Colletti Strikes Again!

I bet Ned Colletti was really into baseball cards as a kid and was only interested in collecting the cards with the largest face value. So when I made that trade of Fred McGriff for Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter rookie cards back in '95, he'd have been the kid to jump at the deal. Well not much has changed since he became GM of the Dodgers, and he did it again today.

Colletti's collection of former Red Sox and aging superstars grew again today as he added future HOF outfielder Manny Ramirez to the mix. Shit, I'm surprised he didn't go out and get Jr. Giffey too, but I guess the White Sox beat him to it.

I guess the first question is why? The Dodgers needed a bat, but not a corner outfielder who only bats righthanded, is on the decline, is a horrible fielder and has been known to create distractions. With their duo of horrible contracts in centerfield and two solid young players at the corners, the Dodgers already had too many outfielders. Now they have one more, and in order for this trade to help at all, they must sit Pierre and Jones and play either Eithier or Kemp in center, neither of which will help their defense.

I wish the talking heads would please stop acting like the Dodgers just pulled a coup on the Sawx. As much as they may want him to be, this is not your older brother's Manny. He has been on the decline for two years now since having a career resurgence in 2006. He is leaving one of the best hitters parks in baseball for the much tougher Chavez Ravine, and he has been known to take plays off. Plus, do you really think he's going to get anything to hit with the game on the line? Not with Loney, Kemp, and Martin being the only 3 above average hitters currently in the lineup.

As for the Sawx, they got rid of 3 things they didn't want and got a very good, underrated player who may match the production of Ramirez for the rest of the year. Bay is a clear upgrade from the 1 dimensional Ramirez in the field, on the base paths, and in the clubhouse. He has had some monster years with Pittsburgh, has yet to turn 30, and is under contract through 2009 for less than the Red Sox paid the Dodgers to take Manny.

The Pirates did not net any uber prospects, but got 3 guys who could turn into solid major leaguers - pretty good for a year and a half of Bay.

Look: if this was the same Manny Ramirez of 4 or 5 years ago, this would be a crazy deal for Theo, but its not. This is dumping an old, over the hill cancer from a well oiled machine who has won 2 of the last 4 world series, and has to still be considered one of the favorites to do it again this year. It's true Ramirez was a big part of those world series teams, but he's also a big reason why it's just two and not 3 or 4. Boston can handle an drop off in production from leftfield thanks to stellar years from Drew and Youkilis, and the return of Papi. The addition by subtraction should invigorate the most talented team in the big leagues and may just be enough to put them over the top - again.

As for the White Sox, they have an even bigger problem. They already have one of the worst defensive outfields I have ever seen and they added the aging Kid for no reason other than they wanted to make a headline to remind people that Chicago has two teams. First of all, Griffey isn't even a good hitter in the NL anymore, nor is he a good outfielder. What's going to happen in the AL?

He can't man a corner position with Dye and Quentin taking care of those, he can't DH with Thome entrenched there, so that leaves center and first. There's no way he's going to play first because Griffey don't play no stinkin first, so that leaves center. He hasn't played center since 2006, and hasn't been good at it for much longer than that. Despite the fact that Kenny Williams seems to think center is easier on your body than left and right, it's not and Griffey is a huge injury risk. This bumps Konerko, and his bloated salary from the lineup, at least against right handed pitching which is a good thing on paper, but might not turn out so well in reality. Who knows how Konerko, the team leader for years, will react to being a bench player, plus I highly doubt KGJ will be much of an upgrade offensively. This poses just one question: why would you do that?

More Seibel on Dunn

Seibel just can't seem to give Adam Dunn any credit for being a good player.

Subject: Player you want your team to trade for.

Caller: The Diamond Backs should trade for Dunn. They need a lefthanded power hitter.

Seibel: I don't think that's a good idea. Yeah, he hits a lot of home runs, but his batting average with runners in scoring position is horrible. When runners are on base, he runs and hides. Puts his hands around his neck. All of his home runs come with the bases empty. He's also a horrible fielder, has a bad arm and is a bad baserunner. He used to be a good baserunner, he used to steal bases. Griffey would be a lot better fit. He'll be more productive and not hurt you in the field or on the bases as much.

