Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Adam Dunn: Why Does Everyone Hate You?

It seems like everyone hates Adam Dunn: The Reds, the Reds' fans, JP Riccardi, and just about everyone on ESPN. I never understood any of this and with Dunn once again being shopped at the deadline, I'm hearing more and more of it. You hear everywhere that Dunn is a one dimensional player who chokes under the pressure and doesn't have a passion for the game. I for one would like to know where all this garbage came from. I would love to have Dunn on my team. He's obviously not the first guy I would pick, but he would be a good piece of a lineup.

The biggest Dunn hater I've heard is John Seibel, host of ESPN Radio's Sportsnation show. Since I have a 35 minute drive home everyday and I'm sick of XM 175's dynamic duo of stupidity, I thought I'd give Sportsnation a try. On today's show, Seibel, and his parter in idiocy, Orestes Destrade were discussing players who could possibly be on the move as the deadline approaches. Seibel took every chance he got to take a shot at Dunn whom he considers, to put it lightly, a liability for the Reds both in the field and at the plate. He continued to talk about how Dunn fails to come through with RISP and one time he went as far as to say "In the time we were talking, Dunn just struck out with runners at second and third, even though he's not playing."

Taking the two seconds needed to check Dunn's 2008 splits on Baseball Reference Dunn's "clutch" OPSes are: RISP: .872, 2 outs RISP 1.080, men on: .881, "Late and close": .928.

Corresponding stats for Mr. Clutch Derek Jeter: .815, .936, .754, .861.

As a hitter, Jeter quite frankly does not belong in the same sentence as Dunn. This guy is even more out of place and does not belong in the same thought process as Dunn though Seibel and Destrade think he'd be a better fit for a team looking to add a quality bat.

During the same show, idiot and idiota as I will now refer to them started discussing what a great fit Matt Holliday would be for the Angels, even going as far as discussing a Holliday for Gary Matthews Jr. and prospects trade. Lets ignore the fact the bringing in Matthews and his "the owner must have been really drunk to offer such a deal" contract would be the act of a crazy person, and take a break for some intelligent thinking...

...thinking...

Ok, I'm done. In the time it took to type 'thinking' twice, I thought of some potential problems with such a trade. The Angels have 6 outfielders on their 25 man roster, all of whom only play the outfield, all of whom have been productive in the past and all of whom except for Vlad Guerrero and maybe Torii Hunter have been awful in 2008. Only 3 Angels are currently slugging over .450 and all are right handed giving them a grand total of ZERO left handed power threats. Kotchman is their best left handed hitter, and he's OPSing a stellar .768. Despite the obvious fact that Matthews and Garret Anderson are bums, they still have gotten the vast majority of the PAs over Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera. Willits, one of the few Angels who can take a walk was rewarded for his solid rookie season by yet another absurd signing that dropped him on the depth chart. He's struggled this year, but has played less than 1/5 of the time Anderson has, and is just 5 walks behind him. Rivera it seems, has had his career all but destroyed by breaking his leg in winter ball two years ago.

So summing up all things for the Angels to consider before acquiring a hitter: they have 6 outfielders, they have a lineup with power coming only from the right side, and they don't walk enough. Wow, sounds like Holliday would be the perfect fit! He's a right handed outfielder who only walks slightly more than the average player (of course he would immediately become the Angels' leader in the category). Add to it the fact that he plays in Colorado which is still a good place for hitters, in the vastly inferior National League, and he's about to become a free agent and you have the recipe for one of the all time worst deadline trades. Unless of course the Angels could get rid of GMJ in the process.

Actually, come to think of it, you know who might be a good fit for the Angels? Adam Dunn.

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Monday, February 26, 2007

All underrated team

Here is the rival team to last week's all overrated team. Most casual fans would probably pick this team to lose in a head to head series, but I think that this team would not only be better, It would be a lot better, and probably win 7 or 8 7 game series out of 10.

Catcher Brian McCann - Braves
McCann is best known for homering off Roger Clemens in the 2005 post season, but he turned into a star in 2006, funny thing is the Braves finally missed the playoffs, so no one noticed. McCann is the only catcher that I think has a chance to rival Joe Mauers dominance of the position for the next ten years. Someone else may emerge, but as of now only McCann, Victor Martinez, Michael Barret and Jorge Posada are close to Mauer's production at the plate. Barret will be 30 this year and Posada will be 35. Both have likely already peaked. Martinez can hit, but can't throw out a base runner to save his life, and there are reports that he may be moving to first base in the future. McCann will be 23 (younger than Mauer) and out performed him in OPS and RC/27 and was just behind him in EQA.

