2009 Yankees: New And Improved?
In 2008, there was no fall joy in the Bronx as a bunch of 13 year old missed seeing their team in the post season for the first time ever. The team with the biggest payroll stayed home. 2 $20+ million/year players and 8 more $10m+ players were not enough to keep playing in October. To make matters worse, the Rays, a team with 2 players over $5m and a payroll about that of Alex Rodriguez won the division 8 games clear of the Yanks. The big $200m whoopsies!
So the Empire declared war and what can only be described as a depression, went out and spent well over $400m to bring in CC, AJ, and Tex. The Yankees are being declared the favorites for the division as well as the series. The Yankees seem to be much improved. Or are they?
First lets start with how good (or bad) the 2008 Yankees actually were. On one hand, they outperformed their expected W-L by 2 wins, while getting career years from Mussina and most of the bullpen. As well as very solid years from Damon, ARod, Abreu, Joba, and Matsui and average years from Jeter and Pettitte. Key injuries to Posada and Wang hurt, but it probably cost them 5 wins max. What really brought the team down was the complete and total suckage of Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Kennedy, just about anyone else who pitched and the defense.
The Yankees addressed the pitching by adding Sabathia and Burnett, both of whom are far from sure things, especially Burnett who has logged over 200 innings twice in his career; both of his contract years. Yankee fans want to believe they'll get the CC from Milwaukee who absolutely crushed the NL for 3 months last year. Fat chance of that. CC will be going from one of the easiest divisions in baseball to the toughest, he won't have pitchers or the Pirates to beat up on, and he has a history of struggling in uncomfortable situations when he tries to over throw and has control problems. See 2007/2008 playoffs and April 2008.
The offense was addressed with Swisher and Texeira. The defense with Tex alone.
Let's just say CC matches Mussina's 2008 which I think is likely. They will probably get about the same out of Pettitte, Matsui and Jeter. Regressions are likely from Damon and the bullpen. That leaves starters 2, 3, and 4, as well 1st, 2nd, 3rd, left, and center. Starters 2-4 are Burnett, Joba, and Wang who are all wild cards. Joba and Burnett have lights out stuff but are injury risks to say the least. Wang is coming off a major injury and has never struck me as a dominant pitcher. His K rate is abysmal, his walk rate is average, and in front of that defense, his hit rate is going to be huge. I'd project him only as slightly above average. With AJ and Joba amounting to 320 or so innings at well above average.
At first, Tex should be a slight improvement over Giambi at the plate and a huge improvement in the field. Cano should bounce back a bit, and Posada should provide more than he did last year though a return to '07 form is most unlikely.
Were down to 3rd, left and center. Right now, I have no clue who will play center. Will it be Cabrera/Gardner? Swisher? Nady? some combination therof? What ever it is I am sure it will be below average as a whole because Swisher/Nady may be slightly above average with the bat, but will be atrocious with the glove and its the exact opposite with Cabrera/Gardner. Right now, I'd pencil in Cabrera/Gardner and the hole in the lineup that goes with it. Left will probably be Swisher, who is a bounce back candidate, but unlikely to top Abreu's 2008 production.
Which brings me to third. This may be the most interesting conundrum for the 2009 Yankees. Will ARoid be able to shake off the controversial offseason and put up MVP numbers to carry the team? Or will he struggle. Right now I'd have to say he'll regress a bit from 2008.
It looks to me like the Yankees are much improved in the rotation, worse in the bullpen, about the same in the lineup and slightly better on defense. It should be noted that the defense was among the worst in baseball.
Being generous, I'd put them at +8 wins which using expected W-L would tie them with 2008 Boston and place them slightly ahead of 2008 Tampa. But here's the thing: both of those teams improved as well. Boston added pitching depth with low risk-high reward pickups Smoltz, Penny, and Saito. And lost nothing. Bounce backs are likely from Beckett, Lowell, Varitek and Ortiz to go with slight regressions from Youk, Pedroia, and Lester. I'd put them at +2 minimum with a possibility to blow everyone out of the water if everything goes right.
The Rays lost no one important, added bullpen depth and the underrated Pat Burrell to DH. They also bring in stud prospect David Price as their FIFTH STARTER!
Both teams have much more organizational depth than the Yankees.