Adam Dunn: .238/.383/.548. RISP: .259/.387/.600, 9 home runs in 85 AB.

That took 5 seconds.

Ken Griffey: .246/.357/.427. RISP: .226/.393/.452

How do these people get to keep their jobs? This would be like me not looking up the price of a part, just buying it and saying that it cost whatever I think it cost. Dunn also has 1 stolen base to Griffey's 0, and 75% career success rate to Griffer's 72% but stolen bases are stupid anyway.

Dunn may not be that good of a fielder, but he's a left fielder - Arizona has been playing their first baseman in left, they have two centerfielders, and Griffey is not a good fielder anymore either.

I have an idea for a TV showcase: a boxing match of Dunn vs. Seibel and JP Riccardi. Instead of music during the introductions, they could play tapes of the comments those two have made about Dunn in the past. It would be great.

Ned Colletti Never Ceases to Amaze

Ned Colletti is probably the worst GM in all of sports unless you still count Isiah Thomas. He has signed numerous horrible contracts and made many head scratching moves over the years, but he had always held on to his young players (even though he wouldn't let them play) until now. Today Colletti traded two solid prospects for journeyman Casey Blake. Blake is 34, in the last year of his contract, and a notoriously poor fielder. This would be one thing if he hit like Ryan Braun or Chipper Jones, but his OPS is only .830. Now, being an Indians fan I have liked Casey Blake, he has been a very pleasant surprise since Shapiro picked him off the scrap heap in 2003, but Shapiro just sold at the absolute high point. Blake may still re-sign with Cleveland. He is a fan favorite and seems to like it there so that makes this deal all the better for the Indians.

The Indians got pitcher John Meloan, and catcher Carlos Santana (no, not that Carlos Santana). Meloan was absolutely nasty as closer in AA last year, and was good in AAA. This year, the Dodgers attempted to convert him into a starter seeing his hits and walks skyrocket. He is still striking out batters and not giving up homers, so it looks like he might just be better suited to relief. He will probably get a shot to close in Cleveland next year, a position where they could use
some help.

Santana would be a great addition even if he had no baseball skills because hey, his name is Carlos Santana! But he may turn out to be the best part of the deal. He was converted to catcher last year from outfield/3b and struggled throughout the 2007 season. This year has been a different story as he has just torn it up posting a stellar .318/.424/.563 line at long A ball. This could give the Indians a logjam at catcher, which of course is never a bad thing.

Back to the Dodgers end of things, the age old question applies: WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT?!?! The Dodgers defensively, at least for the short term, will consist of (Dr.) Jeff Kent, Nomar, and Blake. This is an infield only a fly ball pitcher could love. Lowe and Kuroda of course are not.

The lineup has not improved much, the defense has gotten much worse, and the farm system is weaker. This will not be the trade that puts them over the top. This one may have, but they turned that down. Good job Ned.

KRod about to Cash in Big

If Francisco Rodriguez continues his current pace he will save almost 70 games and set himself up for the biggest payday a closer has ever had. He's looking at a minimum of 5 years $75M, and possibly up to 6 years and $100M. This will be a contract that will become the bane of whoever is dumb enough to give it to him.

First of all, as I have said earlier, the save is the single stupidest statistic in all of baseball. It is completely circumstantial, and often times doesn't require you to even be effective in the one inning you pitch. To get a save a game, a pitcher must: finish a game won by his team where he inherited the lead, and either entered the game with a lead of 3 runs or less and pitched at least 1 inning, entered the game with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck, or pitched for at least three innings. This means entering the game with the based loaded, up by one, and no one out counts as a save just as much as no one on, no one out and a 3 run lead, or even worse when you pitch the last 3 innings of a 30-3 blowout.

Second, Rodriguez is averaging less than 1 inning per outing and is on pace to pitch a stellar 72 innings on the year. CC Sabathia has almost thrown half of that total for the Brewers already, and he's been there for two weeks.

Finally, other than the outrageous amount of staves, Rodriguez is having a bad year! His K/9 are down from 13.18, 12.16, 12.08, and 12.03 the last 4 years to 9.33 this year. He's already almost set a career high in walks. His fielding independent pitching is 3.19 which is just about average for a closer.

