes right.
SD (67-95)
Trade Peavy, Giles, and Gerut right now when their stocks are high. Find a way to get Stratsburg in the draft, sign a few guys in the offseason and be back in the thick of things in 2-3 years. Or don't and you might as well make reservations for golfing in October for the next decade or so. There is no hope here with a bad farm system, a falling bank roll and no budding stars to speak of. The Padres are in disarray, and the economy makes it worse as no one can afford to trade for Peavy, much less give up a kings ransom like he would have been worth 2-3 years ago.
Awards:
AL CY: Josh Beckett
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
AL ROY: (tie) Matt Wieters/David Price
Breakout Star: Sin Soo Choo
Sleeper team: A's
NL CY: Johan Santana
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL ROY: Cameron Maybin
NL Breakout Star: Chris Young
Sleeper team: Marlins
The playoffs
AL:
Sox over A's
Indians over Rays
Sox over Indians
NL:
Mets over DBacks
Cubs over Phillies
Cubs over Mets
World Series
Red Sox over Cubs
posted by Andrew Manning at
9:33 PM
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