Projected lineups:
Bos/TB/NY
C. Varitek/Navarro/Posada
1b. Youk/Pena/Tex
2b. Pedroia/Iwamura/Cano
3b. Lowell/Longoria/ARoid
SS. Lowrie/Bartlett/Jeter
LF. Bay/Crawford/Damon
CF. Elsbury/Upton/Cabrera
RF. Drew/Gross/Swisher
DH. Ortiz/Burrell/Matsui
SP1. Beckett/Shields/Sabathia
SP2. Lester/Kazmir/Burnett
SP3. DiceK/Garza/Wang
SP4. Smoltz/Sonnanstine/Joba
SP5. Penny/Price/Pettitte
SP6. Wakefield/Hammel/Hughes
CL. Papelbon/Percival/Rivera
RP1. Masterson/Balfour/Marte
RP2. Okajima/Howell/Bruny
RP3. Saito/Wheeler/Alabadejo
RP4. Delcarman/Nelson/Veras
To me, this looks plain as day: Boston>TB>NY.
NY only has the advatage at 3rd and maybe 1st. Boston is the equal or better at every other position except perhaps catcher and short and Youk may actually be better than Tex at 1st. Sure Smoltz/Penny are injury risks, but the same can be said for Burnett and Joba who will be harder to replace. The Sox should run away with this division. They're loaded. Of course, they were last year too, and couldn't beat Tampa.
Tampa vs. NY is close, but Tampa's defense is sooooo much better than the Yankees, it's like they're playing a different sport. They are vastly superior at every position except first where Pena won the gold glove in 2008 (not that that means anything). The difference in defense could be as much as 80 or 90 runs, especially if NY plays Swisher or Nady in center. Thats 8 or 9 wins!
The lineups are much closer than the average fan thinks especially when you consider than all the key NY players except perhaps Tex and Swisher are likely past their primes whereas every Ray except Burrell is entering his. Longoria, Upton and Pena should at least match Tex, ARod and Damon while the rest of the Rays should top their Yankee counterparts.
That leaves pitching. Tampa's setup men are vastly superior, but Rivera's only rivals are Papelbon and Nathan for best closer in baseball. Sabathia is likely better than Shields. Kazmir and Burnett is about equal. Garza is at least equal to Wang, Sonnanstine is the equal of Pettitte, and Price is about at Joba's level.
Defense is the difference. The Yankee's stay home again in October and if any of their key players (ARod, Tex, Posada, Jeter, CC, the rotation, Rivera) gets hurt for a sizeable amount of time, they are completely effed and it won't even be close.
And I will be smiling.
So the Empire declared war and what can only be described as a depression, went out and spent well over $400m to bring in CC, AJ, and Tex. The Yankees are being declared the favorites for the division as well as the series. The Yankees seem to be much improved. Or are they?
First lets start with how good (or bad) the 2008 Yankees actually were. On one hand, they outperformed their expected W-L by 2 wins, while getting career years from Mussina and most of the bullpen. As well as very solid years from Damon, ARod, Abreu, Joba, and Matsui and average years from Jeter and Pettitte. Key injuries to Posada and Wang hurt, but it probably cost them 5 wins max. What really brought the team down was the complete and total suckage of Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Kennedy, just about anyone else who pitched and the defense.
The Yankees addressed the pitching by adding Sabathia and Burnett, both of whom are far from sure things, especially Burnett who has logged over 200 innings twice in his career; both of his contract years. Yankee fans want to believe they'll get the CC from Milwaukee who absolutely crushed the NL for 3 months last year. Fat chance of that. CC will be going from one of the easiest divisions in baseball to the toughest, he won't have pitchers or the Pirates to beat up on, and he has a history of struggling in uncomfortable situations when he tries to over throw and has control problems. See 2007/2008 playoffs and April 2008.
The offense was addressed with Swisher and Texeira. The defense with Tex alone.
Let's just say CC matches Mussina's 2008 which I think is likely. They will probably get about the same out of Pettitte, Matsui and Jeter. Regressions are likely from Damon and the bullpen. That leaves starters 2, 3, and 4, as well 1st, 2nd, 3rd, left, and center. Starters 2-4 are Burnett, Joba, and Wang who are all wild cards. Joba and Burnett have lights out stuff but are injury risks to say the least. Wang is coming off a major injury and has never struck me as a dominant pitcher. His K rate is abysmal, his walk rate is average, and in front of that defense, his hit rate is going to be huge. I'd project him only as slightly above average. With AJ and Joba amounting to 320 or so innings at well above average.