Spendingh big money on a closer is bad, spending big money on a closer who is slipping is even worse. Giving record money to a guy who just set a record despite not having his best year is a recipe for one of the worst contracts ever.

Lets hope the Yankees bite.

Heard it on the Radio

Once again, I was listening to sportsradio on my drive home because I have nothing better to do, and once again I heard something so mind bogglingly idiotic that I asked myself how do these people get jobs? I'm not sure which program it was, probably sportsnation with Siebal and Destrade, but I don't want to give credit where it isn't due.

Anyway, the two hosts were talking about which pitcher traded will make the biggest impact on the season and the playoffs. Obviously the discussion was supposed to be centered around Sabathia and Harden, of which CC is obviously more valuable thus far. But no, one of the hosts had a different take:

"This is going to be a surprise, but I think it's going to be Joe Blanton. The Phillies already have a great lineup and a great bullpen and are just one starter away from being a world series contender. I think Blanton is underrated as a pitcher and his statistics are a lot better than they actually are."

That's not word for word except for the last half of the last sentence which I will repeat in bold for those who may have missed it. his statistics are a lot better than they actually are. No that's not a typo or a misremember on my part. The guy did not say he has pitched better than his stats, or his stats are misleading, or that he is better than his stats indicate, no he said his state were a lot better than they actually are. What the hell is that supposed to mean? None of Blanton's numbers this year are good. He's got a 1.42 WHIP and a 4.96 ERA, and strikes out about as many batters per 9 as Harden does in an inning. Blanton was never really all that good either and has always had a ridiculous home road split especially last year when he had a 5.11 ERA on the road and a 2.69 in Oakland. What's going to happen in Citizen Bank? Nothing good, I'll bet.

This was a great trade for Oakland. They traded away an overrated pitcher and got some decent prospects. They will be loaded in a year or two after the trades of Haren, Swisher, Harden, Blanton, and you know it's coming, Street. Add to that the fact that they are pretty good this year, and you have the potential to blow the South Central Angels of Orange County out of the playoff picture for the rest of that horrible Gary Matthews contract.

This Guy is a Professional Sports Writer

I just can't help myself. This guy is a complete moron, he is a beat writer for the White Sox - a team I just can't stand, and he was not adequately torn apart by FJM, so I'll have to do it.

Hamilton has left huge footprints on the '08 season, but we can't even say he has been the biggest surprise among players. That distinction goes to White Sox left fielder Carlos Quentin, whose 22 home runs and 70 RBIs lifted his team into first place in the American League Central.

Raise your hands if you saw Quentin coming.

Ooh, pick me!

No, not you, Ozzie Guillen.

No, pick me! Me!

If Guillen had foreseen the kind of force that Quentin could be, he would have started him on Opening Day.

No one ever said Guillen wasn't a crazy person.

Quentin, a .230 hitter in 138 big-league games entering the season, didn't get on the field until the third game. He drove in seven runs in the first five games and has only missed two games since then.

You didn't pick me :(

Anyone who has looked at Carlos Quentin's minor league numbers and his .953 minor league OPS is not at all surprised by his great first half. What is a surprise is that the Diamond Backs, a team with a horrible offense, traded him so that they could give big bucks to a guy who is a better announcer than baseball player and has no business being a major league left fielder. Hamilton is a bit more of a surprise, but his numbers, while good, are not as good as everyone seems to think. He's leading the league in RBIs, which is pretty much the stupidest statistic in baseball other than saves. His OBP is just .365, and OPS is only .910. A better choice for biggest surprise would be Justin Duchscherer, or Cliff Lee who have completely defied the odds after being awful last year.

For that, we're calling Quentin the Best Surprise, Player, at the All-Star break.

And I'm calling you wrong.

General manager Mark Shapiro was disappointed when he couldn't sign CC Sabathia to a contract extension in spring training but didn't think he'd be trading him on July 7. So much for the team that took Boston to seven games in last year's AL Championship Series. Injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, combined with a horrible sophomore season by Asdrubal Cabrera and Shapiro's failure to add a run-producing bat in a corner outfield spot has left the Indians ninth in the AL with 4.5 runs per game.

