Monday, March 22, 2010

How to save baseball and a radical re-alignment idea

Baseball is close to broken. Now that the moneyball revolution is over and cash is once again king, the only way small market teams can win is a trade their stars for a truckload of prospects and hope everyone comes up at the same time. The Marlins and Rays are the best examples of this recently but even if a team is smart, it's really hard. Three years ago, the Indians were a budding dynasty with stars like CC Sabathia, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez who came up together. A few disastrous contracts later and they're rebuilding. Right now we can divide baseball teams into those with money and those without and those who are smart with their money and those who are not:

Money + Smart (the perennials)
Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Angels, Braves

No Money + Smart (the usually good may be greats)
Twins, Indians, Rays, Ms, A's, Rangers (past few years), Marlins, Brewers, Rockies, DBacks (sort of)

Money + Dumb (Pretenders who may catch lightning in a bottle)
Mets, Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, White Sox, Cubs, Astros, Orioles, Jays

No Money + Dumb (the hopeless cases)
Royals, Pirates, Reds, Padres, Nats

With the exception of the Padres, none of the hopeless cases have made the playoffs in the last 15 years. The O's and Jays are dumb and in the division with two juggernauts so they are also essentially hopeless.

Why there's such a huge cash discrepancy:
The NFL is discussing a season without a salary cap which my friends think will turn it into baseball with big teams like the Cowboys, Giants, and Bears getting the motherload of the talent. This is untrue because the vast majority of NFL revenue comes from a lucrative TV contract as well as officially licensed merchandise which is split 32 ways. And since almost every NFL game sells out, the small differences in local revenue would do little to tip the balance of power. This will not work for baseball as the national TV contract pales in comparison to local media revenues, and most teams do not sell out every game.

What to do about it:
Huge local media contracts help teams like the Yankees and Red Sox stay ahead of everyone else, and loyal fan bases like ST. Louis and Philly bring them (while slightly less) enough revenue to stay at the top. Smaller markets don't have this ability. Baseball needs to gobble up all media rights, sell them in each individual market to the highest bidder and split the cash 30 ways. This will help level the playing field a lot, but big markets will still have a cash advantage.

Look, the players union is the strongest in America and barring a long strike there will be no salary cap or salary floor. However, all league revenue generated from the media contracts should have to be spent on team expenses, not owner's pockets. I think this can be a compromise between the sides. But still a salary cap won't happen. Therefore the best way to deal with the big market teams is to introduce more competition. So here's my idea:

Radical Re-alignment:

First and foremost lets get rid of two things that just piss me off: inter-league play and the wild card. We'll shuffle some teams around and make 8 divisions.

Second, we need teams where people watch baseball and have money. I would really like to see a team in Tokyo, but the flight, even from california, is just too long. Therefore, lets add two teams: one in Brooklyn and another in Las Vegas. They will both be AL teams and I suspect they will be successful baseball fan bases. Then we'll suffle teams a bit to make eight four team divisions like the NFL. You will need to win your division to make the playoffs. No more Yankees/Red Sox playoff series. Here's what they will look like:

AL:
Northeast
NY Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Brooklyn

Midwest
Tigers
Indians
White Sox
Twins

Central
Royals
Blue Jays
Astros
Rangers

West
Mariners
Angels
A's
Las Vegas

NL
Northeast
Phillies
Mets
Pirates
Nationals

Southeast
Marlins
Rays
Braves
Reds

Midwest
Cardinals
Brewers
Cubs
Rockies

West
Giants
Dodgers
D-Backs
Padres


Yes I know the geography isn't perfect and that it would further dilute the talent pool. But the balance of power is spread out again. You would bring back the great pennant races, and it would create some truly bitter rivalries. I would also like to see them start calling the high strike again and possibly take out the DH. We'll compromise with the union by adding two teams a expanding the active roster to 26 players.