First Base: Travis Hafner - Indians
With apologies to Lance Berkman and Nick Johnson, Hafner might be the most underrated player in all of baseball. His production was matched only be Albert Pujols last season and he didn't even make the all star team. Hafner led all major leaguers in EQA with an incredible .355, was second to Pujols in OPS, 1st in RC/27, and second to Manny Ramirez in OBP by less than .01. What more does the guy have to do?

Second Base: Orlando Hudson - Diamond Backs
Chase Utley, the best player at the position finally started getting credit this year, and many of the best second basemen are established stars, but you never hear about Hudson who put together a hell of a year in the desert. He posted solid numbers with a .354 OBP and a .454 SLG, all while playing stellar defense. A very solid player at a position that is thin.

Third Base: Garret Atkins - Rockies
At one of the deepest positions in the majors, it is hard to stand out but is a crime when you post a line of .409 OBP, .556 SLG, .310 EQA, 8.4 RC/27 and an outstanding VORP of 62.7 good for 17th in the majors. According to VORP, Atkins was better than AL MVP Justin Morneau, $252 million dollar man Alex Rodriguez and New York Met stars Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Jose Reyes. Atkins may never eclipse the shadow of Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, ARod or Wright, but he should be in the conversation.

Shortstop: Carlos Guillen - Tigers
With apologies to Bill Hall, Guillen was virtually unknown among casual fans prior to the Tigers playoff run, but he, not Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Joel Zumaya or Magglio Ordonez was the key to the team's success. When he was out during August, the team stumbled bad enough to lose the huge lead it had built up over the summer, and upon his return, the team went on a very improbable playoff run to the world series. When looking at his stats, it's easy to see why. Guillen was second only to Derek Jeter among full time shortstop in EQA, OPS, OBP, and RC/27 and second to Hall in SLG. He also is a better fielder than people give him credit for. DMB rate him as average range, the same rating given to Tejada, Reyes, Rollins, and gold glovers Vizquel and Jeter. DMB is not perfect, but I have found that they do their homework when rating a player's range. They were one of the first to praise Andruw Jones's exceptional range in center, and also one of the first to point out that it had diminished. Guillen does make a lot of errors, but at the toughest position on the field, that's understandable.

Centerfield: Mike Cameron - Padres
A tough position to rate because centerfielders are almost overrated by definition as they are usually the most athletic player on the field. Cameron has somehow managed to do it. He has had some bad years, but for the most part he has put together a good career despite getting traded every two years or so. He has been traded for Ken Griffey and Paul Konerko among others. He had another solid year while playing in cavernous Petco Park posting a line of: .355 OBP, .482 SLG, 6.3 RC/27 and .291 EQA all while being perhaps the best centerfielder in the game.

Outfield: Matt Holliday - Rockies
I remember when all the Rockies were overrated (Bichette, Castilla anyone?) but today it seems they are underrated. Holliday just like Atkins was one of the top players at his position last year and it seems like no one noticed. Holliday posted an OBP of .387, a SLG of .586, an EQA of .304 an a RC/27 of 8.0. He also did ok in traditional categories with 10 SB, 34 HR, and 119 R. In short, he was considerably better than Alfonso Soriano who was treated like the greatest thing since sliced bread when he hit the market this winter.

Outfield: Jason Bay - Pirates
To be fair, Bay has gotten some love from the press. In part because the Pirates are so bad, but in 2005, he was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball and he was never acknowledged for it. Bay posted a line of .396, .532, .309 and 8.2. Very comparable to Holliday. Some outfielders like Bay seem to get crucified for striking out so much. Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, are among them, but did anyone notice that Soriano struck out 160 times last year while batting lead off? Or how about Ryan Howard and his 181 ks? It never comes up, but Burrell especially has almost been run out of town for striking out a mere 131 times last season.

SP: John Lackey - Angels
How Roy Oswalt has not won a Cy Young this late in his career is truly astonishing, but the fact that Lackey has flown under the radar the last two years while pitching in Anahiem gives him the nod. Lackey posted an OPS against of .671 last season, better than Pedro Martinez, Jason Schmidt, John Smoltz and the aforementioned Oswalt. He also had a VORP of 47.1, 18th in baseball among starters. Lackey is not a guy who will contend for the Cy Young every year, and he shouldn't be treated like one, but he is definitely a solid front of the rotation guy who could have a year where he does put up Cy Young numbers.

RP: Joe Nathan - Twins
Hard to make the argument that he is underrated, but he actually is. He has been the best closer in baseball for the last 3 years, but still has had a hard time breaking into that top tier of the discussion that includes Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, KRod and Trevor Hoffman. Nathan was absolutely lights out last year allowing 7.2 R/9, .454 OPS, and striking out 12.5 per 9. Basically he turned every hitter he faced into a hitter of Tom Glavine's production.

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