When you lose your 3 and 4 hitters you will probably struggle offensively. And Cleveland's offense really hasn't been the problem. It hasn't been a strength either, but they have scored more runs than the major league leading Angels, and are just 2 runs behind the "Best Surprise Team." The Indians struggles can be pointed more directly at bad luck and pitching. Betancourt has completely fallen on his face, Westbrook was lost for the season, and I think there was something else... Hmm what was it? Oh yeah, the guy who finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last year hasn't had a healthy start sing May 17th when surprise, the Indians were just 0.5 games out of first.


MVP, AL: J.D. Drew, Red Sox. There's no clear-cut choice here. Some might go with Hamilton or Kinsler based on sheer production, but you'd like your MVP to come from a team positioned for the playoffs.

I would? Wow, you must know me better than I know myself. Where does it say that the MVP must come from a team headed for the playoffs? That's stupid. The MVP should be the player who added the most wins to his team's total. To me, that's the definition of value. In other words, the MVP = the best damn player in the league. Which right now = Kinsler, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore in that order.

Drew (.302-17-55) has stepped up his production, helping Boston go 23-16 since David Ortiz went out with a wrist injury.

Drew is also 4th on his own team in VORP, plays a much easier position than Kinsler or Sizemore, and has missed more games than Chipper Jones.

You could go with Quentin almost as easily.

You could, but Dye would be a better case. So would Mauer, Morneau, Bradley, Hamilton, Youkilis, or ARod just to name a few.

The White Sox left fielder has been a better hitter on the road than home and is batting .345 with men in scoring position. Drew has been a slightly better hitter overall and is valuable in right field.

1. His Road vs. home split difference is minimal and mostly in batting average (cough luck cough) everything else is basically dead even.
2. Just luck.
3. Actually Drew's been a considerably better hitter, and neither is a great fielder, so lets not use it as a tie breaker.

MVP, NL: Pat Burrell, Phillies.

Not even close to the most valuable (or second most valuable) player on the Phillies.

How could this guy have not been an All-Star?

No argument here, he should have been an all star. Instead, guys like Tejada, Brian Wilson, and Christian Guzman were.

He has helped Philadelphia hang onto first place in the NL East.

So has Jamie Moyer. Lets give him the MVP.

While Burrell plays in a hitter's paradise, he has built his stats (.275-23-57) with better hitting on the road than at home.

So he should actually be better than he is! A lot of that probably has to do with how the Phillie fans have treated him in the past.

Atlanta's Chipper Jones and Houston's Lance Berkman are having bigger seasons but play on second-division teams.

I'm going to re-write this without changing his argument just to show how absurd it is: Atlanta's Chipper Jones, Houston's Lance Berkman, Florida's Hanley Ramirez, and St. Louis's Albert Pujols have been more valuable but play on teams not currently in first place in their division. First place in the division is a pre-requisite for the MVP because if you're team isn't in first, you are not making your teammates play at your level like an MVP should. Philadelphia's Chase Utley has been disqualified because he eats babies.

Cy Young Award, AL: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays. Halladay combines durability with the ability to dominate better than any pitcher in the game. He has gone 11-6 with a 2.71 ERA while leading the majors in complete games (seven) and innings (1461/3).

Cleveland's Cliff Lee, Oakland's Justin Duchscherer and the Angels' Francisco Rodriguez (38 saves) are best positioned to take the award away from Halladay.

1. Halladay has been great this year, but Lee and Duchscherer have been better. Much better ERAs, RAs, RA+s, and VORPS.
2. Saves are stupid.
3. Rivera has pitched much better than Rodriguez this year and any other.

Cy Young Award, NL: Edinson Volquez, Reds. Acquired from Texas for Hamilton, Volquez, 25, has gone 12-3 for a team with a 46-50 record.

He's also walked 4.33 batters per 9 and has only thrown 122 innings.

He has compiled a 2.29 ERA while making nine of his 19 starts at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Those twin feats give him a slight edge over San Francisco's Tim Lincecum, Arizona's Brandon Webb and Philadelphia's Cole Hamels.

