The mythical mark: .400

We here it every year: is this the year someone hits .400? Guys have flirted with it: Carew in '77, Brett in '80, Gwynn in '94, Gwynn and Walker a few more times in the late '90s, and most recently Bonds in '02 and Ichiro in '04. But no one has done it since Teddy Ballgame in 1941. Before that you have to go back to Hornsby in the mid 1920s. Will it ever happen again? Probably not. In this day and age it would take essentially the perfect storm. If someone were to do it while playing close to everyday they would almost certainly have at least 4 of these 5 traits:

1. They would not strike out very much.
Nothing kills a high batting average more than Ks. Strikeouts do not make you a bad player, but they count against batting average and 100% of the time when you don't put the ball in play, you don't get a hit. When Ted did it, he struck out just 27 times in 456 at bats. Of the players who struck out more than 130 times last year, just two: Curtis Granderson (.302) and BJ Upton (.300) hit over .300. A .400 hitter would almost certainly have to strike out less than 100 times, probably less than 50. So look for a hitter without many wiffs.

2. They would hit with a decent amount of power.
A hitter that doesn't strikeout much puts a lot of balls into play and the more power a hitter has the less chance the fielders have to make a play on the ball. It is common knowledge that hard hit balls are harder to field, but there is also a better chance that they will land somewhere that a fielder can't get to it. Homeruns, doubles, and triples are usually balls that were hit too hard for a fielder to get to. Ted hit 37 homers and slugged .735 during his year. So look for a player with 20+ homers and a slugging percentage of at least .500.

3. They would take a decent amount of walks.
The hitter would probably need to take an above average amount of walks for two reasons: first, a walk decreases the number of at bats which decreases the total number of hits needed. This helps combat the law of large numbers which will eventually drop a player below the .400 mark. Second, a walk means that the hitter did not swing at a ball out of the strike zone which of course is harder to make solid contact with than a strike. Ted had 147 walks when he hit .400. So look for a player with at least 75 walks, probably well over 100.

4. They would be a left handed hitter.
A left handed hitter, especially one who sits out against tough lefties has a sizable advantage on his right handed counterpart. First, a lefty will face many more opposite handed pitchers than a righty which helps neutralize pitchers which nasty breaking pitches. Second a lefty has the advantage of hitting to the hole created on the right side of the infield when a runner is being held on first. This is more of an advantage for players batting 3rd or 4th with a fast runner who is often on base batting in front of him. Finally, a lefty is a step and a half closer to first which gives him a slight advantage when beating out ground balls. This advantage is partially offset by the fact that a lefty will hit more balls to the right side of the infield, but on high hoppers or slow hit balls to the left side, a lefty has a clear advantage that could amount to 1-2% more hits over the season - the difference between a .370 hitter and a .380 or .390 hitter. Ted Williams was of course, a left handed batter.

5. They would have at least average speed.
You have to beat out at least some ground balls to have a chance and average speed will get you there. Ted did not have great speed, but hit a considerable amount of triples leading up to his .400 season, so you'd have to think he at least had average speed.

Finally, you would have to be extremely lucky. Having fielders take hits away from you and hitting bullets right at fielders hurts a lot. Seeing eye singles, and bloopers help. This is where luck comes into play. Watered down pitching doesn't hurt either.

So who are the most likely .400 candidates? Lets start by looking at the active career leaders in average:

1. Ichiro .334
2. Albert Pujols .332
3. Todd Helton .332
4. Vladimir Guerrero .325
5. Derek Jeter .317
6. Nomar Garciaparra .315
7. Manny Ramirez .313
8. Miguel Cabrera .312
9. Magglio Ordonez .312
10. Mike Piazza .308
11. Chipper .307
12. ARod .306

Pujols probably has the best chance of all the hitters on this list. The one knock on him is that he's right handed. If he were a lefty, he'd win the batting title almost every year and it would be an annual question of "Is this the year?" ARod and Cabrera, two similar players both strikeout too much. Ichiro does not have near enough power or patience - he'd need almost 300 hits in a season to hit .400. Likewise, Guerrero is not selective enough and the rest of the guys on the list are probably too old to take a run at it.

Running threw the guys who did not qualify for the list I come up with one guy who stands above the rest: Chase Utley. He needs to cut down the strikeouts a bit and more walks wouldn't hurt, but Utley has all the right stuff. He's got good power, above average speed, decent patience, decent contact, he's lefthanded , he hits behind speedsters Rollins and Victorino which should give him a lot of chances with a hole to hit to, and he hits in front of Howard and Burrell which should discourage pitchers from pitching around him. He also tends to hit to all fields which should prevent defenses from playing a shift on him. Granted it's a long shot: he'd need a perfect year, and even that might not be enough, but he has the best chance of current players to do it.