At first, Tex should be a slight improvement over Giambi at the plate and a huge improvement in the field. Cano should bounce back a bit, and Posada should provide more than he did last year though a return to '07 form is most unlikely.
Were down to 3rd, left and center. Right now, I have no clue who will play center. Will it be Cabrera/Gardner? Swisher? Nady? some combination therof? What ever it is I am sure it will be below average as a whole because Swisher/Nady may be slightly above average with the bat, but will be atrocious with the glove and its the exact opposite with Cabrera/Gardner. Right now, I'd pencil in Cabrera/Gardner and the hole in the lineup that goes with it. Left will probably be Swisher, who is a bounce back candidate, but unlikely to top Abreu's 2008 production.
Which brings me to third. This may be the most interesting conundrum for the 2009 Yankees. Will ARoid be able to shake off the controversial offseason and put up MVP numbers to carry the team? Or will he struggle. Right now I'd have to say he'll regress a bit from 2008.
It looks to me like the Yankees are much improved in the rotation, worse in the bullpen, about the same in the lineup and slightly better on defense. It should be noted that the defense was among the worst in baseball.
Being generous, I'd put them at +8 wins which using expected W-L would tie them with 2008 Boston and place them slightly ahead of 2008 Tampa. But here's the thing: both of those teams improved as well. Boston added pitching depth with low risk-high reward pickups Smoltz, Penny, and Saito. And lost nothing. Bounce backs are likely from Beckett, Lowell, Varitek and Ortiz to go with slight regressions from Youk, Pedroia, and Lester. I'd put them at +2 minimum with a possibility to blow everyone out of the water if everything goes right.
The Rays lost no one important, added bullpen depth and the underrated Pat Burrell to DH. They also bring in stud prospect David Price as their FIFTH STARTER!
Both teams have much more organizational depth than the Yankees.
Projected lineups:
Bos/TB/NY
C. Varitek/Navarro/Posada
1b. Youk/Pena/Tex
2b. Pedroia/Iwamura/Cano
3b. Lowell/Longoria/ARoid
SS. Lowrie/Bartlett/Jeter
LF. Bay/Crawford/Damon
CF. Elsbury/Upton/Cabrera
RF. Drew/Gross/Swisher
DH. Ortiz/Burrell/Matsui
SP1. Beckett/Shields/Sabathia
SP2. Lester/Kazmir/Burnett
SP3. DiceK/Garza/Wang
SP4. Smoltz/Sonnanstine/Joba
SP5. Penny/Price/Pettitte
SP6. Wakefield/Hammel/Hughes
CL. Papelbon/Percival/Rivera
RP1. Masterson/Balfour/Marte
RP2. Okajima/Howell/Bruny
RP3. Saito/Wheeler/Alabadejo
RP4. Delcarman/Nelson/Veras
To me, this looks plain as day: Boston>TB>NY.
NY only has the advatage at 3rd and maybe 1st. Boston is the equal or better at every other position except perhaps catcher and short and Youk may actually be better than Tex at 1st. Sure Smoltz/Penny are injury risks, but the same can be said for Burnett and Joba who will be harder to replace. The Sox should run away with this division. They're loaded. Of course, they were last year too, and couldn't beat Tampa.
Tampa vs. NY is close, but Tampa's defense is sooooo much better than the Yankees, it's like they're playing a different sport. They are vastly superior at every position except first where Pena won the gold glove in 2008 (not that that means anything). The difference in defense could be as much as 80 or 90 runs, especially if NY plays Swisher or Nady in center. Thats 8 or 9 wins!
The lineups are much closer than the average fan thinks especially when you consider than all the key NY players except perhaps Tex and Swisher are likely past their primes whereas every Ray except Burrell is entering his. Longoria, Upton and Pena should at least match Tex, ARod and Damon while the rest of the Rays should top their Yankee counterparts.
That leaves pitching. Tampa's setup men are vastly superior, but Rivera's only rivals are Papelbon and Nathan for best closer in baseball. Sabathia is likely better than Shields. Kazmir and Burnett is about equal. Garza is at least equal to Wang, Sonnanstine is the equal of Pettitte, and Price is about at Joba's level.
Defense is the difference. The Yankee's stay home again in October and if any of their key players (ARod, Tex, Posada, Jeter, CC, the rotation, Rivera) gets hurt for a sizeable amount of time, they are completely effed and it won't even be close.
And I will be smiling.
posted by Andrew Manning at
1:16 PM
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