Cole Hamels has been considerably better in a more hitter friendly park. Webb isn't even the best pitcher on his own team (that'd be Haren). Sheets at least deserves mention.

Rookie of the Year, AL: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox. Ellsbury is hitting only .269 but he has stolen 35 bases and scored 60 runs. He gets a slight edge over Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria and Texas' David Murphy.

Anyone who does not pick Longoria for this award is no longer entitled to their opinion.

Manager of the Year, AL: Mike Scioscia, Angels. It's a semi-miracle that the Angels matched the Cubs' best-in-baseball record of 57-38 at the All-Star break. They've scored 409 runs, 11th in the AL, and allowed 388 runs, the fifth-best total in the AL. Scioscia seldom wastes anything you give him.

Scioscia apparently has morphed Saunders and Santana into aces and has some magical power that makes his team extra lucky. He is also the guy who keeps giving ABs to Anderson and Matthews. Joe Maddon has won this award. There is no debate here.

Manager of the Year, NL: Jerry Manuel, Mets. This is a premature call, but you've got to be impressed with the 17-9 record since Manuel replaced Willie Randolph on June 17. He has enabled an uptight clubhouse to relax and is riding a 10-game winning streak after Thursday's victory in Cincinnati. Florida's Fredi Gonzalez was looking like the choice before the Mets went on the winning streak. He has put his team into contention with a $21 million payroll, a nice little bit of sleight of hand.

KT over at FJM did a good job with this one. I will add that Piniella and Bochy deserve consideration. To already have won 40 games with the Giants is one of the most underrated accomplishments of the 2008 season.

The Future of Cooperstown Part two

Relievers heavily populate the HOF Monitor list between Smoltz and Santana: Hoffman, Franco, Mesa, Wagner, Hernandez, Percival, Todd Jones, Benitez, and Mike Stanton. I'm going to go ahead and ignore everyone here except Hoffman and Wagner because if anyone seriously thinks these guys belong in Cooperstown they are either a close personal friend to the player or very stupid.

Wagner and Hoffman have been the second and third best closers in baseball for the past ten years racking up tons of saves and great numbers in the process. However they have combined for a grand total of zero games started, zero 100 inning seasons, and zero world series rings. Bruce Sutter is the only player in the hall who did not start a single game his entire career. There is no pitcher in the hall that did not have at least two 100 inning seasons, including those who were primarily relievers. I believe Sutter is in for the sole reason that he popularized the use of the splitter something neither Wagner nor Hoffman did. Although you could make a similar argument with Hoffman's change up.

Wagner has been a much more dominant pitcher than Hoffman for much of his career. Wagner has much better career averages for H/9, K/9, and ERA, and has three seasons better than Hoffman's best with his 1999 season standing as one of the best for a closer in recent history. Hoffman and Wagner's accomplishments however pale in comparison to Rivera's. Rivera has been incredibly consistent and dominant since 1996 only once posting and ERA above 3 during those years and only three times above 2.35. And then there's the post season. With a 0.77 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 117.1 innings Rivera is arguably the greatest post season pitcher ever. And that's why he's the exception to the closer rule and Hoffman and Wagner are good, but just not good enough.

Moving to tough position players namely guys who played 2nd, short, centerfield, and catcher. This argument has worked well recently to get players like Ozzie Smith, Ryne Sandberg, and Gary Carter into the Hall none of whom really belong. It will be tried in the future for Biggio, Bernie Williams, (Dr.) Jeff Kent, Larkin, Tejada, Nomar, Vizquel, and Andruw Jones. All seem to be either retired or past their primes and unlikely to improve their state much if at all. Tejada will be hurt by the drug accusations and I cannot possibly fathom anyone voting for Jones, so we will focus on the other six.

