Wednesday, October 03, 2007

The Playoffs

When looking at the playoff series, I see one no brainer, two where I have a good feeling and one that is pretty much a toss up. Here we go:

Red Sox (96-66) vs. Angels (94-68)
This one would have been pretty much dead even, if both teams were at full strength and had it been played a month ago, I would actually have taken the Halos. That is not the case. The Red Sox can trot out Beckett to negate or even top Lackey and come back with Dice-K and Schilling in games 2 and 3. The long series allows them to be a bit more liberal with Papelbon and put Wakefield in the bullpen. They also have Man-Ram and Youkilis back in the line up.
The Angels on the other hand, limp into the playoffs without Gary HGH Matthews or Bart Colon and with an injury to Vlad that will restrict him to DH duties.

Starting Pitching:
Red Sox: Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling
Angels: Lackey, Escobar, Weaver
Advantage: Push

Lineups:
The Red Sox can trot out 7 solid, patient hitters, 2 of which are among the best in the game, and have wild cards in Lugo and Crisp that could potentially be x-factors.
The Angels have a lineup that relies too heavily on Guerrero, batting average and speed. They are not a lineup that will force Boston's starters to throw a lot of pitches, nor are they built for the big inning. Their only hope is to nickel and dime the Sox to death, living and dying with the stolen base and aggressive base running.
Advantage: Boston and its not even close.

Bullpens:
The Red Sox have struggled lately, but they have a lot of potential. They have a shutdown closer in Papelbon who they can afford to go to early, a solid set up man in Okajima and a wild card in Gagne. Plus they can go to the flutter ball if need be, a pitch that the free swinging Angels should struggle with mightily late in a game.
The Angels have not had as strong a relief corps this year as they have in the past. They have K-Rod, Shields, Speier and Oliver plus converted starters Santana and Saunders. Good, but not as good as it should be.
Advantage: Push in a category the Angels will need a lot to win.

Bench/Defense/Management/Intangibles
The Red Sox have Ortiz and quite frankly thats all they need, but they also have Francona who made all the right moves in 2004.
Socsia has also won a World Series, but I have never liked his managing style. He will run into too many outs to win this series.
Advantage: Red Sox

Prediction: Sox in 4. I think the Angels will win either the Escobar game or the Weaver game, but be unable to beat Beckett. They will be lucky to score 10 runs in the series.

Indians (96-66) vs. Yankees-MFYs (94-68)
This is a pretty evenly matched series. The Indians had a better regular season record and have played great down the stretch. However, they have lost all 6 games vs. the MFYs this year.

Starting Pitching:
The Indians boast 2 CY Young candidates that have had fantastic second halves. Their 3rd starter, Westbrook, has also been solid down the stretch.
The MFYs have experience and one solid youngster in Wang, but little else. They will rely on finesse rather than pure stuff. There is a lot of uncertainty here because who knows what they will get from Clemens and Mussina?
Advantage: Indians

Lineup:
The Indians are very solid 1-9, having solidified 2nd and the corner outfield spots down the stretch. They have a good mix of left and right handed hitters and don't rely on one player to carry the load though they have players capable of doing just that. Hafner, Sizemore and Martinez all have that ability and have been great down the stretch. They have a good mix of speed and power and work the count well.
The Yankees boast the majors best lineup. MVP candidates Posada and Rodriguez lead the way, but are complimented well by Abreu, Cabrera, Damon, Jeter and friends. There's no real hole here, but it is the same lineup that was dominated by the Tigers a year ago, so anything can happen.
Advantage: Yankees, but its close

Bullpen:
The Indians bullpen is great with the exception of the shaky guy closing the games. They should be able to bridge the 7th and 8th innings with little difficulty and have a slew of lefties to send against Giambi, Damon and Abreu. The closer is the question especially since he blew up sky high earlier this year.
The Yankees are the exact opposite. The front of their pen is a question mark, but the end is pretty much lights out. With the greatest closer in history and Joba at the back, the Indians better hope to get their runs early.
Advantage: push

Bench/Defense/Management/Intagibles
No real big difference here. The Yankees have experience, but that hasn't mattered recently. The Tribe has a slight advantage on defense, and the benches are basically even.
Advantage: Yankees, based solely on experience

Prediction: Tribe in 5. I just don't think that the Yankees can beat Sabathia or Carmona in Cleveland. Even if they do, they had better hope that Mussina and Clemens can hold that lineup at bay in the Bronx.

Short blips on the NL (I'll do a more detailed one later):
Rockies vs. Phillies

Prediction: Rockies in 4: That lineup is every bit as good as the Phillies, no matter what they say. They will face mediocre Phillie pitching with the exception of Cole Hamells who will go up against the very underrated Jeff Francis. They'll split in Philly and win both at Coors.

Cubs vs. DBacks
Prediction: On paper, the Cubs should win this no problem. Arizona's lineup is pathetic and with the Cubs going with a 3 man rotation, they have no major holes. Still I don't see it happening and I think the DBacks will win in 5 when Webb beats that right hand dominant lineup for the second time.

Labels: ,