Craig Biggio
Craig Biggio is considered a lock by many because he has an arbitrary number of hits that is considered a career milestone. Hits is a stupid counting stat in the first place because the all time hit leaders list reads almost identical to the all time at bat leaders list. Biggio is no exeception to this rule as he had to hang on for six painful years after his prime ended just to get the number. From 1993-1999 Biggio was the second best 2nd baseman in baseball behind Alomar, hewas the spark plug on some very good Astro's teams, and he was a decent fielder. During this time he put up Hall of Fame quality numbers. Once his run ended however, Biggio fell quickly striking out more and more, walking less and less and hitting for a much lower average. His speed was also gone and rather than hitting line drives for singles and doubles as he had, Biggio began to swing for the fences and it really killed his numbers. I'll file him under the 10 years of goodness 10 years of mediocrity category even though it was more like 8 years of goodness, 12 years of mediocrity. Very good player, even better teammate, just not hall of fame caliber.

Bernie Williams
Williams was arguably the most important position player during the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s. He was a very good centerfielder, solid hitter, and great post season performer. In many ways he was superior to Derek Jeter, but Williams just doesn't quite have Jeter's longevity. It took Williams almost four years to blossom into a star whereas Jeter did it almost immediately, taking ROY honors at 22. Jeter also appears to have several more decent years ahead of him to improve on his numbers that are already better. Williams is a better HOF candidate than Biggio, but he is just one or two of his peak productive years shy of getting in.

Barry Larkin
Larkin was the best shortstop in the NL during the 90s and the best in baseball until the "Big Three" (Jeter, Rodriguez, Garciaparra) showed up. He was an MVP, a postseason star, and a 12 time all star yet he was never appreciated as he should have been. He was much like another team leading, world series champion, under appreciated shortstop who is not in the Hall: Alan Trammell. Trammell is not surprisingly Larkins #1 similar batter on baseball reference as the two put up almost identical career numbers. Trammell despite playing in a relatively poor offensive era is not in the Hall, and until that happens Larkin cannot justifiably be elected. Larkin does however deserve to be in before Williams or Biggio, neither of whom dominated their position like Larkin did.

Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar is one of the most interesting candidates in a long time. In just his third full season, Nomar was arguably the best player in all of baseball. He remained their for two years putting up terrific numbers in 1999 and 2000 while playing great defense and separating himself a bit from the other two thirds of the big three. Just as quickly Nomar fell back to earth battling injuries, the fans, and his own head. He eventually fell so far out of favor with Red Sox nation that he was dealt for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz, two players who would help the Sox end their 86 year 'curse' the same year. Needless to say, Nomar was not missed. His post Boston career has never been close to what it was. His numbers are down, he can't stay healthy, and he's not a shortstop anymore. Because he was so great early on, he still has very good numbers, but not Hall worthy.

Omar Vizquel
Though Vizquel is one of my all time favorite players, the argument for him is weak. It is based either on the hope that he will get the almost 400 hits he needs for 3000, or the belief that he was superior to Ozzie Smith and/or Luis Aparicio both of whom are in the Hall. Since it appears that I have the same chance of getting another 400 hits in the big leagues as he does, we'll focus on the Smith/Aparicio comparisons as these are his top two comparisons on baseball refence. Smith: it's hard to argue that Vizquel was a superior offensive player to Smith who put up similar numbers in a tougher era. The fielding argument has more merit. Vizquel was the most sure handed fielder I have ever seen and is the all time fielding percentage leader at short. Smith is said to have had the best range in history, a fact that is difficult to measure. Smith could also do a back flip and played in St. Louis - things Vizquel did not do. Aparicio on the other hand was clearly not close to the player Omar was both at the plate and in the field. What hurts Omar is he came along at the same time as the offensive shortstop: Ripken, Larkin, Rodriguez, Jeter, Garciaparra, and Tejada among others were superior hitters. Though none could pick it like Omar, I don't think you can justify putting a guy into the hall that was not one of the top 5 players at his position for the majority of his playing years.

Jeff Kent
The Dr. really has no business being in this conversation as he only is due to the fact that he has good numbers for a second baseman. Here's the thing: he shouldn't be a second baseman. He isn't a good second baseman, and never really was. He should have been a third baseman for most of his career, and a first baseman for the last few, but that would push him out of the Hall conversation. At least Piazza handled his pitchers well. The Dr.'s greatest contribution was to the humor end of baseball with highlights being the quote that led to me calling him the Dr. and reports that he once broke his wrist crashing his motorcycle in the offseason. I have made peace with the truth that, despite the fact that they might not absolutely belong, some of the guys on this list will make the Hall. But if Jeff Kent gets into the Hall of Fame, I will officially disown Cooperstown and never set foot into the town again. There is nothing Hall of Fame about him, and if the writers are dumb enough to elect him, they deserve him.

The Future of Cooperstown Part one.

A little over a decade ago at a time when I still thought that batting average and wins were important stats I visited the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown New York for the first time and I loved it. I had never seen anyone who was in the Hall play and looked mainly at the plaques of players I had heard of such as Ruth, Williams, Aaron and Mays. I was in awe of all the great players, the legends I had never seen.

Well a lot of time has past and I have not been back. Part of that is the location of the hall, but another is the shear volume of undeserving players that have been admitted. I have gotten to see most of the players admitted in the last ten years and with the exceptions of Ryan and Eckersley I haven't been very impressed. I feel like they are watering down the hall.

In my opinion, the hall should be reserved for the top 1-2% or so of players, so of the 1200 players currently on 40 man rosters, about 20 of them should make the hall. I don't believe in "magic numbers" and I think that 5 years of greatness should count more than 15 years of goodness, but 15 years of goodness should count more than 10 years of goodness and 10 years of mediocrity. For a long time i thought closers didn't belong in the hall, but I have made an exception for Mariano Rivera who is the best I have ever seen and has left no doubt in my mind that he could have been a solid starter.

There are 11 current players I see as absolute locks for the hall (suspected drug use makes Clemens and Bonds question marks): Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro, Glavine, Smoltz, Rivera, Griffey, ARod, Jeter, Pudge, and Manny. These 11 all had great peaks and great longevity and are in unless they Bonds or Rose their way out. There are also __ guys who have retired but are not yet eligible that should be locks: Piazza, Robbie Alomar, and Rickey Henderson arguments can be made against all of them but all will really be flawed and should not be listened too. At this point the debate can begin.

Curt Schilling actually ranks higher on Bill James's HOF Monitor list than Smoltz does. He doesn't have Smoltz's starter-closer-starter dominance, his unprecedented 150 saves/200 wins, or his one Cy Young, but other than that they are basically equal. Innings, starts, wins, strikeouts, era, and whip are all within a few percent of each other. I think that Schilling has to be in. He's certainly got the great peak and his longevity while not as good as some of the pitchers of his generation isn't bad. He's been great in the regular season, money in October, and in an era of relief specialists, he has thrown a ton of innings and complete games.

I'm a little less enthusiastic about Frank Thomas who ranks the highest of all remaining hitters on the monitor. Thomas was basically the best hitter in baseball for about 5 years in the mid 1990s, but he did it exclusively as a 1st base/DH type and after the run ended in 1997 Thomas struggled with injuries year in and year out and I just don't know if he had a dominant enough career at the plate to balance out his complete lack of skill in the field.

After Schilling and Thomas I don't think anyone has done enough to get into the conversation should their career end today. Obviously Pujols, Guerrero, and Chipper are well on their way as far as hitters go, and Mussina, Pettitte, and Santana are close on the pitcher side, but they aren't there yet. And David Wells and Kenny Rogers were very good, but not Hall of Fame material.

This leaves the relievers and guys who play difficult fielding positions, but don't have the hitting numbers to get in. Lets start with relievers. My thought has always been that relievers who never succeeded as starters should not be in the hall because if they were so good, why weren't they starters? Guys like Smoltz and Eckersley succeeded as starters, and Rivera was so incredibly dominant, especially in the post season, and often for multiple innings that it's likely he could have succeeded as a starter if given the chance. We shall continue with relievers in part two.

Further proof closers are overrated

Ten closers made the All Star team this year, beating out many more deserving starters. The closers were led by the Giants' Brian Wilson. Wilson leads the NL in saves, but is the definition of a mediocre relief pitcher. He has a WHIP of 1.40 and and ERA of 4.37 which are stats even a ROTO fantasy owner can understand. But he's an all star. If he had the same numbers, but was a starter with three times the innings like this guy, he wouldn't be in. He could be a much better reliever who didn't pitch the 9th, like this guy and not get in. He could even be a starter who was much better like this guy or this guy and not be in. But he's got saves, so he must be good, right?

It would be one thing if Wilson was a perennial star stopper having an off year like Billy Wagner sort of is. It would also be forgivable if Wilson was the lone Giant on the team, but again, this isn't the case as Lincecum was a lock to make the team and a good bet to start. This is yet another reason why the All Star game should count for nothing.

I hope Brian Wilson comes in the game with home field advantage in the series on the line.

Adam Dunn: Why Does Everyone Hate You?

It seems like everyone hates Adam Dunn: The Reds, the Reds' fans, JP Riccardi, and just about everyone on ESPN. I never understood any of this and with Dunn once again being shopped at the deadline, I'm hearing more and more of it. You hear everywhere that Dunn is a one dimensional player who chokes under the pressure and doesn't have a passion for the game. I for one would like to know where all this garbage came from. I would love to have Dunn on my team. He's obviously not the first guy I would pick, but he would be a good piece of a lineup.

The biggest Dunn hater I've heard is John Seibel, host of ESPN Radio's Sportsnation show. Since I have a 35 minute drive home everyday and I'm sick of XM 175's dynamic duo of stupidity, I thought I'd give Sportsnation a try. On today's show, Seibel, and his parter in idiocy, Orestes Destrade were discussing players who could possibly be on the move as the deadline approaches. Seibel took every chance he got to take a shot at Dunn whom he considers, to put it lightly, a liability for the Reds both in the field and at the plate. He continued to talk about how Dunn fails to come through with RISP and one time he went as far as to say "In the time we were talking, Dunn just struck out with runners at second and third, even though he's not playing."

Taking the two seconds needed to check Dunn's 2008 splits on Baseball Reference Dunn's "clutch" OPSes are: RISP: .872, 2 outs RISP 1.080, men on: .881, "Late and close": .928.

Corresponding stats for Mr. Clutch Derek Jeter: .815, .936, .754, .861.

As a hitter, Jeter quite frankly does not belong in the same sentence as Dunn. This guy is even more out of place and does not belong in the same thought process as Dunn though Seibel and Destrade think he'd be a better fit for a team looking to add a quality bat.

During the same show, idiot and idiota as I will now refer to them started discussing what a great fit Matt Holliday would be for the Angels, even going as far as discussing a Holliday for Gary Matthews Jr. and prospects trade. Lets ignore the fact the bringing in Matthews and his "the owner must have been really drunk to offer such a deal" contract would be the act of a crazy person, and take a break for some intelligent thinking...

...thinking...

Ok, I'm done. In the time it took to type 'thinking' twice, I thought of some potential problems with such a trade. The Angels have 6 outfielders on their 25 man roster, all of whom only play the outfield, all of whom have been productive in the past and all of whom except for Vlad Guerrero and maybe Torii Hunter have been awful in 2008. Only 3 Angels are currently slugging over .450 and all are right handed giving them a grand total of ZERO left handed power threats. Kotchman is their best left handed hitter, and he's OPSing a stellar .768. Despite the obvious fact that Matthews and Garret Anderson are bums, they still have gotten the vast majority of the PAs over Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera. Willits, one of the few Angels who can take a walk was rewarded for his solid rookie season by yet another absurd signing that dropped him on the depth chart. He's struggled this year, but has played less than 1/5 of the time Anderson has, and is just 5 walks behind him. Rivera it seems, has had his career all but destroyed by breaking his leg in winter ball two years ago.

So summing up all things for the Angels to consider before acquiring a hitter: they have 6 outfielders, they have a lineup with power coming only from the right side, and they don't walk enough. Wow, sounds like Holliday would be the perfect fit! He's a right handed outfielder who only walks slightly more than the average player (of course he would immediately become the Angels' leader in the category). Add to it the fact that he plays in Colorado which is still a good place for hitters, in the vastly inferior National League, and he's about to become a free agent and you have the recipe for one of the all time worst deadline trades. Unless of course the Angels could get rid of GMJ in the process.

Actually, come to think of it, you know who might be a good fit for the Angels? Adam Dunn.